Market expectations just flipped hard.
Odds of a Fed rate hike in October now sitting at 53%. A year ago, traders were pricing in 3 cuts by October 2026.
If the Fed actually hikes next month, we're looking at rates 125 basis points higher than what was priced in. That's not a minor adjustment, that's a total re-pricing of the curve.
This matters for everything: borrowing costs, equity valuations, sector rotation. Growth stocks hate higher-for-longer. Financials and value names start looking more interesting. Bond yields keep climbing.
The Fed's not done. Market's finally waking up to that reality.
Odds of a Fed rate hike in October now sitting at 53%. A year ago, traders were pricing in 3 cuts by October 2026.
If the Fed actually hikes next month, we're looking at rates 125 basis points higher than what was priced in. That's not a minor adjustment, that's a total re-pricing of the curve.
This matters for everything: borrowing costs, equity valuations, sector rotation. Growth stocks hate higher-for-longer. Financials and value names start looking more interesting. Bond yields keep climbing.
The Fed's not done. Market's finally waking up to that reality.
