๐ฅ FOMC September: The Real Trade Starts After the Rate Decision
#FedRateWatch
The September FOMC is different this time: Kevin Warshโnot Jerome Powellโis leading the Fed, and this is his first FOMC meeting as Chair.
Markets are pricing roughly a 91โ93% probability of a 25bp hike, taking rates from 3.50%โ3.75% to 3.75%โ4.00%.
But the bigger question is what comes next.
August CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. PPI climbed 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY. Meanwhile, August payrolls increased 162,000 and unemployment remained 4.1%.
That is not a clean disinflation story.
Markets are already showing the pressure: the 10Y Treasury yield has moved above 5%, while oil remains above $100/barrel.
๐ฏ What Iโm watching tonight
25bp hike + hawkish Warsh:
Higher yields + stronger DXY could pressure BTC, stocks and gold.
25bp hike + softer guidance:
If yields and DXY fall after the decision, risk assets could react sharply higher.
For BTC, Iโm watching $75K, DXY near 99.6, and the 10Y yield around 5% as the immediate reaction levels.
The hike may already be priced in.
The surprise will come from the path after it.
#fomc #BTC #GOLD #trading
#FedRateWatch
The September FOMC is different this time: Kevin Warshโnot Jerome Powellโis leading the Fed, and this is his first FOMC meeting as Chair.
Markets are pricing roughly a 91โ93% probability of a 25bp hike, taking rates from 3.50%โ3.75% to 3.75%โ4.00%.
But the bigger question is what comes next.
August CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. PPI climbed 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY. Meanwhile, August payrolls increased 162,000 and unemployment remained 4.1%.
That is not a clean disinflation story.
Markets are already showing the pressure: the 10Y Treasury yield has moved above 5%, while oil remains above $100/barrel.
๐ฏ What Iโm watching tonight
25bp hike + hawkish Warsh:
Higher yields + stronger DXY could pressure BTC, stocks and gold.
25bp hike + softer guidance:
If yields and DXY fall after the decision, risk assets could react sharply higher.
For BTC, Iโm watching $75K, DXY near 99.6, and the 10Y yield around 5% as the immediate reaction levels.
The hike may already be priced in.
The surprise will come from the path after it.
#fomc #BTC #GOLD #trading