bitcoincycleanalysis

$BTC | Pi Cycle Top i ti n fi silẹ ni oke akoko ti o ṣẹṣẹ julọ. O fẹrẹ to oṣu mẹfa lẹhin ifasilẹ, BTC wa ni US$150,220 pẹlu atọka naa ti n tutu kedere.

Pi Cycle Top jẹ ohun-elo ìṣàkóso oke-àkókò (cycle-top) ti o rọrun julọ lórí-ìlú-on-chain: apapọ gbigbe ọjọ 111 (111-day moving average) kọja lókè MA ọjọ 350 ní igba 2. O ti ṣiṣẹ́ nitosi julọ awọn oke-àkókò BTC pataki lati ọdun 2013, pẹlu Oṣù Kẹrin 2013, Oṣù kọkànlá 2013, Oṣù kejì 2017, àti Oṣù Kẹrin 2021 (iwoyi oke 2021-11 ko ṣe agbejade ifihan tuntun kan, ihamọ tí a gbasilẹ).

Nínú àgbéyèwò ìṣàkóso SMM panel “48-signal”, a fi Pi Cycle Top ṣe gẹgẹ bí ìjẹrisi ipele kan ṣoṣo (single-tier confirmation), kì í ṣe ìfarahan kan ṣoṣo (standalone trigger).

Àwòrán pipe, ilana ìmúlò, àti gbogbo ìtàn ifasilẹ kọọkan: https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-pi-cycle-top-indicator/

Ka gẹgẹ bi ọjọ 25 May 2026.

#BitcoinCycleAnalysis #OnChain #PiCycleTop #SatoshiMacro

$BTC | Imephu eshisayo ye-200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) iyinkomba yomjikelezo yesikhathi eside enganakwa kakhulu kunazo zonke esesetshenziswa ngokuqhubekayo. Yaduma okokuqala nguPhillip Swift ngo-2019. Indlela yokusebenza: faka umbala wokuvala (weekly close) ngayinye ngokusekelwe kumaphesenti ayo ebangeni ukusuka ku-200-week moving average. Ngaphansi kuka-2x kwe-200WMA ngokomlando kumaka ukunqwabelana komjikelezo; ngaphezu kuka-6x ngokomlando kumaka injabulo yomjikelezo.

Kungani i-200WMA-distance ratio isebenza. I-200WMA ibamba phansi intengo yesikhathi eside ebiyibambe kuwo wonke umjikelezo we-Bitcoin kusukela ngo-2013. I-ratio phakathi kwendawo (spot) ne-200WMA ikutshela ukuthi intengo yamanje ingakanani “yamaningi” uma iqhathaniswa nesisekelo sesakhiwo. Izindawo eziluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kakhulu (eziseduze no-1x noma ngezansi) zihlangana ezansi komjikelezo. Izindawo ezibomvu (ezingu-5x noma ngaphezulu) zihlangana phezulu komjikelezo.

Iphethini yomlando phakathi kokushintsha okubonakele emjikelezweni we-BTC:
- Phezulu komjikelezo ka-2013-12: heatmap ebomvu kakhulu, i-ratio cishe engu-5x ye-200WMA
- Phezulu komjikelezo ka-2017-12: heatmap ebomvu, i-ratio cishe engu-4.4x
- Phezulu komjikelezo ka-2021-04: heatmap ewolintshi, i-ratio cishe engu-3.2x (iphansi kunezikhathi zangaphambilini, ehambisana nethesis yokwehla-amplitude)
- Ezansi komjikelezo ka-2015-01, 2018-12, 2022-11: zonke zaphuma nge-heatmap eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kakhulu, i-ratio ingu-1.2x noma ngezansi

Kubahlali base-Australia isendlalelo esisebenzayo: i-200WMA heatmap iyona signal ecacile yokuthi “ingabe lena phansi komjikelezo” ekunqumeni ubukhulu (sizing) bokuthenga/ukulwela. Lapho i-heatmap iba luhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kakhulu, iwashi lokufanelekela le-CGT elinesikhathi eside (ukubamba okungenani izinyanga ezingu-12 ukuze uthole isaphulelo samaphesenti angu-50) liqala kusukela ngosuku lokuthenga. Ukungena ngaphambi kwesikhathi phakathi kwezindawo eziluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kakhulu kusetha ama-parcels ukuze ukusabalalisa komjikelezo olandelayo kwehle NGEMVA komkhawulo wezinyanga ezingu-12, okuyiphutha elibiza kakhulu lesikhathi okufanele ligwenywe ngesikhathi se-AU 47 percent top marginal rate.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-200-week-ma-heatmap/

#BitcoinCycleAnalysis #OnChain #SatoshiMacro

$BTC

Il-Mudell SatoshiMacro huwa mudell ta' konflużjoni ta' ċiklu tal-Bitcoin ta' 48 sinjal fuq sitt livelli peżati: Ħin taċ-Ċiklu, Valwazzjoni, Sentiment, Rotazzjoni, Miner, Macro. Ir-raġuni li jeżisti: l-ebda indikatur wieħed ma jgħaddi minn kull ċiklu. Pi Cycle qabeż l-ogħla echo tal-2021-11. MVRV u Mayer kull wieħed għandhom punti għomja. Il-konflużjoni hija t-tweġiba tal-istituzzjonijiet—l-istess loġika ta' li ma tikkalkulax ir-risk off b'numru wieħed biss ta' VaR.

Huwa kalibrat kontra kull top u bottom tal-BTC mill-2013, 7 minn 7 fiż-żona. Limitazzjoni onesta: huwa klassifikatur ta' pożizzjoni, mhux tbassir, u l-qari USD huwa sintetizzat minn data nattiva tal-AUD b'intervall magħruf ta' 1 sa 2 fil-mija f'jiem volatili.

B'xejn, mibni minn trader istituzzjonali ta' qabel f'Sydney: https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/satoshimacro-model/

#SatoshiMacro #BitcoinCycleAnalysis #OnChain #Bitcoin

$BTC | Pi Cycle Bottom mangrupikeun pasangan anu kirang dibahas tina indikator Pi Cycle Top anu langkung kawéntar. Rumusna: sinyal kabentuk nalika Rata-rata Gerak 150-Dinten ngadeukeutan Rata-rata Gerak 471-Dinten dikalikeun ku 0.745. Nalika dua éta konvergen, dasar siklus Bitcoin sajarah biasana aya dina rentang 4 nepi ka 8 minggu.

Naha rasiona jalan. 150DMA nyekel lanté harga jangka sedeng. 471DMA dikali 0.745 nyekel patokan log-regression jangka panjang anu geus disaluyukeun pikeun jero ragrag has dina dasar siklus. Nalika dua éta konvergen, harga jangka sedeng geus ragrag cekap dibanding patokan jangka panjang nepi ka probabilitas struktural-bottom naék sacara signifikan.

Kakuratan sinyal dasar sajarah (nurutan implementasi SatoshiMacro): indikator ieu geus ngabentuk sinyal konvergensi anu beresih deukeut unggal dasar siklus BTC anu geus kacatet saprak 2014, kalayan harga low anu biasana dicitak 4 nepi ka 8 minggu sanggeus konvergensi kahiji. Kurang presisi tibatan Pi Cycle Top anu geus nyala dina sababaraha poé sabada siklus tops, tapi jandéla zona-bawah leuwih mangpaat pikeun nyieun timing éntri bertahap tinimbang zona-top pikeun timing kaluar (exit).

Pikeun warga Australia lapisan praktisna: sinyal konvergensi Pi Cycle Bottom TEU hartosna "meuli sagalana isukan". Jandéla 4-to-8-minggu nyaéta pikeun nentukeun ukuran dina tranche bertahap, lain éntri hiji-kali. Jam CA T-discount eligibility 12-bulan (CGT-discount-eligibility) dimimitian ti tanggal meuli, jadi ngasupkeun éntri saméméhna nalika konvergensi Pi Cycle Bottom ngajadikeun anjeun siap sangkan distribusi siklus salajengna ragrag SAHISUN di KATUKANG ambang 12-bulan éta. Urutan leuwih penting tibatan harga pangalusna tunggal.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-pi-cycle-bottom-indicator/

#SatoshiMacro #BitcoinCycleAnalysis #OnChain #Bitcoin

$BTC | Mayer Multiple reading right now: 1.18, down from 2.07 at the late-2025 cycle top.

Mayer = BTC price / 200-day moving average. Above 2.4 historically marks cycle euphoria zones - 2013-12 hit 3.4, 2017-12 hit 2.8, 2021-04 hit 2.7. Below 0.8 marks cycle accumulation - 2015-01 0.55, 2018-12 0.65, 2022-11 0.6.

Current 1.18 sits in the Neutral band. Six months ago we were tagging the euphoria threshold; six months from now, if the cycle template holds, Mayer is below 0.9 and the accumulation framework activates. On the desk we used to treat Mayer 0.8 as the "start sizing in" trigger, not the "buy everything" signal - the 2018 bear taught me Mayer can sit below 0.8 for 9 weeks before the actual capitulation print.

Honest limitation: Mayer Multiple by itself missed the 2021-11 echo top because price went sideways while the 200DMA caught up. That is why it is one of 48 signals in the SatoshiMacro Model, not the whole model.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/

#BitcoinCycleAnalysis #OnChain #SatoshiMacro