Oil surged during October 12–17 as diesel supplies remained under pressure
🛢️ Brent ended the week at USD 109.86 a barrel, up 4.9%, after touching USD 110 for the first time since May. WTI gained 10.4% to USD 101.41, supported by supply risks and declining US inventories.
🌍 Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Saudi energy infrastructure continued to lift the geopolitical risk premium. Attacks on Russian refineries also raised concerns about fuel availability, particularly diesel.
🏭 Diesel remained a key bottleneck beyond crude oil. According to the IEA, global gasoil exports averaged roughly 10% below year-earlier levels during the first nine months of 2026, as disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supplies put pressure on inventories.
🏦 The IEA agreed to accelerate the release of remaining stocks under its earlier commitment, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. Additional supplies are expected to ease pressure, although their impact depends on delivery speed and the restoration of shipping flows.
📉 US commercial crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week ended October 9. However, hurricane-related production disruptions contributed to the draw, limiting its value as evidence of stronger demand.
🔎 Next week’s focus will be on shipping through Hormuz, reserve deliveries and diesel availability. The rally highlights the market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions, while the effectiveness of additional supplies will take time to assess.
$NBIS – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 167.1
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 5.5 million USD in long liquidations below the current price, exceeding approximately 4.8 million USD in short liquidations above. The overall liquidity structure is relatively balanced with a mild downside tilt.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is heavily concentrated across 157–164. The strongest cluster sits around 159–162, with several bars near 0.19–0.28 million USD. The 162–164 area also contains notable peaks, while 156–158 holds additional meaningful liquidity. Losing 165–163 would shift attention toward 162–159 and then 157–156.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity increases noticeably from 171 and clusters across 172–177. The area near 173 contains a peak around 0.25 million USD, while 175–177 includes bars near 0.18–0.20 million USD. Further out, 178–185 holds additional liquidity layers, although the overall concentration is lower.
🧭 The broader setup carries a mild downside tilt because long-liquidation exposure below is larger. Losing 165–163 would increase the likelihood of a sweep toward 162–159, followed by 157–156. Conversely, breaking above 171–173 would expose 175–177 and then 178–181. The liquidity imbalance alone does not confirm price direction.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 2.20% wide. The uptrend has lasted 6 hours, with a maximum recorded price increase of 14.48%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 1.80% wide. The uptrend has lasted 1 hour 56 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 9.44%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
Agricultural markets diverged during October 12–17 as supply weighed on grains, while coffee and sugar found separate support.
🌾 Corn, soybeans and wheat remained under pressure from U.S. supplies and harvesting activity. At the October 16 close, December corn traded near USD 4.74 per bushel, November soybeans at USD 12.61 and December wheat around USD 6.60.
🚜 The USDA’s October supply and demand report raised projected U.S. corn production to 16.034 billion bushels, reinforcing expectations of ample supply. Drier weather supported harvesting and brought more crops to market, although earlier progress remained below the multiyear average.
🫘 Soybeans received some support from Chinese purchases, but buying was insufficient to outweigh seasonal supply pressure. Sustained export demand would provide a stronger foundation for a recovery than isolated orders.
☕ Coffee and sugar found support from supply concerns. Declining certified coffee inventories increased sensitivity to weather risks, while rainfall in Brazil threatened to disrupt sugarcane harvesting. This divergence highlights the importance of supply and demand conditions specific to each commodity.
🔎 U.S. harvest progress, export orders and Brazilian weather will be key factors next week. Continued arrivals of newly harvested crops could limit grain price recoveries, while weather disruptions or stronger buying could provide support.
$PENDLE – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 2.035
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 3.4–3.5 million USD in short liquidations above the current price, exceeding approximately 2.6 million USD in long liquidations below. The liquidity structure therefore carries an upside tilt, with around 1.3 times more cumulative liquidation exposure above the market.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated notably across 1.870–1.890 and 2.010–2.030. The nearest major cluster sits around 2.017–2.027, with peaks near 0.13–0.14 million USD. Further down, 1.870–1.880 contains several bars around 0.07–0.085 million USD. Losing 2.030–2.012 would shift attention toward 1.995–1.975 and then 1.890–1.870.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity increases noticeably from 2.135 and becomes heavily concentrated across 2.185–2.210. The largest peak sits near 2.187, reaching approximately 0.17 million USD, while 2.200–2.210 contains additional bars around 0.08–0.14 million USD. Further out, 2.240–2.260 forms another notable cluster with a peak near 0.14 million USD.
🧭 The broader setup carries a mild upside tilt because short-liquidation exposure above is larger. Breaking above 2.135–2.155 would expose 2.185–2.210, followed by 2.240–2.260. Losing 2.030–2.012 would instead increase the likelihood of a sweep toward 1.995–1.975 and then 1.890–1.870. The liquidity imbalance alone does not confirm price direction.
SC02 M15 - chase Long order has been triggered, no profit yet. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the recently broken resistance zone is 3.09% wide. The previous downtrend lasted 7 days 14 hours 30 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 47.45%. As price has broken above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to begin reversing upward.
SC02 H1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + meets positive simplification with a previously highly profitable Short order, the current resistance zone is approximately 4.26% wide. The downtrend has lasted 5 days 8 hours, with a maximum recorded price decline of 21.57%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
Global stocks diverge as AI financing concerns weigh on technology shares
📉 During the October 12–16 trading week, the Nasdaq fell about 4.5%, its worst week since June, while the S&P 500 lost nearly 2%. The Dow Jones gained roughly 0.7%, highlighting pressure on technology as some defensive sectors and energy stocks attracted interest.
🧠 Attention centered on whether massive AI infrastructure investments can generate sufficient returns. CoreWeave dropped about 25% over the week, while its bond yields exceeded 15%, reflecting concerns about borrowing costs and the timing of cash flows needed to service debt. Pressure spread to chipmakers and other AI-related companies.
🌍 Regional performance also diverged. European equities advanced over the week, supported by corporate earnings, while South Korea’s KOSPI lost around 14% despite rebounding on Friday. Its heavy semiconductor exposure left the market particularly vulnerable to the sector’s selloff.
🏦 US Treasury yields eased toward the end of the week as demand for safe havens increased, but this failed to deliver a sustained technology rebound. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US inflation and rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions complicated the interest-rate outlook.
🔎 The week showed a shift toward some defensive stocks alongside broader caution toward risk. Profitability, balance-sheet strength and returns on AI investment will remain key considerations as earnings season unfolds.
$DASH – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 48.3
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 6 million USD in short liquidations above the current price, significantly exceeding approximately 2.7 million USD in long liquidations below. The liquidity structure therefore carries a strong upside tilt, with around 2.2 times more cumulative liquidation exposure above the market.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated notably across 45.8–46.2 and 47.6–48.0. The strongest cluster sits near 47.9, with a peak around 0.30 million USD, while 45.8–46.2 contains bars around 0.07–0.12 million USD. Losing 48.0–47.7 would shift attention toward 47.1–46.8 and then 46.2–45.8.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity increases sharply from 50.5 and becomes heavily concentrated across 50.8–52.0. The strongest cluster sits around 51.1–51.8, with the peak near 51.5 reaching approximately 0.40 million USD and neighboring bars around 0.25–0.33 million USD. Further out, 52.6–52.9 and 54.1–54.7 hold additional notable liquidity clusters.
🧭 The broader setup carries a strong upside tilt because short-liquidation exposure above dominates. Breaking above 50.2–50.8 would expose 51.1–51.8, followed by 52.6–52.9. Losing 48.0–47.7 would instead increase the likelihood of a sweep toward 47.1–46.8 and then 46.2–45.8. The liquidity imbalance alone does not confirm price direction.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 1.79% wide. The uptrend has lasted 17 hours 10 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 13.95%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
SC02 M15 - pending Long order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 30.97% wide. The uptrend has lasted 2 days 30 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 525.40%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
Metals diverged during October 12–16 as gold recovered, silver lagged and copper rebounded ahead of LME Week
🟡 Gold recovered most of its midweek losses to trade around USD 4,165–4,170/oz, though it remained slightly lower for the week. A weaker dollar and easing US Treasury yields supported prices, while concerns over technology stocks helped sustain safe-haven demand.
⚪ Silver’s recovery was more limited, with prices around USD 57/oz and performance clearly trailing gold. The divergence suggests gold’s rebound has yet to spread broadly across precious metals, as silver remains sensitive to industrial demand prospects and market sentiment.
🏭 LME copper recovered to around USD 14,480/ton during Friday’s session after touching USD 14,256 on Thursday. A softer dollar and stabilizing equities supported buying, while cash prices above three-month contracts indicated relatively tight nearby supply.
🌎 However, regional scarcity does not necessarily imply a global shortage. Copper accumulation in the US ahead of potential tariffs has reshaped trade flows. If incentives to ship metal into the US weaken, availability elsewhere could improve.
⚖️ Metals recovered as pressure from the dollar and yields eased, but hot US inflation data and rising oil prices kept monetary tightening risks in focus. The upcoming LME Week will offer further insight into supply and demand, alongside developments in interest rates and geopolitics.
$JUP – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 0.297
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 2.9 million USD in short liquidations above the current price, significantly exceeding approximately 1 million USD in long liquidations below. The liquidity structure therefore carries a strong upside tilt, with nearly three times more cumulative liquidation exposure above the market.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated mainly across 0.284–0.291. The most notable cluster sits around 0.285–0.288, with several bars near 0.07–0.10 million USD. The 0.290–0.295 area also contains additional meaningful liquidity layers. Losing 0.295–0.293 would shift attention toward 0.290–0.285 and then 0.282–0.279.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity increases noticeably from 0.304–0.308, with a peak near 0.307 reaching approximately 0.13 million USD. A stronger cluster appears across 0.316–0.319, while 0.321–0.325 holds the largest concentration. The peak near 0.322 reaches roughly 0.20 million USD, with several neighboring bars around 0.13–0.19 million USD.
🧭 The broader setup carries a strong upside tilt because short-liquidation exposure above dominates. Breaking above 0.304–0.308 would expose 0.316–0.319, followed by 0.321–0.325. Losing 0.295–0.293 would instead increase the likelihood of a sweep toward 0.290–0.285. The liquidity imbalance alone does not confirm price direction.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 1.34% wide. The uptrend has lasted 1 hour 52 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 8.01%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 1.43% wide. The uptrend has lasted 8 hours 50 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 8.11%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
$USELESS – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 0.1597
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 2 million USD in long liquidations below the current price, exceeding approximately 1.4–1.5 million USD in short liquidations above. The liquidity structure therefore carries a downside tilt, although sizeable liquidation clusters remain on both sides.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated notably across 0.1475–0.1505 and 0.1555–0.1590. The nearest major cluster sits around 0.1570–0.1580, with a peak near 0.06 million USD. Further down, 0.1480–0.1505 also contains several bars around 0.045–0.06 million USD. Losing 0.1570–0.1555 would shift attention toward 0.1505–0.1480 and then 0.1450–0.1430.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity is relatively scattered from 0.1635 to 0.1750. A notable cluster appears near 0.1685, with a peak around 0.06 million USD. Liquidity becomes denser across 0.1765–0.1800, where several bars reach approximately 0.04–0.05 million USD, forming a major upper cluster.
🧭 The broader setup carries a mild downside tilt because long-liquidation exposure below is larger. Losing 0.1570–0.1555 would increase the likelihood of a sweep toward 0.1505–0.1480. Conversely, breaking above 0.1635–0.1685 would expose 0.1755–0.1800. The liquidity imbalance reflects liquidation risk rather than confirming price direction.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 1.37% wide. The uptrend has lasted 15 hours 15 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 8.94%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + meets positive simplification with a previously profitable Long order that delivered good returns, the current support zone is approximately 0.79% wide. The uptrend has lasted 2 hours 13 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 5.18%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
USD loses momentum during October 12–16 despite hot US inflation
💵 The dollar retreated after reaching an 18-month high, heading for its first weekly decline in more than a month. In Friday’s market update, DXY stood near 101.87, down around 0.35% from the previous week.
🏦 Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI initially lifted expectations for another Fed rate hike. However, comments suggesting some officials saw no urgency to tighten further helped stabilize Treasury yields and weakened support for the dollar. Markets priced in roughly an 83% chance of unchanged rates at the October 27–28 meeting.
📉 Notably, the dollar weakened even as AI stocks sold off and concerns spread to credit markets. Defensive demand supported bonds and the Swiss franc, while the greenback struggled to sustain its post-inflation gains.
🛢️ Elevated oil prices continue to pressure the inflation outlook and weigh on energy-importing economies. Expectations for an October pause therefore do not rule out another rate increase later this year.
🔎 US Treasury yields, oil prices and policy signals will remain key next week. The pullback suggests hot inflation alone may be insufficient to sustain dollar gains without a further rise in rate expectations. One weaker week, however, does not confirm a lasting downtrend.