DD-滴滴

前段时间国巨 2327 下去有抄底一些
今天继续更新 MLCC
MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）广泛用于储能、滤波与去耦，是电子设备中用量最大的基础被动元件之一。全球市场集中度较高，村田、三星电机、太阳诱电、国巨、TDK、京瓷等厂商占据主要份额，高端产品长期由日韩厂商主导。
过去 MLCC 需求主要跟随手机、PC 等消费电子周期波动。近两年，AI服务器与新能源汽车开始成为新增需求的重要来源。AI服务器功耗、GPU密度及电源复杂度持续提升，对高容、小型化、高可靠 MLCC 的需求明显增加；新能源汽车、ADAS 与域控制器普及，也持续拉升单车用量。
2026年以来，行业景气改善进一步显现。部分日韩厂商高端产线稼动率维持在90%以上，订单出货比（BB Ratio）处于高位，部分规格交期延长，高端产品报价开始上调。中低端市场仍有较充足的扩产能力，高容、车规及服务器级产品受制于材料、设备、工艺与良率，新增有效产能释放较慢。
美股相关标的
美股市场中，纯MLCC标的较少，目前主要通过被动元件厂商或日系ADR取得行业敞口。
Vishay Intertechnology（VSH）业务复盖陶瓷电容、钽电容、电阻、电感及分立器件，客户分布于工业、汽车、电源及电子设备领域，对被动元件景气具有较高敏感度。
Knowles（KN）更偏向高可靠特种电容及RF元件，终端集中于医疗、国防、工业及精密电子，产品附加值较高，与普通消费级MLCC的周期相关性相对较低。
若希望提高对MLCC行业本身的敞口，可以关注日本厂商ADR。Murata（MRAAY）是全球MLCC龙头；Taiyo Yuden（TYOYY）的业务敏感度较高；TDK（TTDKY）同样拥有重要被动元件业务，但整体产品结构更加多元。
由于KEMET、AVX等过去较具代表性的标的已经被收购，美股市场目前缺乏高度纯粹的MLCC上市公司。因此，研究行业景气时，日本及亚洲原厂的数据仍然更有参考价值。
为什么本轮景气可能持续更久
本轮MLCC景气改善主要来自需求结构变化。
AI服务器对MLCC的要求不仅体现在数量增加，还体现在容值、尺寸、耐压、可靠性及电气性能升级。随着GPU功耗上升、HBM增加及服务器供电架构复杂化，高端MLCC的单机价值量持续提高。
供给端的扩张速度相对有限。高端MLCC需要更高精度的陶瓷粉体、薄层化与积层工艺，同时受到设备、认证周期及良率限制。普通产能增加，并不等同于服务器级和车规级有效产能同步增加。
Goldman Sachs、Morgan Stanley、JPMorgan等机构的研究重点也集中于这一供需结构：AI服务器带动高端MLCC需求快速增长，而有效供给扩张存在明显滞后。市场因此开始上调对村田、太阳诱电等龙头的产能利用率、产品组合与盈利能力预期。
未来几个季度可以重点跟踪四项指标：
1. BB Ratio：订单增速能否持续高于出货增速。
2. 稼动率：高端产线是否长期维持90%以上。
3. ASP：涨价能否从渠道现货逐步传导至长期合约。
4. 产品结构：AI服务器及车规高端产品占比是否持续提高。
MLCC行业正在从消费电子主导的传统周期，逐步转向AI服务器、数据中心与汽车电子驱动的结构性增长。
当前最具弹性的环节集中在高容、高可靠及服务器级产品。高端产能扩张难度较高，一旦需求持续超过有效供给，厂商有机会同时获得出货增长、ASP提升与产品结构改善。
美股投资者可以通过VSH、KN取得被动元件行业敞口，也可以通过MRAAY、TYOYY、TTDKY等ADR参与亚洲龙头行情，但需考虑OTC流动性、汇率及海外市场估值差异。
后续判断行业景气强度，重点观察高端产能利用率、BB Ratio、合约价格以及AI服务器出货节奏。只要上述指标保持强势，高端MLCC的景气周期仍有继续延伸的基础

The latest rise in Chinese equities is not being driven by a single policy announcement or a temporary burst of speculative enthusiasm. It reflects the convergence of three powerful forces: an AI-driven memory-chip upcycle, the accelerating localisation of China’s semiconductor supply chain, and a broader reassessment of Chinese assets after years of valuation compression.
This does not mean that every Chinese stock has entered a new bull market. The rally remains highly selective, with capital concentrating in companies positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, semiconductor self-sufficiency and improving shareholder returns.
Major global investment banks have become increasingly constructive on Chinese assets, particularly in hard technology and large internet platforms. The central argument is that future returns could be supported by improving earnings rather than indiscriminate valuation expansion. After several years of underperformance, many Chinese companies still trade at substantial discounts to their global peers, leaving room for a structural re-rating if profitability continues to recover.
CXMT’s Listing: A Milestone for China’s Memory-Chip Ambitions
The most visible symbol of this reawakening arrived on July 27, 2026, when ChangXin Memory Technologies, better known as CXMT, began trading on Shanghai’s STAR Market under the ticker 688825.
CXMT sold approximately 6.69 billion shares at RMB 8.66 each, raising RMB 57.92 billion. Proceeds could increase to roughly RMB 66.61 billion should the over-allotment option be exercised in full. The transaction became Asia’s largest IPO of 2026 and surpassed Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s previous fundraising record on the STAR Market.
Its first day of trading was extraordinary even by the standards of China’s retail-driven IPO market. CXMT closed at approximately RMB 49.01, representing a gain of about 466% from its offer price, after climbing by more than 500% at its intraday peak.
Its market capitalisation briefly exceeded RMB 3.3 trillion, making it the most valuable company listed on a mainland Chinese exchange and temporarily overtaking Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
The scale of the rally was spectacular, but the strategic significance of the listing matters more than its first-day return.
DRAM is a foundational component of modern computing. It is required in smartphones and personal computers, but increasingly also in cloud infrastructure, AI servers, automobiles and other data-intensive systems. CXMT has become China’s largest DRAM producer and one of the world’s leading memory-chip manufacturers.
Its rise demonstrates that China is beginning to establish a meaningful domestic presence in a sector that has historically been dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron.
The company’s financial inflection has been equally dramatic. CXMT generated approximately RMB 50.8 billion in revenue during the first quarter of 2026, representing year-on-year growth of more than 700%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately RMB 24.8 billion.
The improvement reflects rising memory prices, stronger AI-related demand, expanded production and a more favourable product mix. After suffering significant cumulative losses between 2022 and 2024, the company returned to profitability in 2025, with its earnings accelerating sharply in 2026.
In this sense, CXMT is not merely another semiconductor listing. It represents the capital-market expression of China’s effort to develop a more self-sufficient technology ecosystem.
Memory chips have moved from being treated primarily as cyclical electronic components to being regarded as strategic infrastructure for artificial intelligence and national supply-chain security.
CXMT’s listing also illustrates how China’s capital markets are increasingly being used to finance strategically important industries. The speed and scale of the transaction demonstrate the policy priority being given to semiconductor manufacturing, advanced technology and what Chinese policymakers describe as “new productive forces.”
However, the first-day valuation should not be interpreted as a straightforward assessment of CXMT’s long-term intrinsic value.
The unusually large gain was amplified by a conservative offer price, limited immediately tradable supply and the STAR Market’s rule allowing newly listed companies to trade without daily price limits during their first five sessions.
The company’s strategic scarcity value attracted enormous demand, but the resulting share price also incorporated expectations that may take years to fulfil.
CXMT still faces formidable obstacles. The global memory industry remains deeply cyclical, and periods of shortages and rising prices have historically encouraged aggressive capacity expansion, eventually producing oversupply.
The company also remains behind global leaders in certain advanced manufacturing capabilities and faces restricted access to some Western semiconductor equipment. Geopolitical tensions, potential export restrictions and competition from established international manufacturers will remain central risks.
The industry’s current strength may also prove temporary. If global manufacturers expand production too aggressively, or if AI infrastructure spending begins to moderate, memory prices could eventually peak and reverse. A company that appears extraordinarily profitable at the top of the cycle can experience rapid margin compression when supply catches up with demand.
CXMT’s debut should therefore be understood as both a milestone and a stress test: a milestone for China’s semiconductor localisation strategy, but a stress test of whether extraordinary investor expectations can ultimately be supported by technological progress, operating margins and sustained market-share gains.
Hong Kong’s Rally: Technology Rotation Rather Than a Universal Bull Market
The renewed enthusiasm has not been confined to mainland China. Hong Kong equities have also experienced a powerful, though uneven, re-rating.
The Hang Seng Index gained nearly 28% in 2025, while the Hang Seng TECH Index advanced by more than 20%, making it one of Hong Kong’s strongest market years in recent memory. That recovery established a stronger foundation for the more selective technology rallies seen during 2026.
Mainland capital has played an increasingly important role. Southbound investors have continued to purchase Hong Kong-listed securities through Stock Connect, with technology, consumer and financial companies attracting considerable demand.
These flows reflect both a search for undervalued assets and the fact that many of China’s most important internet platforms are listed in Hong Kong rather than on mainland exchanges.
The intensity of the rotation became particularly visible in July. During one notable session, the Hang Seng TECH Index rose by nearly 5%, while Alibaba gained more than 12%. Other major technology platforms and AI-related companies also advanced as investors returned to businesses with improving cloud-computing prospects, potential AI monetisation and valuations that had remained depressed relative to their historical levels.
This rally should not be described as a simple, market-wide surge. It has more closely resembled a reallocation from crowded or highly valued AI hardware positions into comparatively inexpensive Chinese internet platforms, software providers and application-layer businesses.
The distinction is important.
Hardware manufacturers were the earliest and most direct beneficiaries of the AI capital-expenditure cycle. The market is now beginning to ask which companies can convert that infrastructure into commercial applications, recurring revenue and higher margins.
In China, this transition could favour cloud platforms, advertising ecosystems, enterprise software providers, autonomous systems and consumer-facing AI applications.
Hong Kong also offers structural characteristics that mainland markets cannot fully replicate. It provides international and mainland investors with access to major Chinese internet companies, insurers and globally oriented consumer businesses that are underrepresented in domestic benchmarks.
Many of these companies have also introduced larger share-repurchase programmes, higher dividends and more disciplined capital-allocation policies, improving their appeal after several years of regulatory and valuation pressure.
The recovery is therefore not based solely on AI enthusiasm. It also reflects a broader reassessment of Chinese corporate governance and shareholder returns.
For much of the previous decade, investors often criticised Chinese technology companies for prioritising aggressive expansion over profitability. Today, several of the largest platforms are generating stronger cash flow, controlling costs more carefully and returning more capital to shareholders.
This makes the current rally fundamentally different from a purely speculative technology boom.
At the same time, the market remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals. Hong Kong valuations are highly sensitive to global interest-rate expectations, the US dollar, geopolitical developments and changes in mainland investor flows.
The city’s growing pipeline of AI and semiconductor listings may deepen the market, but it may also create additional selling pressure when early investors and cornerstone shareholders become eligible to reduce their positions.
The recent gains therefore represent a valuation repair and a technology rotation—not evidence that fundamental risk has disappeared.
The Deeper Logic: China’s “New Productive Forces” Enter the Equity Market
Viewed together, CXMT’s historic debut and Hong Kong’s technology rally are part of the same broader transition. China’s industrial-policy emphasis on “new productive forces” is beginning to acquire a visible capital-market dimension.
The first pillar is the global imbalance between AI computing demand and the supply of critical components.
Artificial intelligence requires not only processors, but also memory, optical interconnects, data-centre equipment, power infrastructure and advanced packaging. As computing workloads become larger and more complex, these supporting components become increasingly valuable.
The semiconductor opportunity is therefore much broader than GPUs alone. The rise of AI creates demand across an entire industrial chain, from memory and networking equipment to cooling systems and electricity infrastructure.
Companies positioned within these bottlenecks may benefit even if they do not produce the most visible AI products.
The second pillar is localisation.
Export controls and geopolitical tensions have increased the strategic value of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, equipment suppliers and component producers. For investors, domestic substitution is no longer only a policy slogan.
It is becoming a source of addressable demand, government support, financing access and, in selected cases, genuine earnings growth.
China remains dependent on foreign technology in several important areas, but that dependency itself creates a powerful commercial incentive for domestic alternatives.
Whenever Chinese manufacturers are able to achieve acceptable performance and production scale, they may gain access to a protected and rapidly expanding domestic market.
The third pillar is capital reallocation.
Mainland investors are increasingly using Hong Kong to obtain exposure to technology, insurance and globally oriented companies, while international investors are reconsidering Chinese equities after years of underperformance and valuation compression.
Hong Kong’s active IPO market is simultaneously giving Chinese technology companies access to deeper and more internationally connected pools of capital.
This creates a reinforcing cycle. Strong listings attract investor attention, rising valuations make additional fundraising easier, and the resulting capital can be invested in research, manufacturing and international expansion.
The fourth pillar is valuation.
Chinese equities have spent several years trading at substantial discounts to US and other Asian markets. These discounts were not entirely irrational. They reflected concerns over regulation, property-sector weakness, domestic consumption, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding corporate governance.
However, valuation discounts can become opportunities when expectations are already extremely low.
The current rally suggests that investors are beginning to distinguish between structural problems affecting the broader economy and individual companies capable of delivering strong earnings despite those challenges.
Yet the sustainability of the rally will depend on earnings rather than national strategy alone.
The strongest version of the bullish case is that AI demand, industrial upgrading and improved corporate discipline will produce several years of superior profit growth. Under that scenario, Chinese equities can rise without returning to the extreme valuations seen during previous speculative cycles.
The weaker version is that investors capitalise years of expected growth immediately, while memory prices peak, overseas restrictions intensify and domestic competition compresses margins.
Policy support can provide financing, favourable regulation and strategic demand, but it cannot guarantee commercial success. Industries identified as national priorities may also attract excessive investment, creating duplication, price competition and eventual overcapacity.
This has happened before in sectors ranging from solar manufacturing to electric vehicles. Semiconductor localisation may produce enormous long-term value, but it could also create intense competition among companies pursuing similar markets with similar policy support.
For investors, the implication is not to buy “China” as a single trade. The opportunity is structural, but it is also highly selective.
The most credible beneficiaries are likely to be companies with measurable technological advantages, improving cash flow and defensible positions in memory, advanced packaging, optical communications, semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure.
At the application layer, the focus should remain on platforms capable of turning AI investment into revenue rather than companies valued primarily on announcements and narratives.
High-dividend companies may meanwhile provide a defensive counterweight to the volatility of technology exposure.
A Structural Opportunity, but Not a Risk-Free One
The comparison between CXMT and Hong Kong’s technology platforms also reveals an important difference between the two sides of the current rally.
CXMT represents scarcity, strategic ambition and the hardware foundation of the AI cycle. Its valuation reflects expectations that China will continue to close the technological gap with global memory leaders.
Hong Kong’s internet platforms represent a different form of opportunity. Many already possess established user bases, substantial revenue and strong cash flow. Their re-rating depends less on technological independence and more on whether they can convert AI into practical products, higher advertising efficiency, cloud demand and new sources of monetisation.
The hardware side may offer faster earnings growth during the current cycle, but it is also more vulnerable to changes in supply and pricing.
The platform side may grow more slowly, but successful companies could produce more durable cash flow if AI becomes embedded in everyday consumer and enterprise services.
A balanced interpretation of the rally must therefore recognise both opportunity and asymmetry.
The strongest companies may be entering a multi-year growth phase, while weaker businesses may simply be benefiting from the temporary expansion of risk appetite.
The challenge is separating companies whose earnings are genuinely changing from those whose narratives are changing faster than their fundamentals.
Conclusion: A Re-Rating That Must Still Be Earned
China’s equity resurgence is more substantial than a short-lived policy rally, but less universal than headline index movements might suggest.
CXMT’s ascent captures the ambition of China’s semiconductor programme and the extraordinary scarcity premium investors are assigning to strategically important technology assets.
Hong Kong’s rally reflects the next stage of the same story: capital rotating toward platforms, applications and companies whose valuations have yet to reflect the possibility of renewed earnings growth.
The central question is no longer whether China can generate exciting technology narratives. It is whether those narratives can be translated into sustainable margins, cash flow and shareholder returns.
Should earnings continue to improve, the combination of technological upgrading, policy support and discounted valuations could support a multi-year re-rating of selected Chinese assets.
Should earnings disappoint, the same market that celebrated CXMT’s historic debut may prove equally unforgiving.
China’s new equity cycle has begun with symbolism and extraordinary momentum. Its durability will ultimately be determined by execution.