What do I expect in the short term on $BTC ?
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Last week, both the stock market and the crypto market rallied nicely on the back of good macro news.

BTC pushed through the $64,500 resistance but failed to break through it.

In my previous articles, I wrote that it could get support from the downtrend again, and this is exactly what happened and it managed to rise from $63,300 to $64,000 again.

Where I am now is really critical because we are slowly approaching the point where $BTC traders need to make a decision.

I mentioned that with the arrival of May there will be a drop in volume and unfortunately the volume of the current rallies is not as high as in the past.

Therefore, if hard sellers come into the market, buyers may not be able to absorb them, which could cause the price to crash hard.

I certainly don't expect these sharp declines in the first half of May, but I can say that many crypto traders and investors are in for a tough time as the volume drops towards the end of May.

The summer season will be challenging for many traders because traders will be constantly competing with each other as volume drops.

If you are an investor, I think there is nothing to worry about and it makes sense to keep buying and growing your bag.

However, if you are not an experienced trader, there is a good chance that you will be out of the game this summer.

If you can patiently make it through the summer without succumbing to greed, I expect worldwide liquidity to shift towards crypto in the fall and a sharp rally to follow.

Right now, the $64,500 resistance is critical, and if Bitcoin crosses it, we could see a move to $67,000.

Also, our support points are at $59,000 on the daily chart.

It's decision time for Bitcoin, so what will you do, long or short?

The Coins I'm Following on Binance
--------------------------

$TON

TON coin is the main coin of Tonchain owned by Telegram. Similar to ETH or SOL, you need TON to use dApps on its network. The TON project continuously strengthens its project by collaborating with different projects and aims to reach more people.

$REZ
If we say that Renzo is one of the most talked-about Binance Launchpool projects in recent days, we wouldn't be wrong! Renzo Project allows you to re-stake your ETH and rewards you with yield and points in return. If you've re-staked ETH here, you probably received the REZ airdrop. Re-staking projects are indeed important within the Ethereum ecosystem, and Renzo is definitely one of those significant projects.

$ETH

There's hardly anyone among us who doesn't know about the Ethereum project, but I'd still like to briefly touch upon it. Ethereum is essentially a universal computer. Just like a regular computer, it hosts various applications like Uniswap, Curve Finance, and more. Using these financial applications, you can do much more on Ethereum than you can in a bank. ETH coin is the main coin of this Ethereum project, and you need ETH to transact on Ethereum. This is what makes ETH valuable—the necessity! Additionally, by staking your ETH, you can earn yield and contribute to the security of the Ethereum network.

SOL

Solana, akin to Ethereum, is a Layer1 project with built-in applications. Its standout features are speed and low fees compared to Ethereum, leading to its popularity. The surge in meme coin activity has notably boosted activity on the Solana network, elevating SOL's value. Like ETH, SOL is the primary coin for transactions on the Solana network, making it essential for users.

$BTC

I'd be remiss not to mention Bitcoin among the projects I'm tracking! Bitcoin is a borderless blockchain enabling fast, low-fee money transfers with its main coin, BTC. Its supply is capped at 21 million, making it a sought-after investment, with even countries and large companies getting involved.

#CryptoWatchMay2024

How did I evaluate the rapid rise I expected?
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For 2 days, as I mentioned in my articles, I was expecting a short-term bullish period and that's why I had an ETH long position.

With this rapid rise, I closed my $ETH long position with a profit and now I have opened new positions. (I will be indicating my positions at the end of my article.)

Thanks to this short-term rise, it is a relief that I will not be carrying a long position in May.

This uptrend may continue for a while, but I expect a continued downtrend in Q2 and the summer season.

At the moment, the macro data looks very favorable for the crypto market to rise, but it will take some time for the liquidity in this macro market to shift to crypto.

I predict that the right time for this liquidity shift will be in the fall and I will be holding my short positions until then. (Position spolier alert!)

If there are other events in the summer, I can update my portfolio accordingly, but for now, this is the macro picture.
I'm tracking BTC as below and I'm constantly adding shorts at $62,000.

I don't think the BTC price will cross $64,000 anytime soon, and even if it does, I think it will fall below it quickly.

I think Bitcoin needs a rest in Q2, after some momentum in Q3 I think the real rally will happen in Q4 or Q1 2025.

ETH has a similar scenario.

I have written many times that I don't expect the ETH ETF to be approved in Q2 and I want to mention it again.

Therefore, I will prepare myself for this expectation by continuously adding shorts in the $3,000-$3,300 range.

I think Ethereum will ATH this year or next year, but I continue to expect a short-term bearish Q2 and I am positioning accordingly.
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My Positions
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1) ETH - Short: I have mentioned the reason many times and I think we are in a nice short area right now. If the price goes up, I will increase my position.

2) $BTC - Short: I expect a general crypto decline in Q2.

Do I still expect a short-term increase?
----------------------------------
Bitcoin's daily chart seems to have signaled a short-term turnaround.

Buyers came out stronger yesterday, pulling the price higher from below and closing with a green candle.

While I continue to expect +$60,000 in the short term, I would like to point out that Bitcoin's funding ratio is negative on the futures markets.

This means that the price increase is not due to excessive long positions but spot buying.

Also, many people started to open short positions in anticipation of a price drop.

To be honest, I also think the price will fall in the medium term and I'm waiting for the right time to open short positions, but I think they are acting a little early right now.

It would make sense to start shorting Bitcoin at any price above $60,000.

However, at this point, it is useful to keep the position range long, you can create a safer position by making piecemeal short positions.

On the Ethereum side, I recently wrote that ETHBTC was at a resistance point and unfortunately it failed to break this resistance and has been going down for 2 days.

I still expect that the ETF will not be approved in May and many big investors and traders agree with me.

Therefore, I would like to find a suitable position soon and close my ETH long position to take a short position and profit from the ETF news.

However, the ETF confirmation news in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 will kick off the ETH season.

If ETH and BTC manage to close today with a nice rise, I think we can spend the weekend more comfortably.

I think investors and traders will make more precise decisions now that the expectation of an interest rate decision has been lifted.

At the moment, the $3,100 level on the $ETH side and the $60,000-$61,000 level on the $BTC side are very important.

I will continue to trade around these levels, I believe that if some momentum comes, long positions can be profitable in the short term.

Is it time to move back to the Long positions?
----------------------------------
With yesterday's interest rate decision, we saw a nice but short-lived rally on #BTC and #ETH .
As of today, the bearish wave of the past days seems to have lost some momentum. I believe that those who are in short positions should take profits.

I expect a short-term rise as a reaction to the last 4-day decline. Also, since the uncertainty in the interest rate decision has disappeared, I think the market can move more comfortably at the moment.

Nevertheless, this expected rally will definitely not be long term. My expectation from this rise will be to close my long positions and prepare myself for new short positions.

ETH is holding well at the current support zone and if it holds here (which it looks like it will), we could see a rally back to the $3,100 level. If it rallies to this point, I will start taking short positions.

I still think the ETF decision in May will be negative and that's why I continue to believe that the ETH will fall sharply again. I expect this decline to continue in Q2 and a new ATH to come in Q4 and Q1 2025.

If you are not a trader and you are an investor, you can look to increase your holdings by continuously buying spot, but if you are a trader, here is my 12-month plan:
1-3 Weeks: Long position until ETH and BTC price rises again
1-3 Months: Short position until the price of ETH and BTC drops
3 Months and Beyond: ETH long position (buy-sell) until the end of Q1 2025

There has been massive outflows from BTC ETFs and ETF buyers have all closed their positions at a loss. This shows that traditional traders have yet to adjust to the crypto market.

What awaits $BTC and $ETH in the coming days?
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$BTC
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With the announcement of the interest rate decision, the price got a nice positive reaction, but they couldn't follow it up and the price went back to the $57,000 level.

To be frank, I predict that the decline will continue unless it closes above $59,000.

At the moment, the daily chart is really not looking good at all and this gives us the $53,000 signals very clearly.

If we don't see +$59,000 levels again today, I think the decline will deepen.

However, I think that these are good points for small long positions. If there is a bounce with partial additions and DCA, you can close these longs with profits and open new short positions.
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$ETH
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Ethereum is definitely more robust than Bitcoin. ETHBTC is up +3% today, which is one of the highest daily gains I've seen in recent times.

Also, the ETH price hasn't even hit the bottom that came with the war news yet. This means that ETH's liquidity is higher now than it used to be and people are starting to invest in ETH
rather than Bitcoin.

With the Halving and ETF hype over Bitcoin over, it's only natural that people would turn to ETH. I expect this trend to increase more in the fall and the real increase in ETHBTC will be then.

At the moment, Bitcoin is more of an investment vehicle than a technology and has very high liquidity and volume. Ethereum, on the other hand, is still used for its technology and is not a full-fledged investment asset. If the ETH ETF is approved, it means that ETH can also be considered as an investment instrument on the US side.

I prefer to open a long position on ETH rather than Bitcoin, and I plan to DCA as it falls to increase my position.

My buy levels on Ethereum would be $2,650-$2,430-$2,200 respectively. I will strengthen my positions by buying in threes at these points. Remember, this does not mean that the price will fall this far.

ETHBTC will hit a resistance point shortly, so it's worth being careful.

What awaits us after the sharp drop in #BTC‬ and how did I position myself?
---------------------------------
With the breakdown of the $60,000 support, the decline deepened in the morning hours today and fell sharply to $56,000.

The $56,600 level has worked as a great support at the moment, but it doesn't mean that the fall is over yet.

The #FOMC rate decision will be announced today and how the market reacts to it is really important. If the rate decision is higher than the markets expect, it means that the decline will be even steeper.

If there is a daily close below $56,600, we could see a decline down to $53,000 because there is no support between the two levels.

The price is currently 3% below the lower level of the Bollinger Bands according to the daily chart. Historically, when the price is below the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, we have seen a rebound immediately afterwards. So, while I don't think we will see new highs again, I think we may see a short-term rise.

I think that I will see +$60,000 levels again in a short period of time and that is why I am closing my short positions and adding to my long positions. However, these long positions will definitely be short term and will be a preparation for new short positions.

As I said before, I expect volume to decline and the price to move more sideways in May and throughout Q2. A move in the $56,000-$60,000 range will frustrate and put most traders out of the game. At this point, the important thing is not to be out of the game and to maintain your positions within the framework of your strategy.

I opened a $ETH long position at $2,860 this morning and I think I will close this position at +$3,000. If there is negative news before this pricing, I will accept the situation and make a stop loss.

Remember, no one can see the future, only predict it. The positions taken depend on one's own risk appetite and financial situation. Always build your own plan!

What happened to $BTC last night and today?
---------------------------
The approved Hong Kong ETF started trading last night and pushed the price up to $64,000.

However, there was much lower volume than expected and it failed to break through the $64,000 resistance and thus fell back to $62,000.

A couple of hours ago, the Hong Kong ETF ended its trading hours, but due to the low volume, people didn't find what they expected and the price is currently around $61,600.

If it can't push itself back above $62,000 during the day, we're likely to see a decline to around $60,000.

I think we'll get a nice reaction at $60,000 because on the daily chart, the lower point of the bollinger band crosses exactly there and there's also an old support there.

With the arrival of May, I said that I was expecting a decline in Q2 and that expectation is still there.

But instead of getting upset about it, you can make good profits by continuously buying and selling. The days will probably be less active as I expect low volume in Q2, but as long as you trade patiently and stick to your strategy, you will make a nice accumulation.

With the arrival of the fall, I continue to expect good activity and a sharp upward movement, especially on $ETH .

I currently have an $ETH long position to take a short profit from today's drop, but I want to close it as soon as possible and open a short position again.

Don't forget to share your expectations and comments with me below, I wish you all the best!

I explain in more detail the strategy I am using in my $4,000 to $400,000 challenge
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There were many new questions in yesterday's article. So I want to explain my strategy in more detail.

First of all, please look at the image I shared below, there are "Open orders" that you will see dashed in that image. The red ones are "short" orders and the green ones are "long" orders.
I think I have $10,000 in total and right now the price of $ETH is at $3,165.

If the price goes up and touches $3,175, my first order will be executed and I will start shorting ETH at that price.

But what happens if the price goes even higher? As I explained in yesterday's article, since I didn't go all-in, I still have money and since I'm shorting piecemeal, I will continue to short and DCA even if the price goes up.

On normal days, $ETH and $BTC are constantly moving in certain ranges, if you can identify these ranges by looking at past days, you can enter buy and sell orders in this way.

What happens if the price starts to fall? In this case, I'$$ll start long ETH since I have a buy order at $3,150. If it falls further, I'll still have my buy orders below and I'll buy more.

This way, when the price goes up again, I can close my position and make a profit.

For example, before I went to bed yesterday, I entered short orders at $3,175 - $3,200 - $3,225 and I successfully shorted them all last night. When I woke up in the morning, the price was around $3,150 and I closed this position and made a profit without doing anything (see Exhibit 2).

This strategy will work better on high-moving days.

Remember, with this strategy you don't have to predict whether the price will go up or down, you just need to place your orders correctly.

Also, you should always know how to manage your risk. If you are trading leveraged, it is in your best interest to use stop-losses.

If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask!

Also, I will show you the development of the challenge in the 3rd image, we are still at the beginning but I will show you the power of growth!

What is my trading strategy and how can you trade with it?
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Let's say the current price of $BTC is $63,000 and you think the price will move between $63,000 and $65,000 for a few days.

Let your principal be $10,000. If you buy $10,000 directly at the $63,000 price, you'll only be able to look at the price if it goes down.

Rather than buying with all your money, you can enter buy orders by dividing your money by 10 in the area where BTC over 1%.

For example, instead of buying $10,000 directly at $63,000, you could buy $1,000 at $63,000, $1,000 at $62,900, $1,000 at $62,800. In this way, if the price goes down, you can make a DCA and move your entry point to a better place.

You can think of this example in reverse. The price is currently at $65,000 and you want to open a short position. Instead of opening a short position of $10,000, it would be better for you to enter sell orders piecemeal.

This trading strategy requires a really strong psychology because sometimes you can miss opportunities, but it is definitely the safest trading strategy you can do.

Today was an extremely active market and you can see how much I traded in the image below. Not going all-in on a position always gives you an advantage and space in the game. If you take action in this way, you won't be upset if the price goes up or down, you can profit either way.

I am using this strategy to challenge from $4,000 to $400,000. I will be sharing my current chart from time to time.

I traded $ETH & $BTC a lot. I am sharing my previous positions below.

What should we expect in the new week on $BTC and $ETH ?
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$BTC
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As I said in yesterday's texts, Bitcoin, which could not hold at $64,000, fell sharply overnight and is currently trying to hold at $62,000.

If we don't see a rise to around $64,000 again in a short time, it seems quite possible that we will see a drop to $59,000 again.

The most dangerous situation would be a break of this $59,000 level, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon.

I definitely do not expect the price to make a new ATH again in June-July-August. I think the price will move in the $59,000-$64,000 band in these 3 months and I make my trading plans accordingly.

In the short term, BTC should definitely not lose the $62,300 level if it does not want to fall to $59,000.

Also, it's important to remember that EMAs act like a magnet and the price constantly fluctuates around it. A support from the 200-day EMA towards the end of the summer could take the price upwards very quickly. At the moment, this EMA price is hovering around $52,000, but I would say that it will go up in time.

Also, if we look at the daily chart, it's hard not to see a really unpleasant series of red candles. These 4 red candles, which are getting harder and harder, could be a harbinger of a sharp decline. However, I would expect a rebound after this sharp decline. So I will enter long orders around $59,000.
----------------------$
$ETH
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I continue to hold my short position on the ETH side as I shared below. The reason why I have not closed this position yet is because I am waiting for the news of the rejection of the ETH ETF.

At the moment, people are taking positions based on their expectations and my expectation for Ethereum is that the ETF will be rejected in May.

In the long run, I think the ETH ETF will definitely be approved, but as Justin Sun shared, it's still early days.

On the ETH side, I think we will see below $3,000 in May and that is my plan.

I would like to share and inform you about a few fraud methods.

1) Scam Tokens: It is possible to create multiple tokens with the same name. Therefore, it is very useful to check the contract address of the token you are going to buy. Otherwise, you may buy a fake token and never sell it again. A coin you buy as $ETH may turn out to be fake.

2) Fake Social Media Links: This method is unfortunately quite common and appears quite frequently on X. " Click to earn $BTC ! ", this link is probably a fake/scam link and can install malware on your device. Also, always verify the username of the person sharing the post! DefilLama's Google plugin helps to flag these fake accounts in red.

3) Fake Emails: Fake Emails are also a very common method and are called "phishing". The way to avoid this method is quite simple, look at the "to" address and make sure it is legitimate. Always check the sender, regardless of the content of the email.

4) Ponzi Schemes: Ponzi schemes are unfortunately very difficult to detect. Although they used to be easier to detect in the past, today they are very difficult to detect because they have more complex structures. Ponzi schemes are the projects that are doomed to collapse unless they get more users from outside.

5) Fake Apps: Unfortunately, Google App's app moderation mechanism does not work flawlessly, so sometimes they can present fake apps as if they were real. For example, Uniswap now has an official app, but there used to be fake apps on the market. That's why it's important to always use links from official places.

6) Fake Group Moderators: This is a very common method in Telegram and Discord. In this method, the scammer impersonates the admin and moderators with a similar username and pretends to help and sends a scam link to the user. Remember, no moderator will send you a non-project link or send you the first message!

I have shared some examples in the images below. Stay Safe!
#ScamRiskWarning

A new week is coming and what awaits us on the $BTC side?
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As you know, this week we will be watching the closing of the month together.

This time, the monthly close is very important because if it closes below $64,000, it could be a bad May for $BTC .

In the table below, you can see the May performance for the past years.

As you can see, for the last 2 years, Bitcoin has unfortunately been consistently falling in May.

This is not to say that it will be the same this year, but it is worth being cautious and watching the close of the month.
If the month closes below $64,000, the decline could deepen and I may start shorting.

Our first support point for Bitcoin is between $62,300-$62,500.
If the price falls back to this point, I may reopen a "short-term" long position.

I would do this not to carry it for the long term, but to use the bounce effect and take quick profits.

On the other hand, the first resistance point is between $64.100-$65.200.

I consider these points as very suitable ranges to open shorts between these points.

As I said in my previous articles, the $64,000 level is really, really important.

I don't think we will see the +$70,000s again until this level is seriously broken.

Also, the hype created by Halving and EFT has started to fade on Bitcoin and the trend seems to be shifting a bit towards Ethereum.

If you take a look at the 3rd image I shared below, you will notice that there is also a decline in "Bitcoin" searches on Google. This supports the "loss of hype" I mentioned.

The recapture of this hype and Bitcoin becoming a trend could happen in the fall with the approval of the Ethereum ETF.

As I said before, I don't expect the ETH ETF to be approved this May.

Keep in mind that I could be wrong, but I think we are in for a very short Bearish season (2-3 months).

Why did I short $ETH last night?
-----------------------------------------
As you know, ETH was up about 9% yesterday in a big way.

As you can see in the chart below, it was able to rise all the way to the very end of the red box with great support from the green box.

However, it failed to cross the $3,300 mark that we talked about last week.

Also, since today is the weekend, the volume of this rapid rise was unfortunately low compared to other days.

Therefore, I opened and continue to hold a short position at $3,248 as I consider this rise to be "fake".

If it continues to rise unannounced in this way, I can continue to grow this position very comfortably.

As you know, my expectation was that the ETH ETF would not be accepted this May.

I maintain this expectation and continue to increase my positions accordingly.

Due to the expectation of "Sell in May and go away, do not return until St. Leger's Day.", I want to carry as many short
positions as possible in May and maximize my profits.

With the downtrend in May, I think we will enter a horizontal trend in the summer and the real bull will start with the end of
the summer.

Also, if you look carefully at the chart I shared and followed below, you can see that ETH still hasn't broken the downtrend.

I closed my $BTC Short position at 62,900 and currently have no open positions on the BTC side.

I will wait for $64,000 (short) or $62,000 (long) to take a position again.

I don't plan to take any position between these two prices because the price can move extremely erratically.

When adding positions, I always make sure to buy in chunks. Instead of buying $10,000 at once, I buy 10 times for $1,000 each in chunks so that I can continually add as the price goes up or down.

I am currently tracking $BTC as in the chart below and as I said above, I will continue to look for long/short positions at support and resistance.
-----------------------
On the $ETH side, something interesting happened today.

Although there was no news and it was the weekend, the price went up excessively, causing ETH/BTC to rise too much.

I opened a short position in $ETH because of this meaningless
spike and my entry price is $3,228.

If the price continues to rise and the Bitcoin price does not increase, I will add to this short position.

As I said before, with May coming, I expect a low pricing action with low volume.

Therefore, I will try my best not to carry long positions and increase my short positions as much as I can.

I will probably continue to carry the ETH short position up to around $3,100.

Although it is the weekend, it is quite active, let's see what we will see on Sunday.

$BTC failed to cross the $64,000 level again today, but did not fall below it.

At the moment, it feels like Bitcoin pricing needs some news, and until that news, good or bad, comes, we could be hovering between $63,000 and $64,000 for a while.

If it's bad news, it wouldn't be surprising to see the price fall back to around $60,000.

On the other hand, if it's good news, it could easily take the
price to $67,000.

When interpreting price movements, we should never forget to interpret volumes.

There has been a steady decline in volume since March and according to historical data, it is quite possible that this decline will continue in May.

Even if there are small sales with low volume, the price may show an excessive amount of volatility.

It may make sense to scalp between $63,500 and $64,000 as the price fluctuates at these levels.

However, make sure to set a stop loss according to your long-term plans.
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$ETH failed to rebound from the $3,300 resistance.

However, on the bright side, it doesn't seem to want to see below $3,100 levels again.

Many news outlets are speculating that the ETH ETF will be rejected in May and there are some who think that the price has already reflected this.

However, if the ETF is rejected, this could cause a serious drop in the price.

If such a sharp drop comes, I would reduce my short positions and start adding long positions.

But I would wait for the Summer to end for that.

Even if the ETF is rejected during this period, I believe that it will trigger a real bull in the fall season and cause a very hard pump.

At the moment I continue to carry my short positions.
------------------------------
Remember, it is impossible to know the future, but you can plan for future events.

Let's take a look at what happened yesterday on the $BTC side.

Yesterday, there was a steady stream of bad news from $ETH and $BTC .

First of all, the US GDP data came in well below expectations, while the expectation was 2.5%, the announced value was 1.6%.

This devastated all markets and the Bitcoin price fell sharply to around $63,000.

Since the $63,000 levels are quite cheap in the current sideways market, Bitcoin, which found support there, quickly managed to throw itself back to the $64,000 levels and is currently hovering around the $64,300 level.

As I wrote in the previous days, the $64,000 level plays a very critical role, and if a journey to the $67,000 level is needed again, the first helper is definitely the $64,000 level.

A permanent close above the $64,000 level could take us back to the $67,000 level.

However, we have 4 days left due to the "Sell in May" effect.

I expect a sharp "Volume" decline in May.

If there is a sharp volume decline in this way, we may see the price move sharply up or down and get rid of this horizontal movement.

I will be sharing my expectations for the future again today in the evening.

As I said, the $64,000 level is EXTREMELY critical.

There are two very critical points for Bitcoin right now:
1) $64,000 level
2) $67,000 level

If the $64,000 level is literally broken, a journey to $60,000 could begin.

At the moment, the $BTC price continues to hold around $64,000 but people are hesitant to open long positions because it has fallen so sharply.

The volume was not high on the way to $67,000, nor was the volume on the way down.

This shows that the number of buyers and sellers in the market has dwindled considerably.

With May coming, it is possible that we will see this volume decline in a more serious way because there is always an expected volume decline that starts in May and continues through the rest of the summer months.

Also, if there is a serious close above $64,000, we could see a revisit to $67,000.

At the moment, I am still holding my short position open and I am betting on it reaching the $60,000 level.

$BTC failed to break the $67,000 level.

It is currently trying to hold at $64,000.

If the bulls fail to hold the $64,000 level, we may see a pullback to the $60,000s.

If you want to try long, it is quite risky at the moment, if it manages to close above the $64,000 level, you can open a long position, but I am not looking for a long until the $60,000 level at the moment.

For about 2 days now, I have written at length about $BTC 's inability to break $67,000 and as of today, Bitcoin has fallen back to $64,000.

I am currently holding my short position and continue to closely monitor Bitcoin's price movements.

If the decline becomes more severe, we can expect the price to fall back to around $60,000.

With the arrival of May, I can expect volumes to drop further and prices to retreat further.

At the moment, volume likes to accumulate around $67,000 but has yet to break these levels again as of now. For this reason, I maintain my bearish stance and keep my short position for the short term.

I plan to look for a long position again, initially on a reaction from $60,000.