EllySon85

ETH/USDT 4H chart, the structure is still slightly bullish, but ETH is sitting at an important resistance zone.
📊 What the chart is showing
Current price: ~$2,505
Resistance
$2,528 — 4H Bollinger upper band / immediate resistance
$2,566 — recent swing high and major breakout level
Above $2,566 → $2,600–$2,650 becomes the next potential area
Support
$2,485 — Bollinger middle band + MA25
$2,477 — SAR support
$2,442 — lower Bollinger Band
$2,395 — Supertrend support
The broader market is also currently treating roughly $2,500–$2,550 as a key ETH battle zone.
🟢 Bullish scenario — my primary scenario
The interesting part is that ETH is holding above the MA25 ($2,485) while the MA7 is around $2,504.
If the 4H candles continue holding $2,485–$2,500, I would watch for:
$2,505 → $2,528 → $2,550 → $2,566
A convincing 4H close above $2,566 with increasing volume would be the strongest confirmation that the consolidation is resolving upward. Current external technical analysis also identifies ~$2,550–$2,567 as the key breakout region.
🔴 Bearish scenario
There is also a clear warning:
MACD is still slightly negative (-4.39), and ETH has recently struggled to push through the upper Bollinger Band.
If ETH gets rejected around $2,528–$2,566 and loses $2,485, I would expect a move toward:
$2,477 → $2,442
A sustained 4H break below $2,442 would weaken the bullish structure considerably and could expose the $2,395 area.
🔎 One thing I particularly like on your chart
The Stoch RSI is turning upward from relatively low levels:
Stoch RSI: 31.81
MA Stoch RSI: 28.40
That suggests short-term momentum may be trying to turn upward again. However, MACD hasn’t fully confirmed it yet.
So I would characterize the setup as:
🟢 Bullish structure + 🟡 short-term consolidation + 🔴 strong resistance overhead.
🎯 My probable path
Most likely:
$2,500–$2,530 consolidation → attempt toward $2,550–$2,566.
If $2,566 breaks convincingly, the next upside expansion could target approximately $2,600–$2,650.
If $2,485 fails, I’d expect the market to test $2,477/$2,442 before another serious attempt higher.
One important point: ETH’s daily momentum is already quite stretched/overbought, so a pullback or sideways consolidation wouldn’t necessarily mean the larger bullish trend has ended

ETH has actually been mildly inflationary since the Dencun upgrade, not deflationary.
Here’s the current picture:
• Base issuance: ~2,800 ETH/day is created via PoS staking rewards.
• Burn rate: Since Dencun moved L2 data to cheap “blob” space, mainnet burn dropped sharply. Mainnet gas fees have been near historic lows (~0.1 Gwei), meaning minimal burn per transaction
• Net effect: Net supply growth has been running roughly 0.23% to 0.85% annually in recent 2026 measurements i.e., mild inflation, not deflation. Ethereum’s supply has actually grown by roughly 950,000 ETH since the Merge
When it does flip deflationary: only in short bursts of unusually high mainnet activity — big DeFi surges, NFT mints, or fee spikes — where burn temporarily outpaces issuance for a day or a stretch of days. That’s not the steady-state condition anymore.
So the “ultrasound money” (permanently deflationary) narrative from 2021–2023 doesn’t hold at current activity levels — it’s more accurate to call ETH a low-inflation asset than a strictly deflationary one right now It could flip back if mainnet usage (not L2 usage) picks up meaningfully, since L2 activity barely touches mainnet burn anymore.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​