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“Only a fool trips on what’s behind them.” — Iceberg Slim ◢ Founder, CEO, Asymmetric Financial & Asymmetric Information
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Fiscal deficits decoupled from unemployment in 2016; pro-cyclical spending now keeps inflation structurally above target
Interesting take from Simon White at Bloomberg Macro. He puts a precise date on when the fiscal regime broke: 2016, when budget deficits began meaningfully diverging from unemployment rates across the US, EU, UK and Japan.
Before that, governments ran deficits when economies were weak and pulled back when they recovered. That relationship collapsed, and it hasn't come back.
The chart shows fiscal deficit percentile minus unemployment percentile for a mean of the four major Western blocs across expanding periods.
For the 40 years before 2016, that spread oscillated around zero. Since then it has stayed persistently elevated, meaning governments kept spending even as labor markets tightened.
The pandemic turbocharged it further.
Fiscal deficits decoupled from unemployment in 2016; pro-cyclical spending now keeps inflation structurally above target
Interesting take from Simon White at Bloomberg Macro. He puts a precise date on when the fiscal regime broke: 2016, when budget deficits began meaningfully diverging from unemployment rates across the US, EU, UK and Japan.
Before that, governments ran deficits when economies were weak and pulled back when they recovered. That relationship collapsed, and it hasn't come back.
The chart shows fiscal deficit percentile minus unemployment percentile for a mean of the four major Western blocs across expanding periods.
For the 40 years before 2016, that spread oscillated around zero. Since then it has stayed persistently elevated, meaning governments kept spending even as labor markets tightened.
The pandemic turbocharged it further.
Interesting take from Simon White at Bloomberg Macro. He puts a precise date on when the fiscal regime broke: 2016, when budget deficits began meaningfully diverging from unemployment rates across the US, EU, UK and Japan.
Before that, governments ran deficits when economies were weak and pulled back when they recovered. That relationship collapsed, and it hasn't come back.
The chart shows fiscal deficit percentile minus unemployment percentile for a mean of the four major Western blocs across expanding periods.
For the 40 years before 2016, that spread oscillated around zero. Since then it has stayed persistently elevated, meaning governments kept spending even as labor markets tightened.
The pandemic turbocharged it further.
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5% isn't 7% - Stocks are fine until they aren’t
Historically, equities have actually handled the 5–6% yield bucket reasonably well.
In months when the 10-year was between 5% and 6% and yields were rising, the S&P still returned an average 0.8%.
At 6–7%, that falls to basically zero.
Once yields were above 7% and rising, average monthly returns turned negative.
5% isn't 7% - Stocks are fine until they aren’t
Historically, equities have actually handled the 5–6% yield bucket reasonably well.
In months when the 10-year was between 5% and 6% and yields were rising, the S&P still returned an average 0.8%.
At 6–7%, that falls to basically zero.
Once yields were above 7% and rising, average monthly returns turned negative.
Historically, equities have actually handled the 5–6% yield bucket reasonably well.
In months when the 10-year was between 5% and 6% and yields were rising, the S&P still returned an average 0.8%.
At 6–7%, that falls to basically zero.
Once yields were above 7% and rising, average monthly returns turned negative.
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AWS EC2 ML Capacity Block Prices Up ~15%, Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Effective October 7, 2026, AWS implemented an approximate 15% rate increase on its EC2 Capacity Blocks for machine learning.
That's the fourth consecutive quarterly price increase, and A100 instances are included in the hike for the first time since January.
$AMZN
AWS EC2 ML Capacity Block Prices Up ~15%, Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Effective October 7, 2026, AWS implemented an approximate 15% rate increase on its EC2 Capacity Blocks for machine learning.
That's the fourth consecutive quarterly price increase, and A100 instances are included in the hike for the first time since January.
$AMZN
Effective October 7, 2026, AWS implemented an approximate 15% rate increase on its EC2 Capacity Blocks for machine learning.
That's the fourth consecutive quarterly price increase, and A100 instances are included in the hike for the first time since January.
$AMZN
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Goldman's heuristic is that equities can absorb a rates move until it reaches roughly two standard deviations in a month.
We hit that level this past week.
Goldman's heuristic is that equities can absorb a rates move until it reaches roughly two standard deviations in a month.
We hit that level this past week.
We hit that level this past week.
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MCP Events - What Is Old Is New (again)
Or more commonly known in software design as “pub/sub” aka publish subscribe and webhooks.
We are seeing this now with agents.
We saw the same thing 15+ years ago in cloud computing and it enabled a Cambrian explosion of internet apps.
I suspect the same with agents.
https://developers.openai.com/plugins/build/mcp-events
MCP Events - What Is Old Is New (again)
Or more commonly known in software design as “pub/sub” aka publish subscribe and webhooks.
We are seeing this now with agents.
We saw the same thing 15+ years ago in cloud computing and it enabled a Cambrian explosion of internet apps.
I suspect the same with agents.
https://developers.openai.com/plugins/build/mcp-events
Or more commonly known in software design as “pub/sub” aka publish subscribe and webhooks.
We are seeing this now with agents.
We saw the same thing 15+ years ago in cloud computing and it enabled a Cambrian explosion of internet apps.
I suspect the same with agents.
https://developers.openai.com/plugins/build/mcp-events
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Goldman puts $AMZN on the Conviction List, $375 target vs $249; 51% upside.
Management has estimated AWS could reach a $1tn annual run rate.
Goldman puts $AMZN on the Conviction List, $375 target vs $249; 51% upside.
Management has estimated AWS could reach a $1tn annual run rate.
Management has estimated AWS could reach a $1tn annual run rate.
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France is, how you say, fuct?
France OATs vs Bunds spread now reaching stratospheric highs.
France is, how you say, fuct?
France OATs vs Bunds spread now reaching stratospheric highs.
France OATs vs Bunds spread now reaching stratospheric highs.
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Bessent downplays rising yields and AI bubble concerns
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is consistent with a global trend and does not warrant overreaction.
In an Axios interview Saturday he said he would be worried only by an idiosyncratic spike and that he has not seen flows selling U.S. Treasuries to buy Bunds or JGBs.
He added he cannot control the bond market and can only urge market participants to pause and reassess. Bessent praised U.S. financial intervention in Argentina, said he is open to similar assistance in future, and called Argentina’s stabilization potentially generational for Latin America’s alignment with the U.S.
He also dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, noting heavy investment from Microsoft, Google and Meta and marked revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI.
Bessent downplays rising yields and AI bubble concerns
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is consistent with a global trend and does not warrant overreaction.
In an Axios interview Saturday he said he would be worried only by an idiosyncratic spike and that he has not seen flows selling U.S. Treasuries to buy Bunds or JGBs.
He added he cannot control the bond market and can only urge market participants to pause and reassess. Bessent praised U.S. financial intervention in Argentina, said he is open to similar assistance in future, and called Argentina’s stabilization potentially generational for Latin America’s alignment with the U.S.
He also dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, noting heavy investment from Microsoft, Google and Meta and marked revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is consistent with a global trend and does not warrant overreaction.
In an Axios interview Saturday he said he would be worried only by an idiosyncratic spike and that he has not seen flows selling U.S. Treasuries to buy Bunds or JGBs.
He added he cannot control the bond market and can only urge market participants to pause and reassess. Bessent praised U.S. financial intervention in Argentina, said he is open to similar assistance in future, and called Argentina’s stabilization potentially generational for Latin America’s alignment with the U.S.
He also dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, noting heavy investment from Microsoft, Google and Meta and marked revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI.
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Gasoline prices plotted against the Democratic generic ballot margin through September 2026.
It’s really that simple, isn’t it?
Gasoline prices plotted against the Democratic generic ballot margin through September 2026.
It’s really that simple, isn’t it?
It’s really that simple, isn’t it?
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The front end of the $VIX term structure is unlike anything we’ve seen heading into midterms for quite some time, if ever.
The front end of the $VIX term structure is unlike anything we’ve seen heading into midterms for quite some time, if ever.
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Gridlock after midterms +25% 2Y S&P vs +18% since 1950
From election day it's +21% vs +18%.
S&P is already up ~60% this presidential cycle vs a ~39% average full-term gain.
Gridlock after midterms +25% 2Y S&P vs +18% since 1950
From election day it's +21% vs +18%.
S&P is already up ~60% this presidential cycle vs a ~39% average full-term gain.
From election day it's +21% vs +18%.
S&P is already up ~60% this presidential cycle vs a ~39% average full-term gain.
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$200 billion of US data center projects blocked in H1, and ~90% of ERCOT connection requests are now data centers
@GoldmanSachs’s Adam Wijaya flagged on Oct 1 that $200 billion of DC projects got blocked across the US in the first half, Texas being a main battleground.
Over 600 DCs in the state, around 80 under construction, around 173 planned.
$200 billion of US data center projects blocked in H1, and ~90% of ERCOT connection requests are now data centers
@GoldmanSachs’s Adam Wijaya flagged on Oct 1 that $200 billion of DC projects got blocked across the US in the first half, Texas being a main battleground.
Over 600 DCs in the state, around 80 under construction, around 173 planned.
@GoldmanSachs’s Adam Wijaya flagged on Oct 1 that $200 billion of DC projects got blocked across the US in the first half, Texas being a main battleground.
Over 600 DCs in the state, around 80 under construction, around 173 planned.
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$TDEX 👀 +11% today.
If this gets moving, $VIX going to rip.
$TDEX 👀 +11% today.
If this gets moving, $VIX going to rip.
If this gets moving, $VIX going to rip.
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$MOVE vs $VIX gap looks ridiculous
Irrespective of your equity view, having some VIX call spreads onboard is sensible.
$MOVE vs $VIX gap looks ridiculous
Irrespective of your equity view, having some VIX call spreads onboard is sensible.
Irrespective of your equity view, having some VIX call spreads onboard is sensible.
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EU Semis vs software turns after almost 40% drawdown
@OpenAI’s new Dots is the shift from chatbots to always-on agents in one product.
More agents means more compute demand and more heat on incumbent software.
EU Semis vs software turns after almost 40% drawdown
@OpenAI’s new Dots is the shift from chatbots to always-on agents in one product.
More agents means more compute demand and more heat on incumbent software.
@OpenAI’s new Dots is the shift from chatbots to always-on agents in one product.
More agents means more compute demand and more heat on incumbent software.
57
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Widest 2Y vs S&P dividend yield gap since Oct 2000
2-year Treasury is at 4.88% versus the S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.05%.
That's a 3.83 percentage point spread, the widest since October 2000 and the widest in the dataset going back to 1999.
Widest 2Y vs S&P dividend yield gap since Oct 2000
2-year Treasury is at 4.88% versus the S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.05%.
That's a 3.83 percentage point spread, the widest since October 2000 and the widest in the dataset going back to 1999.
2-year Treasury is at 4.88% versus the S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.05%.
That's a 3.83 percentage point spread, the widest since October 2000 and the widest in the dataset going back to 1999.
IEFETF-0,27%
SPYB+0,10%
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The Iran conflict resolution is embedded in the the options market.
Oil skew is one-sided.
In a normal crisis you'd expect both wings to bid: calls against another supply shock and puts against a sudden resolution.
The market is only paying up for a resolution-driven collapse, not another oil spike.
$USO $OVX
The Iran conflict resolution is embedded in the the options market.
Oil skew is one-sided.
In a normal crisis you'd expect both wings to bid: calls against another supply shock and puts against a sudden resolution.
The market is only paying up for a resolution-driven collapse, not another oil spike.
$USO $OVX
Oil skew is one-sided.
In a normal crisis you'd expect both wings to bid: calls against another supply shock and puts against a sudden resolution.
The market is only paying up for a resolution-driven collapse, not another oil spike.
$USO $OVX
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Binance Square платформасында әлемдік криптоқоғамдастыққа қосылыңыз
⚡️ Криптовалюта туралы ең соңғы және пайдалы ақпаратты алыңыз.
💬 Әлемдегі ең ірі криптобиржаның сеніміне ие.
👍 Расталған авторлардың нақты пікірлерін табыңыз.
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SECHaltsCryptoETFReviewsAmidFundingLapse
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#SECHaltsCryptoETFReviewsAmidFundingLapse
SEC Halts Crypto ETF Reviews Amid Funding Lapse
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly paused certain cryptocurrency ETF review activities amid a government funding lapse.
This development has created uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly for investors and companies waiting for regulatory decisions on crypto-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Impact on the Crypto Market
The delay could affect the approval timeline of pending crypto ETF applications. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as regulatory clarity remains an important factor in the growth of the digital asset industry.
Although the pause does not necessarily mean that crypto ETF applications will be rejected, it highlights how government funding disruptions can influence financial regulatory processes.
What Happens Next?
Market participants will be watching for updates on government funding and the SEC's ability to resume normal operations.
Crypto ETFs remain an important topic for institutional adoption, market development, and investor confidence.
Conclusion: The temporary halt highlights the importance of regulatory stability for the future of cryptocurrency investments.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #ETF #SEC #CryptoNews #Blockchain #Binance
King2112
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