A lot of traders came into 2026 expecting Bitcoin to follow the same 4-year cycle we’ve seen before.
The idea was that we should still be in an accumulation phase.
But that’s not really what happened. We had our accumulation months ago, and Bitcoin has continued pushing higher despite a lot of negative macro and geopolitical news.
We’ve had rate hikes, inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and plenty of reasons for Bitcoin to correct heavily.
But every time, the market has absorbed the news and Bitcoin has held relatively strong.
I think that’s something we need to pay attention to.
Bitcoin in 2026 isn’t the same Bitcoin we had in 2017 or 2021.
We now have ETFs, institutions, corporations, and potentially governments accumulating Bitcoin.
The adoption we were talking about four years ago is actually happening now.
So maybe it’s time to stop looking at Bitcoin purely through the lens of the old 4-year cycle.
In a bull run, the entry you’re waiting for might never come.
BTC is around $84K right now, and I see a lot of people waiting for $79K, $75K, $70K or even lower before they enter.
But that’s the problem with bull markets.
When FOMO kicks in and buyers start chasing price, the market doesn’t always give you the perfect pullback you’re waiting for. You can spend weeks waiting for your “ideal entry” while BTC keeps moving higher.
From a technical perspective, we’ve also got an important signal: last week’s candle closed above the 50-day moving average, with a strong body. If momentum continues, the next weekly candle could remain bullish.
The level I’m watching next is the $90K mid-range target.
If we get another strong move today or tomorrow, $90K could come into play quickly.
So personally, I wouldn’t be looking to short aggressively while the market is showing bullish momentum.
And if you’re bullish but waiting for much lower prices, there’s always a risk that those levels simply never come.
Instead, consider building your position gradually and managing your risk, with $90K as the next level to watch. Once we reach it, we can reassess what the market is telling us.
These are just my two cents. DYOR and manage your risk.
$BTC absorbed another shock of Russia & Europe war threats. If we get a weekly closing above $79k today we’re heading north. DO NOT short, the next move will be violent. You have been warned.
$BTC absorbed another shock of Russia & Europe war threats. If we get a weekly closing above $79k today we’re heading north. DO NOT short, the next move will be violent. You have been warned.
Everyone is focused on rate cuts and institutional inflows, but geopolitics could become the black swan nobody is pricing in. The new US-Iran framework is moving toward a deal that includes sanctions relief, frozen asset releases, and a temporary freeze on Iran’s nuclear expansion. Interestingly, Israel is not directly part of the agreement, and criticism inside Israel has been growing because many believe the deal does not address their core security concerns. That raises an uncomfortable question: What happens if Israel decides to act independently and military tensions flare up again? Any breakdown in the current ceasefire could send oil prices higher, increase market uncertainty, and trigger a risk-off event across global markets. Some analysts already warn that strikes in Lebanon or renewed conflict could jeopardize the agreement. And remember: Bitcoin is still trading near areas where sentiment is extremely bullish. When everyone expects higher prices, markets usually punish the majority. A sudden geopolitical shock + profit taking + excessive leverage could be the perfect recipe for a sharp correction. Imagine waking up to: • Oil surging. • Stocks selling off. • Liquidations accelerating. • $BTC dropping 10-20% in days. Most people are preparing for $150k. Very few are preparing for a move that scares everyone first. History has shown that markets often move in the direction that hurts the most participants. Am I bearish long term? No. But in the short term, I think the market is dangerously complacent. What’s your view? Is Bitcoin heading to new highs first, or are traders underestimating the geopolitical risk? #USIranDealConfirmed #btc70k