Zarrar_X 1

$BTC YEARLY PRICE ACTION BREAKDOWN 📊

As decided by the community, we’re starting this new price action series with Bitcoin. Instead of jumping straight into support, resistance, and entries, we’re going to zoom out first and build the picture from the higher timeframes down.

Looking at the last 3 yearly candles, 2024 gave us a strong bullish expansion, with BTC pushing from the $40K area toward the $100K+ region. The yearly high around $107K and the close around $93K are important levels from that move, while the $38K-$42K area remains the major downside reference from the candle.

Then came 2025. BTC pushed above the previous yearly high and printed a new ATH around $125K, but the move was rejected and the candle closed back below its open. That creates an important resistance zone around $107K-$125K, with the $125K area standing out as the major rejection point.

Now we have the 2026 candle, and the story has changed. BTC is currently trading well below the yearly open, showing continued selling pressure after the rejection from the 2025 ATH. The key levels I'm watching from this yearly structure are around $75K, $87K, $93K, $97K and $107K above, while $42K and $38K remain the major levels below.

This is only the first step. We haven't reached the entry yet.

Next, we’ll move into the Quarterly timeframe and see how these yearly levels developed through the smaller structure before going further down to Monthly, Weekly, Daily and eventually the lower-timeframe entry zones.

Big picture first. Entries later!
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto

$ZEC is showing a clear rejection from the $515–$520 area, with sellers starting to regain control on the 1H chart. The recent push higher has not yet broken the larger supply zone around $520–$528.

A pullback toward the $485–$487 demand zone looks like the key move to watch. If buyers defend this area, it could provide the base for another attempt higher.

For the bullish continuation, #ZEC needs to reclaim $515+ and eventually break through the $520–$528 supply. That would open the door for a stronger continuation.

Until then, the cleaner roadmap is $515 rejection → $485–$487 retest → reaction. Losing that demand zone would weaken the setup and could send price deeper into the previous range.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

🇺🇸 US Treasury Moves to Implement the GENIUS Act.

The U.S. Treasury is now seeking public feedback on rules for implementing the GENIUS Act, the landmark stablecoin law signed in July 2025. The proposed rules focus on defining when a stablecoin is considered issued in the U.S. and when companies are offering or selling stablecoins to U.S. users.

Under the framework, payment stablecoin issuers generally need an appropriate federal or state license. Digital asset platforms will also face restrictions around foreign-issued stablecoins unless those issuers can meet U.S. legal and regulatory requirements.

The law is expected to take effect on January 18, 2027, while some restrictions on offering unlicensed payment stablecoins to U.S. users come into effect later. Treasury is giving the public 60 days to submit comments after the proposal appears in the Federal Register.

This is another major step toward bringing stablecoins into a defined regulatory framework. For crypto, the bigger implication is that regulated dollar-backed stablecoins could become increasingly integrated into the U.S. financial system, while issuers and exchanges that don't meet the new requirements could face significant restrictions.

$BTC #Macro Insights# #Crypto

How to Access TON DeFi From Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Base.

Moving liquidity into TON DeFi from Ethereum, BNB Chain, or Base is no longer unusual. Choosing the right route is still the harder part.

Two paths exist. A bridge locks the source asset and issues a wrapped jetton on TON. An atomic-swap through Omniston delivers a native TON asset directly through paired HTLCs. Both get value across chains. They leave you with very different things at the destination.

The bridge path makes sense when a specific TON protocol requires that wrapped jetton. For most users the real goal is usable value on TON in a form that can be deployed immediately. That is what Omniston is built around.

You sign a quote request for the asset you want on TON. Resolvers compete via RFQ to fill it. Both sides settle atomically once the secret is revealed. If the resolver never responds, you get refunded by timelock. No path exists where both parties lose funds. The quote shown at confirmation is the price that executes — no drift between approval and settlement.

Three situations where moving into TON makes sense. You want to rebalance in a lower-fee environment. You want exposure to TON-native tokens that exist nowhere else. Or you want to diversify liquidity provision across ecosystems.

Once native TON assets arrive, STONfi handles the rest swaps, liquidity pools, and farming programs.

–Read the Full Guide : https://blog.ston.fi/how-to-access-ton-defi-from-ethereum-bnb-chain-and-base/

–Try Cross-Chain Swaps on STONfi : https://app.ston.fi/swap?mode=cross-chain&in=ton%3AUSD%E2%82%AE

$BTC $XRP. #BTC Price Analysis# #Crypto #Macro Insights#

Bitcoin’s “Lost” Supply Just Hit an All-Time High.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says 3.56 million BTC has now been inactive for more than 10 years, representing roughly 17.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Around 14,000 BTC entered this dormant cohort over the past 30 days.

That is significant because coins that remain untouched for a decade are increasingly likely to include lost keys, forgotten wallets, or extremely committed long-term holders. Either way, they are not part of Bitcoin’s actively traded supply.

If a meaningful portion of that BTC is genuinely unrecoverable, Bitcoin’s effective available supply could be considerably smaller than the headline circulating figure suggests. That creates an interesting supply dynamic: less BTC available to sell means relatively modest demand can have a larger impact when buying pressure returns.

But there’s an important distinction: “lost” does not necessarily mean provably lost. Some of those 3.56M BTC could still be controlled by holders who simply haven't moved their coins for years.

Either way, the number reinforces one of Bitcoin’s strongest scarcity narratives: the 21M maximum supply isn't the same thing as the amount of BTC that will actually be available to the market.

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #BTC #Macro Insights#

🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Just Held Through the Bitcoin Dip.

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are showing serious conviction in Bitcoin. Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council kept their combined $763.7M position in BlackRock’s $IBIT unchanged, even as Bitcoin fell sharply from its 2025 highs.

Mubadala holds about $490M worth of IBIT, making Bitcoin its second-largest reported U.S. portfolio position, while ADIC holds roughly $273.6M, its largest reported position. The key detail is that neither fund reduced its share count during Q2.

That doesn't mean Abu Dhabi bought $764M of Bitcoin during the dip. Their holdings were worth about $881M at the end of March, so the decline reflects Bitcoin's price falling while the funds simply held their positions.

And there may be more exposure that isn't visible in these filings. 13F reports only cover certain U.S.-listed securities, meaning they cannot confirm or rule out direct Bitcoin holdings. Arkham has also previously attributed roughly 6,782 BTC to mining wallets linked to the UAE's Royal Group.

The message is simple: Abu Dhabi isn't treating the Bitcoin dip as a reason to run. They're sitting through it.

$BTC $LINK #BTC Price Analysis# #Dubai #Macro Insights#

A NEW WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET.

I’m adding something new to my market analysis, but we’re not abandoning the usual style.

The regular analysis will continue as usual: looking at the trend direction, identifying key support and resistance levels, and highlighting potential entry zones. This will still apply to newer tokens and assets that may not have years of price history.

But for established assets with enough historical data, I want to take things a step further.

I’m introducing a new Top-Down Price Action Series where we’ll break an asset down from the bigger picture:

Yearly → Quarterly → Monthly → Weekly → Daily → Lower Timeframes.

We’ll study the historical price action at each level before zooming in to identify possible entry zones.

The idea is simple: instead of only looking at where price is right now, let’s understand the bigger picture first, then work our way down.

I’m thinking of starting this series with BTC, but I want your opinion.

Which asset should we start with?

$LINK $BEAT

Let’s see what you guys choose.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season# #Macro Insights#

$1M Bitcoin by 2030 Is “Mathematically Impossible,” Says 10x Research.

Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 would require an enormous amount of new capital, according to 10x Research head Markus Thielen. With BTC around $63,868 and a market cap near $1.28T, he estimates roughly $15T in additional capital would be needed to reach the $1M target.

Thielen argues that Bitcoin's historical capital inflows don't support that timeline. At higher valuations, increasingly larger amounts of money are required to push the price significantly higher, making the jump to $1M within four years extremely difficult.

He also warns against assuming Bitcoin will quickly repeat previous cycles. Even returning to the $100K region would represent a major achievement from current levels, in his view.

Still, calling $1M “mathematically impossible” is more of a capital-flow argument than a mathematical proof. Bitcoin's price isn't determined by a simple one-to-one relationship between market cap and fresh money entering the asset. Changes in liquidity, holder behavior, supply dynamics and valuation multiples can all affect the outcome.

So the real question isn't whether $1M Bitcoin is mathematically impossible. It's whether $15T of additional economic value and sufficient demand can realistically support that valuation by 2030.

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto

$LINK is showing strong 1H momentum after breaking out of the $8.70-$9.00 consolidation area.

Price is now around $9.44, with the recent impulse pushing toward the $9.70-$9.85 supply area. The broader short-term structure remains bullish, and current market data also shows #LINK holding above $9 after a strong move this week.

The main thing to watch here is whether LINK can sustain above $9.40-$9.50. A clean push through $9.70-$9.85 could extend the move toward $10.00-$10.20, while rejection around that ceiling would make a retracement increasingly likely.

The marked $8.70-$8.85 demand zone is the key area on this chart. That's where the previous breakout structure began to develop, so a deeper pullback into that region could provide the strongest opportunity for buyers to defend the trend. Losing $8.70 would weaken the current bullish structure and potentially send LINK back toward $8.40-$8.50.

For now, the setup is bullish but extended. I wouldn't chase aggressively into the upper resistance; either a confirmed breakout above $9.85 or a controlled pullback into support offers a cleaner risk profile.
#Macro Insights# #AltcoinSeason

STONfi Goes Live August 20 | Gram Wallet Is Coming and Builders Are Ready.

Telegram is preparing to launch a native non-custodial Gram Wallet. The question is what gets built on top of it, and that conversation is happening live on August 20.

STONfi is hosting a live discussion with WenLong, Gram Store, and DTrade to look at what is already being built and what could come next for Telegram-native crypto products.

– August 20 · 15:00 UTC

What the session covers:
> What the next generation of Telegram-native crypto products could look like
> What these teams are building and how users experience their products
> What builders are expecting from the Gram Wallet launch
> How STONfi infrastructure works underneath it all

A live community poll runs during the session — your answers become part of the discussion.

There is also 150 STON up for grabs. A question drops at the end of the stream. Answer it under the official X post before August 21 at 15:00 UTC to win:

> Best answer gets 70 STON
> 2 random winners get 40 STON each

- Register for the Event : https://luma.com/5c0t5b88

$LINK $ACE #Macro Insights# #Crypto #AltcoinSeason

AKE is showing a parabolic 1H expansion, with price ripping from around $0.004 to a recent high near $0.0128 before pulling back toward $0.0108.

The key area to watch is the $0.0062-$0.0070 demand zone marked on the chart. If the rally needs a deeper reset, that is the main region where buyers could attempt to rebuild structure. A shallower pullback around $0.0080-$0.0090 could also provide an earlier reaction, but losing that area would make a deeper retracement more likely.

For continuation, $AKE needs to reclaim and hold above roughly $0.0115-$0.0120, with the recent $0.0128 high acting as the immediate ceiling. A clean break above that high could open the way toward $0.0140-$0.0160, while repeated rejection would favor another move lower.

After a 60%+ 1H expansion, chasing the current candle carries elevated risk. The cleaner setup is either a controlled pullback that holds support or a confirmed breakout and retest. Bias: bullish structure, but heavily extended in the short term.
#Macro Insights# #Crypto #Altcoin Season#

Binance Moves to Block HTX and 10+ Exchanges Under EU Sanctions.

Binance is tightening its compliance controls, announcing plans to block transactions involving 16 crypto exchanges and service providers, including major exchange HTX (formerly Huobi). The move follows regulatory actions tied to allegations of helping Russia circumvent sanctions.

The restrictions are being introduced in stages, with several platforms already affected and additional entities scheduled to be blocked from August 23. Binance says transactions involving the listed entities could trigger compliance reviews and potentially lead to wallet restrictions.

The development highlights how quickly geopolitical sanctions are spreading into crypto infrastructure. Even centralized exchanges operating globally are increasingly required to restrict counterparties connected to sanctioned jurisdictions or activities.

For Binance users, the key takeaway is simple: avoid sending or receiving funds involving the listed platforms after their respective cutoff dates, as such transactions may face additional compliance checks or restrictions.

$BTC. #BTC Price Analysis# #BNBChain# #Crypto

$ACE has gone into a parabolic 1H expansion, jumping over 100% and pushing into the $0.25 area. Momentum is extremely strong, but the distance from the previous base makes a cooling-off move increasingly likely.

The key level now is $0.18–$0.20. A pullback that holds this region could turn the previous breakout into support and give buyers a healthier base for continuation.

If #ACE stabilizes above that zone, the next major objective is around $0.28–$0.30, where the chart shows overhead resistance. A clean break could extend the move, but chasing after such a vertical rally carries higher risk.

For now, watch the pullback rather than the pump. Holding $0.18–$0.20 keeps the bullish structure intact, while losing it would signal that the move needs a deeper reset.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

STONfi Leads TON DeFi With ~78% of All DEX Swap Volume.

The numbers just dropped and they are worth paying attention to.

STONfi holds approximately 78% of all TON DEX swap volume, nearly 5x more than the second-place venue. And roughly 59% of DEX users on TON, about 1.6x more than the runner-up.

What the stats do not fully capture is Omniston. By aggregating TON liquidity across multiple sources, STONfi's real contribution to swap execution on TON is broader than any single venue metric shows. That makes STONfi not just the leading DEX on TON, but one of the core execution layers of the entire ecosystem.

Thanks to everyone swapping, building, and growing with us. There is more ahead.

Swap on STONfi : app.ston.fi

$LAB $VELVET #Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#

Cross-Chain Swaps Are Not a Feature Anymore | They Are the New Default.

For a while most DeFi activity lived on one network. Then the ecosystem fragmented across dozens of chains and everything changed.

Total Value Locked is now spread across Ethereum, multiple Layer 2s, BNB Chain, Solana, TON, and a long tail of newer chains. The same asset exists on fifteen or more chains simultaneously. Yield gaps between chains are large enough to justify moving capital regularly. Mainstream wallets already support multiple chains by default.

A platform reachable from only one chain is reachable from only one chain, no matter how efficient the AMM or how generous the incentives.

Three mechanisms handle cross-chain movement and their risk profiles are not interchangeable.

Bridges lock the token on the source chain and mint a wrapped version on the destination. Fast and practical. The bridge contract holds custody the entire time, concentrated custody risk that bridge exploits have repeatedly proven is real.

Peer-to-peer atomic swaps use HTLCs so no third party holds anything. Most trustless option by design. The problem is practical, both parties need to show up before the clock runs out.

Resolver-based HTLC networks solve that bottleneck. A user matches with a professional resolver via RFQ and both sides settle through paired HTLCs. Only three outcomes, both receive their target asset, both retain their original asset, or both refunds execute. No path exists where both parties lose funds.

This is Omniston's design. No bridge contract, no wrapped token, user custody throughout. Phase 1 EVM coverage spans Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, and Polygon. For TON-native swaps, STONfi handles everything without any cross-chain step.

- Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/cross-chain-swaps-is-not-a-feature-its-the-new-default-for-defi/

#Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#
$HYPE $GRAM

Inflation Cooled, so Why Didn't BTC Break Out? Macro Analysis.

July's CPI report landed exactly at expectations (3.4% headline, 2.5% core), yet $BTC slipped back toward $63,500. Three factors are holding the price back:

> Priced In: In-line CPI removes downside risk but provides zero surprise to trigger a buy-side squeeze.

> Neutral Liquidity: A rate pause isn't active quantitative easing. Without direct Fed balance sheet expansion, macro liquidity stays flat.

> Overhead Wall & Delay: BTC has failed six attempts to close above the $65,000–$65,500 resistance zone, while the Senate's delay of the CLARITY Act keeps institutional capital on the sidelines.

Until spot ETF inflows surge or #BTC closes above $65,500, price remains locked in consolidation.

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$PI is consolidating around $0.088, with the 1H structure showing repeated reactions from the $0.0845–$0.0863 demand zone. Sellers are currently pressing price lower, so this area is the key level to watch.

A sweep into that demand followed by a strong 1H reclaim could set up the next bounce. The first hurdle is around $0.0922–$0.0935, where recent price action has struggled to hold above.

If buyers regain momentum, the main upside objective sits at $0.0922–$0.0935, matching the marked supply zone. That would be the major test for the recovery.

The setup is basically demand → reclaim → $0.090 → $0.0922–$0.0935. If $0.0850 gives way cleanly, however, the bullish roadmap loses strength and lower levels could come into play.
#PiNetwork #Altcoin Season# #MarketAnalysis

$SOL is showing signs of a short-term pullback after failing to sustain the $76.20–$76.90 resistance zone. Price is currently around $75.50, with sellers gradually taking control on the 1H structure.

The immediate downside area is $73.50–$73.80, which is the key demand zone marked on the chart. A move into this region could provide the reaction buyers need for another attempt higher.

If #SOL defends that demand, a rebound toward $76.20 is possible, followed by a retest of $76.20–$76.80. A clean breakout above that supply would shift momentum back toward the upside.

For now, the setup favors a pullback into $73.50–$73.80 before another potential push higher. Losing that demand zone would weaken the bullish structure and expose lower support.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

The Future of Cross-Chain UX | Will Users Even Know What Chain They Are On?

Cross-chain complexity is already being hidden from most users. The direction is clear and most of it is already partially in production.

One screen, one confirmation, one outcome. The user names what they want and signs once. The wallet handles chain detection, route selection, destination gas, and settlement. The "switch network" prompt that defined Web3 UX for years quietly disappears.

Gas paid in whatever you already hold. Account abstraction and resolver-paid gas remove the pre-funding requirement. A user holding only TON can transact on Ethereum, Base, or Polygon without acquiring ETH for gas first.

Settlement is cryptographic, not reputational. Paired HTLCs force three outcomes mechanically, both parties receive what was quoted, the user gets refunded by timelock, or the resolver gets refunded. The user's downside in a failure case is "the swap did not fill" rather than "funds stuck in a bridge contract."

Generic intent networks relocate trust from bridge contracts to solver reputation. Resolver-based HTLC protocols like Omniston go further — cryptographic atomicity means the failure path is mechanical and narrow, not dependent on anyone's goodwill.

Omniston is stablecoin-first with Phase 1 EVM coverage across Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, and Polygon. For TON-native activity, STON.fi handles intrachain swaps natively without any cross-chain step.

– Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/the-future-of-cross-chain-ux-will-users-even-know-what-chain-theyre-on/

– Try Cross-Chain Swaps on STONfi : https://app.ston.fi/swap?mode=cross-chain&in=ton%3AUSD%E2%82%AE

$HYPE $GRAM #TON #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

$15B in Bitcoin Moved to Safety After Coldcard Hack.

The Coldcard exploit may have stolen around 2,100 $BTC , but the bigger story is what happened next. On-chain data shows roughly 233,000 BTC worth about $15 billion moved out of long-term holder wallets as users reassessed their self-custody security.

Casa CEO Nick Neuman says the migration wasn't limited to Coldcard users. Some Ledger and Trezor holders also moved funds into multisig setups, where multiple independent keys are required to authorize transactions.

That means the amount of Bitcoin moved to safety could be 10x to 100x larger than the amount stolen. Instead of triggering a broader self-custody crisis, the exploit gave holders time to react and strengthen their security.

The incident highlights an important feature of Bitcoin: self-custody can be vulnerable at the individual wallet level, but the network itself remains highly resilient because users can respond independently.
#BTC #Macro Insights# #BTC Price Analysis#