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Bitcoin Price vs Business Cycles (ISM PMI) — Chart Update The latest dual chart
from sminston_with overlays Bitcoin’s long-term price action against the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of the U.S. business cycle. Current Snapshot (as of Aug 3–4, 2026): > Bitcoin is trading near $63,500–$64,000 after a multi-month consolidation.
> July ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 55.6, the highest reading since May 2022 and well above the 50 expansion threshold (previous month 53.3).

Historical Pattern on the Chart: Vertical shaded zones mark periods of PMI strength or weakness. Bitcoin has frequently aligned with major PMI swings — expanding when manufacturing activity accelerates and coming under pressure during prolonged contractions. The highlighted 2023–2026 window shows PMI recovering while BTC pulled back from its prior highs, creating a visible divergence that traders are watching closely. Stronger ISM readings (especially sustained moves above 55) have historically coincided with improving risk appetite and liquidity conditions that tend to support Bitcoin and other risk assets. The recent jump was driven by solid gains in production and employment components rather than just price inflation. Bitcoin Holds Near $64K as ISM PMI Hits Multi-Year High of 55.6 Does the renewed strength in the business cycle change how you’re positioning around current $BTC levels, or are you still waiting for clearer confirmation?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#

Trump Gives Iran Deadline of Today or Tomorrow on Strait of Hormuz President Trump has issued a firm ultimatum to Iran, stating that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz must be reached today or tomorrow. Key Points from Trump: > Iran must finalize an agreement (involving Oman) to fully reopen the Strait. > This is Iran’s “last chance” before what he called “decapitation.” > There will be no charging or tolls for access to the waterway under any deal. The president framed the talks as Phase 1 focused on immediate, unrestricted shipping through the critical oil chokepoint, with nuclear issues to follow later. Markets have already reacted to the de-escalation signals, with oil prices sliding and risk assets, including $BTC , finding some support. Trump: Iran Has Until Today/Tomorrow on Hormuz — “Last Chance Before Decapitation” Will this deadline finally reopen the Strait and ease oil pressure, or are we headed for another escalation? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $XRP

BTC Nears $64,000 as Stocks Rise and Oil Drops #Bitcoin is trading just under the $64,000 level at approximately $63,768, up 0.50% on the session. Ethereum is also green, sitting near $1,867 (+0.49%). Pre-market backdrop: > Nasdaq 100 futures: +1.15%
> S&P 500 futures: +0.34%
> WTI Crude Oil: -2.92% (around $77.71)

The move higher in risk assets comes as oil prices continue to slide following signs of de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. Lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, supporting both equities and crypto in early trading. BTC remains focused on reclaiming and holding the $64,000 psychological level amid the broader risk-on tone. $BTC Approaches $64K While Oil Slides and Stock Futures Climb Do you see Bitcoin breaking cleanly above $64,000 today on the back of this macro setup, or does resistance still look valid?

#Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Macro Insights#

DeFi’s Six-Month Losing Streak Ends in July After six consecutive months of decline, total value locked across DeFi protocols climbed back to approximately $73.8 billion in July. The rebound did not come from the major blockchains. Instead, growth was driven almost entirely by the long tail: > The “Others” category more than doubled, rising from $3.46 billion to roughly $7.02 billion.
> The primary catalysts were the launch of Robinhood Chain and rapid TVL gains on smaller networks.

While the overall recovery remains modest and still leaves DeFi well below earlier 2026 levels, the shift toward newer and smaller chains marks a notable change in where capital is flowing. DeFi TVL Rebounds to ~$73.8B as “Others” Category Doubles on Robinhood Chain Launch Is this the start of a broader DeFi recovery, or just a temporary boost from new chain launches?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# $BTC $SOL #Altcoin Season#

30% Chance Clarity Act Becomes Law This Year — All-Time Low Kalshi prediction market traders now price just a 30% chance that crypto market structure legislation (the Clarity Act) becomes law before January 1, 2027. This marks a fresh all-time low for the contract. Odds have steadily declined amid: > Ongoing Senate delays and a crowded legislative calendar > Unresolved ethics and bipartisan negotiations > The approaching August recess, which has further narrowed the window for a floor vote The bill has already cleared the House and advanced through Senate committee, but timing pressures and remaining disagreements continue to weigh heavily on passage prospects this year. Clarity Act Odds Hit 30% on Kalshi — Lowest Level Yet Does this low probability change how you’re positioning for the rest of 2026, or are you still expecting a late push? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL

Hyperliquid Maintains Clear Dominance in Perp DEX Volume #HyperLiquid generated $218 billion in perpetual trading volume during July, according to CryptoRank data — more than the combined total of the next seven leading platforms, which posted roughly $189 billion together. Key Numbers: > Hyperliquid: $218B > Remaining top competitors combined: ~$189B > Notable second-tier volumes: Aster (~$43.6B), Lighter (~$36.4B), GRVT (~$34.4B) Overall activity across the top eight Perp DEXs declined by approximately $85 billion, or 17%, month-over-month. The broader market cooled, yet the structure remained unchanged: liquidity stayed heavily concentrated on Hyperliquid while its closest rivals continued operating in a distinct second tier. This concentration highlights how traders continue to route the bulk of on-chain perpetual volume through a single venue even as overall sector volumes contract. Hyperliquid Posts $218B July Volume — Tops Next Seven DEXs Combined full detailes here: https://cryptorank.io/exchanges/dex/derivatives #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $HYPE $BTC #Altcoin Season#

Hyperliquid Maintains Clear Dominance in Perp DEX Volume Hyperliquid generated $218 billion in perpetual trading volume during July, according to CryptoRank data — more than the combined total of the next seven leading platforms, which posted roughly $189 billion together. Key Numbers: > Hyperliquid: $218B
> Remaining top competitors combined: ~$189B
> Notable second-tier volumes: Aster (~$43.6B), Lighter (~$36.4B), GRVT (~$34.4B)

Overall activity across the top eight Perp DEXs declined by approximately $85 billion, or 17%, month-over-month. The broader market cooled, yet the structure remained unchanged: liquidity stayed heavily concentrated on Hyperliquid while its closest rivals continued operating in a distinct second tier. This concentration highlights how traders continue to route the bulk of on-chain perpetual volume through a single venue even as overall sector volumes contract. Hyperliquid Posts $218B July Volume — Tops Next Seven DEXs Combined

full detailes here: 👉 https://cryptorank.io/exchanges/dex/derivatives

A few reasons why Decentrawood recently caught my attention. This is actually my first time taking a closer look at the project, and a few recent updates stood out. > $DEOD was recently featured in CoinMarketCap's AI Agent Launchpad, giving it more visibility among people exploring AI-powered Web3 projects. > It's also set to list on BingX Spot in a few days, opening the door to a much wider trading audience. > DEOD is already available on MEXC, WEEX, BitMart, CoinDCX Web3, Toobit, and PancakeSwap, so accessibility is already improving across multiple markets. > According to CoinMarketCap, DEOD is still up nearly 2,800% from its all-time low, showing the project has already attracted meaningful attention as the ecosystem continues to expand. What made me stay wasn't just the listings. It was what the project is building. Decentrawood combines AI, gaming, and the metaverse, giving creators tools to build, own, and monetize digital experiences while DEOD powers rewards, NFTs, ecosystem payments, and community participation. I'm still learning more about Decentrawood, but projects that continue building while expanding accessibility are usually worth keeping on a watchlist. Just my personal opinion. t.me/decentrawoodDisscussion #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season# #BTC Price Analysis# $XRP

$BTC is currently trading around $63,500, and this weekly level is one of the most important areas on the chart right now. After months of downside, price is sitting back inside a major demand zone that previously acted as the base for Bitcoin's impulsive move higher. So far, sellers are struggling to push price below this area, which makes this a level worth watching closely. This is the zone I will be watching for long-term positioning. If buyers continue defending this demand and weekly structure holds, I would expect Bitcoin to begin a recovery toward the first major resistance around $97,946, with a possible extension toward the previous all-time high near $125,621. The setup I'm watching is simple: Demand: $53,000 • Target 1: $97,946 • Target 2: $125,621 If this weekly demand holds, $BTC could deliver a much larger move than most people expect. But if we lose this zone with strong bearish momentum on the weekly timeframe, the bullish outlook becomes invalid and further downside would have to be considered. For now, all eyes are on this demand zone. Bitcoin hasn't confirmed the reversal yet, but this is exactly where I believe the next major move could begin. 📈 DYOR. #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Bitcoin

Bitcoin Whales Accumulate Nearly 19,700 $BTC While Retail Holdings Fall Santiment data shows a clear divergence in Bitcoin holder behavior since July 29. Key On-Chain Moves: > Wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC (key stakeholders / mid-to-large holders) added approximately 19,610–19,700 BTC (+0.14%)
> Small retail wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC reduced their share by 0.55%

The shift coincides with fallout from the Coldcard hardware wallet incident, where a firmware entropy flaw led to estimated losses exceeding 1,360 BTC (around $87 million). Fear over self-custody security appears to have prompted even unaffected retail holders to reduce exposure, while larger wallets absorbed the selling. This pattern—whales and sharks accumulating as retail distributes—has historically been viewed as constructive for longer-term supply dynamics, transferring coins toward stronger hands. Whales Add ~19.7K $BTC Since July 29 as Retail Exits — Santiment #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# $SOL #Macro Insights#

Ondo Perps Crosses $6 Billion in Cumulative Trading Volume Ondo Finance’s perpetual futures platform, Ondo Perps, has surpassed $6 billion in total trading volume since launch. Key Metrics: > Cumulative volume: over $6 billion
> Open interest: approximately $75 million
> Recently recorded daily volumes exceeding $300 million
> Ranked among the top 5 platforms for RWA (real-world asset) perpetual trading

Launched in early July 2026, Ondo Perps focuses on leveraged trading (up to 20x) of tokenized U.S. stocks, ETFs, indices, and commodities such as gold, silver, oil, Nvidia, Tesla, S&P 500, and others — available 24/7 to non-U.S. users. The rapid growth highlights rising demand for on-chain exposure to traditional market assets via perpetual contracts. It now sits competitively with other emerging RWA and equity perps platforms. Ondo Perps Hits $6B Cumulative Volume — Top-5 RWA Perps Platform can it keep this pace and challenge the top two perps Dex ? Aster_DEX and HyperliquidX #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $HYPE #Bullish

Michael Saylor says : “I’ve Never Sold a Single Satoshi of My Personal Bitcoin. ”Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor clarified his personal stance on Bitcoin holdings amid recent corporate sales by the company. In a post on X, Saylor stated: “When I say ‘Never Sell Your Bitcoin,’ I speak as one saver to another. I have never sold mine. Not one satoshi. Strategy is a public company, not my wallet. Since 2020, it has disclosed it may buy or sell $BTC to manage capital. Our shared conviction in Bitcoin remains unchanged.” The comment comes hours after Strategy disclosed selling 1,638 $BTC for about $104.7 million (average price ~$63,957), bringing its corporate holdings down to 842,138 BTC. Proceeds helped fund preferred stock distributions and share repurchases while boosting the firm’s USD reserve. Saylor drew a clear distinction between his personal stack—which he says remains fully intact—and the public company’s capital-management decisions. Strategy has long disclosed flexibility to buy or sell Bitcoin as needed for its operations and preferred securities obligations. Saylor Reaffirms Personal HODL: “Not One Satoshi” Sold — Strategy Is Not His Wallet Does the separation between personal conviction and corporate treasury management change how you view Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Macro Insights#

Hashdex to Close and Liquidate Its #Bitcoin ETF Hashdex has announced it will shut down and liquidate its Bitcoin ETF (ticker DEFI). Key Details: > Current assets under management: approximately $14.26 million
> Trading on the exchange will end on August 17, 2026
> Cash distributions to shareholders are expected around August 24, 2026

The fund, which provides exposure to Bitcoin, has remained relatively small compared to the larger U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Liquidation means the underlying Bitcoin holdings will be sold, with proceeds distributed in cash to remaining shareholders. This marks another smaller Bitcoin product exiting the market amid ongoing competition and varying investor flows across the ETF landscape. Hashdex Liquidates $14.26M Bitcoin ETF — Trading Ends Aug. 17 Will more smaller crypto ETFs follow this path as the market consolidates around the largest players?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL

Bitmine Adds Another 10,399 ETH Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies kept its weekly buying streak alive. Latest Purchase: > Acquired 10,399 ETH over the past week > Brings total holdings to approximately 5.8 million $ETH (precisely reported around 5,797,813 ETH) This position now represents roughly 4.8% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. The company remains focused on its long-term goal of accumulating 5% of the network. Bitmine also continued aggressive share buybacks, repurchasing millions of BMNR shares under its authorized program. A large portion of its ETH (over 4.9 million) remains staked, generating ongoing yield. The firm has bought ETH every single week since launching its Ethereum treasury strategy in mid-2025, positioning itself as the largest corporate ETH holder. Bitmine Stacks Another 10K $ETH — Total Nears 5.8 Million (4.8% of Supply) Will they hit the full 5% target before the next major market move? #Ethereum #BitMine #BTC Price Analysis# $BTC

BREAKING: Strategy Sells 1,638 $BTC Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has sold another batch of Bitcoin. Key Details: > Sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2
> Average sale price: $63,957
> Proceeds: approximately $104.7 million

Updated Holdings: > Total Bitcoin now held: 842,138 BTC
> Average cost basis remains around $75,419
> Aggregate purchase price: roughly $63.5 billion

The company used the proceeds primarily to fund preferred-stock dividend distributions and to repurchase STRC shares. It also raised additional capital through MSTR share sales and boosted its USD reserve to $4 billion. This marks another use of Strategy’s BTC Monetization Program, designed to support ongoing preferred dividends and capital structure needs without relying solely on equity issuance. Strategy Offloads 1,638 $BTC — Holdings Drop to 842,138 BTC Is this a temporary liquidity move, or the start of more frequent Bitcoin sales from the largest corporate holder?

BREAKING: Strategy Sells 1,638 $BTC Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has sold another batch of Bitcoin. Key Details: > Sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2 > Average sale price: $63,957 > Proceeds: approximately $104.7 million Updated Holdings: > Total Bitcoin now held: 842,138 BTC > Average cost basis remains around $75,419 > Aggregate purchase price: roughly $63.5 billion The company used the proceeds primarily to fund preferred-stock dividend distributions and to repurchase STRC shares. It also raised additional capital through MSTR share sales and boosted its USD reserve to $4 billion. This marks another use of Strategy’s BTC Monetization Program, designed to support ongoing preferred dividends and capital structure needs without relying solely on equity issuance. Strategy Offloads 1,638 $BTC — Holdings Drop to 842,138 BTC Is this a temporary liquidity move, or the start of more frequent Bitcoin sales from the largest corporate holder? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Strategy

How Many Coins Still Have a Market Cap Above $1B? The $1 billion “unicorn” club in crypto has shrunk. Historical Peaks: > November 2021: 107 assets
> March 2024: 103 assets

Today: Fewer tokens hold that status, even though the overall crypto market has grown in size over the years. The current count sits well below those earlier highs. This reflects a more concentrated market. Capital is clustering into a smaller group of major assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, leading stablecoins, and a handful of large-cap alts), while thousands of newer tokens struggle to reach or maintain billion-dollar valuations. Stablecoins have grown as a share of the $1B+ group, while many former GameFi and NFT tokens have dropped out entirely.The bar for “unicorn” status is harder to clear in this cycle. $1B Club Shrinks — Fewer Tokens Hold Unicorn Status Than in 2021 or 2024 Does this concentration signal a healthier, more mature market, or simply weaker broad-based altcoin demand? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

JUST IN: Japan and China Accelerate Cuts to U.S. Treasury Holdings Japan and China continue reducing their exposure to U.S. government debt at a notable pace. Japan’s Move: ➫ Sold approximately $96 billion in U.S. Treasuries over the past three months.
➫ Holdings now stand at $1.14 trillion — the lowest level since April 2025.
➫ The reduction coincides with large-scale yen-support interventions that required selling foreign reserves, including Treasuries.

China’s Ongoing Shift: > Continues its multi-year trend of gradually trimming its portfolio.
> Official holdings remain near multi-year lows as Beijing prioritizes diversification away from U.S. debt.

These two largest foreign holders of Treasuries are both stepping back. Japan’s sales appear more tactical (linked to currency defense), while China’s reflects a longer-term strategic pivot. Reduced foreign official demand adds another layer of pressure on the Treasury market at a time of elevated U.S. deficits and higher yields. Japan Dumps $96B in Treasuries in 3 Months — China Keeps Trimming Does this signal a broader structural shift in global demand for U.S. debt, or just temporary adjustments?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

BREAKING: Only 33% Chance Clarity Act Becomes Law This Year Prediction markets have sharply lowered the odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026. Current Standing: > Polymarket and similar platforms now price the probability around 25–35%, down dramatically from peaks above 80% earlier in the year. > The bill passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, but it has never received a full Senate floor vote. Why the Odds Collapsed: > Persistent deadlock over a bipartisan ethics provision covering government officials’ crypto holdings. > Extremely tight Senate calendar ahead of the August recess and midterm elections. > Leadership has prioritized other legislation (nominations and Russia sanctions), leaving little runway for a 60-vote cloture threshold. Without a breakthrough in the next few days, the realistic window for 2026 passage is closing fast. A delay would push meaningful market-structure legislation into 2027 or beyond. Clarity Act Passage Odds Sink to ~33% as Senate Clock Runs Out #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# $BTC $XRP #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#

2025 Felt Like the Worst Bull Run Ever — Here’s Why the Pain Hits Different > No classic Bitcoin blow-off top.
> ETH never cleared $5K. > No real altseason. That’s why the losses feel heavier this cycle. Holding through multiple crashes over the last five years suddenly feels like it counted for nothing when the expected late-cycle fireworks never arrived. But perspective matters.If you’re down 80%, you’re still in the game.
Most people got completely wiped in the October 10th liquidation cascade — on top of the endless rugs, hacks, and scams of the past two years. Your portfolio still has a path back. Theirs often doesn’t. Looking ahead, the structural setup is different. Regulatory progress around market structure (Clarity Act still moving through Congress), real-world assets, tokenization, and stablecoins is opening the door for much larger institutional flows than previous cycles ever saw. The next bull run has the potential to be the biggest yet — and quite possibly the last true retail-driven one as traditional capital takes over the driver’s seat. Still standing after the worst cycle in recent memory puts you in rare company.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# $BTC $ETH #Altcoin Season#