Update 2 — 2026-11-11. Previous: Update 1 — 2026-10-22.
Bias: Bearish
Since Update 1, ETH has done exactly what the alternative mapped — and then kept going. Update 1 published Neutral at ~$2,399 on Oct 22, already below its own range: the Oct 22 daily close printed $2,398.86, under the $2,425 alternative trigger, and the invalidation fired two days later (Oct 24 close $2,306.73, below $2,329). The recovery since never got near the old supply: the best high after publish was $2,450.79 on Nov 3, still $70 below the $2,520.75–$2,552.59 supply zone, which remains untested. After a three-day congestion at $2,206–$2,242 (Nov 5–7), ETH broke down on Nov 8 — the daily close fell to $2,147.53 — and the Nov 9 close printed $2,023.79 after a low of $2,005. From the Oct 20 high of $2,515.55 to the Nov 9 low, ETH is down 20.3%. ETH trades at ~$2,044.14 (OKX, 09:54 UTC), inside the $2,005–$2,063.29 demand zone it is testing right now — the bounce off $2,005 has recovered only 10.1% of the Oct 20–Nov 9 decline. The moving averages confirm the bearish read: price sits below EMA20 ($2,280.26), EMA50 ($2,365.03) and EMA200 ($2,283.13), below SMA50 ($2,461.89) and below SMA200 ($2,153.40); EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, and EMA20 sits just under EMA200. Daily RSI is 29.3 — oversold, which warns a bounce can come fast, but oversold alone is not a reversal signal. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,515.55–$2,005 leg sits at $2,200.03, just under the resistance band, and the 50% retracement of the $2,450.79–$2,005 leg sits at $2,227.89, inside it — the ceiling is confluence, not a single line.
Key zones:
- Resistance: $2,206–$2,242 (Nov 5 low $2,206, Nov 6 low $2,216.94, Nov 7 low $2,222.58 and close $2,242 — three-day congestion, broken Nov 8; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,515.55–$2,005 leg sits at $2,200.03 just below the band, and the 50% retracement of the $2,450.79–$2,005 leg sits at $2,227.89 inside it)
- Key level: $2,125.49 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,515.55–$2,005 leg — the first reclaim level above current price)
- Demand: $2,005–$2,063.29 (Nov 9 low $2,005 and Nov 8 low $2,063.29 — price trades inside it now; a daily close below $2,005 breaks it)
- Resistance: $2,426.44–$2,450.79 (Nov 3 close $2,426.44 and spike high $2,450.79 — the recovery high, rejected; the top of the alternative path)
BASE scenario: rejection under $2,206–$2,242 keeps the drift going — first retest is the demand zone $2,005–$2,063.29, already under test. A daily close below $2,005 opens a deeper leg; no fresh verified support sits below it until the August congestion around $1,853.76–$1,912.41.
ALTERNATIVE scenario: a daily close above $2,242 reclaims the Nov 5–7 congestion and ends the bearish read — $2,426.44–$2,450.79 first, then the old supply at $2,520.75–$2,552.59.
INVALIDATION: a daily close above $2,242 ends the bearish read and flips the view back to range/neutral.
Risk note: CPI printed Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC — headline +0.4% month over month (forecast +0.3%), core +0.3% (forecast +0.2%), hotter than expected, and the BLS published no year-over-year rate (the October 2025 base was never collected). The 4H bar covering the release printed a low of $2,005 and closed at $2,023.79, and the labelled Nov 10 candle has since bounced to ~$2,056.72 — the hot print did not break the low, but it reclaimed nothing either. Recorded N=21 CPI pattern: BTC +24h average +0.64%, positive in 15 of 21 — no directional bet on the print itself. The week ahead carries PPI Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC (no recorded pattern in our data). On the shock context: the Binance shock state was CLOSED as a blocking state on Nov 4 under the 48-hour time cap — named context only, no directional bet. This is analysis, not financial advice.
