$MU ISN’T MOVING LIKE THE EARNINGS SUGGEST 👀
My initial read: the market is still treating Micron like a classic memory-cycle story.
Q4 DRAM revenue jumped 27% sequentially, while bit shipments grew only mid-single digits and pricing did the heavy lifting. NAND revenue surged 42%, with pricing up ~30%. That naturally raises the question: what happens when supply catches up?
But this quarter gave investors a very different piece of information.
🔹 26 Strategic Customer Agreements
🔹 SCAs now cover 35%+ of revenue through 2030
🔹 Some agreements extend into 2031
🔹 Customer commitments reached ~$32B
🔹 Management expects memory markets to remain supply-constrained through 2027–2028
🔹 Major new cleanroom capacity is largely coming online from late 2028 onward
Micron also guided Q1 FY2027 to ~$61.5B revenue and $38.15 adjusted EPS.
So the bigger question isn't simply:
“Are these peak earnings?”
It's:
“Can Micron maintain structurally higher earnings for longer than the market expects?”
If MU eventually sustains something around $200 in forward EPS and the market values those earnings at 10x, the math points to roughly $2,000/share.
That's not a prediction — it's simply the valuation math behind the thesis.
The key risk remains the same: memory is cyclical, and pricing/supply can change.
But the visibility into future demand is looking very different from previous cycles. 👀
$MU #Micron #Semiconductors $MU
My initial read: the market is still treating Micron like a classic memory-cycle story.
Q4 DRAM revenue jumped 27% sequentially, while bit shipments grew only mid-single digits and pricing did the heavy lifting. NAND revenue surged 42%, with pricing up ~30%. That naturally raises the question: what happens when supply catches up?
But this quarter gave investors a very different piece of information.
🔹 26 Strategic Customer Agreements
🔹 SCAs now cover 35%+ of revenue through 2030
🔹 Some agreements extend into 2031
🔹 Customer commitments reached ~$32B
🔹 Management expects memory markets to remain supply-constrained through 2027–2028
🔹 Major new cleanroom capacity is largely coming online from late 2028 onward
Micron also guided Q1 FY2027 to ~$61.5B revenue and $38.15 adjusted EPS.
So the bigger question isn't simply:
“Are these peak earnings?”
It's:
“Can Micron maintain structurally higher earnings for longer than the market expects?”
If MU eventually sustains something around $200 in forward EPS and the market values those earnings at 10x, the math points to roughly $2,000/share.
That's not a prediction — it's simply the valuation math behind the thesis.
The key risk remains the same: memory is cyclical, and pricing/supply can change.
But the visibility into future demand is looking very different from previous cycles. 👀
$MU #Micron #Semiconductors $MU