Lesson Six on Trading Guidelines:
1. Macro-economic factors and news play a crucial role in influencing market trends, especially as macroeconomics provides insights into the overall market direction. For instance, the monetary policies of institutions like the Federal Reserve often dictate market fluctuations, closely tied to fund movements.
2. As the bullish market at the end of 2021 gradually shifted towards a bearish trend, several factors came into play. For instance, the Federal Reserve initiated a tightening monetary policy due to inflation concerns, leading to an interest rate hike. This resulted in a rapid outflow of hot money from cryptocurrencies and other financial industries, causing a swift decline. This can be considered a significant signal of a bear market.
3. The collapse of LUNA and the FTX incident in 2022 accelerated the pace of entering the bear market. Each major event can be analyzed through chart reviews to understand its background and potential consequences.
4. Recently, the focus has been on Bitcoin spot ETFs and the Bitcoin halving, both considered as relatively positive factors.
5. It is crucial to closely monitor whether the Federal Reserve will enter a phase of interest rate reduction and monetary easing. This implies that hot money is about to re-enter the market, pushing it towards another peak. Aligning one's trading direction with these major trends can make trading strategies clearer and more in line with market trends.
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