Muhammad talha Hasha

世界中の市場が経済の不確実性を織り交ぜながら、安全資産への需要が高まっていることにより、今日もゴールドとシルバーの価格は堅調を維持しました。アジア、ヨーロッパ、北アメリカの投資家たちは貴金属に対して継続的な関心を示しており、ゴールドとシルバーは歴史的に高い水準に近い状態を保っています。
ゴールド市場の概要
金は、主要経済圏での金融政策の緩和が予想されるという見通しと、依然として続く地政学的リスクによって支えられ、堅調に取引されています。金利見通しがやや弱まっていることで、利回りのない資産である金を保有する機会コストが低下し、機関投資家および個人投資家が露出を維持する動きが続いています。

世界市場が最近の強い上昇を受けて調整局面に入ったため、ゴールド価格は今日も横ばい傾向でやや弱さを示しました。投資家のセンチメントは慎重で、利益確定が主要な取引セッション全体で上昇の勢いを制限しました。
ゴールド市場は主に米ドルの動き、債券利回り、マクロ経済見通しによって影響を受けました。短期トレーダーが一時的に引き下がりましたが、長期的なポジションは維持され、価格は高水準に保たれました。
📊 マーケット概要
アジア：買い手が高値付近での価格追跡を避け、慎重な取引でゴールドが始まりました。

金価格は今日も強さを保ちました。2026年最初の段階における世界的な不確実性と経済的な慎重さの中、投資家たちは依然として安全資産を求めており、昨年歴史的な上昇相場を記録した後、地政学的緊張、金利の低下見通し、および米ドルの弱体化によって支えられています。
市場参加者は、金利引き下げの期待が高まる中で、利子を生まない資産としての金の魅力が高まっているため、中央銀行の政策を注視しています。同時に、継続する地政学的リスクが不安定さに対するヘッジとしての金の役割を強化しており、国際市場での需要は堅調を保っています。

金価格は、地政学的リスクの予期しないエスカレーションが安全資産への需要を再燃させたため、アジアの早い取引中に上昇しました。この動きは、ニコラス・マドゥロ大統領を排除し、すでに脆弱な世界環境に新たな不確実性をもたらす米国の突然の軍事作戦に関する報告に続いています。
スポット金は約1.8%上昇し、1オンスあたり約4,410ドルとなり、短期的なテールリスクの迅速な再評価を反映しています。市場参加者は、伝統的なマクロ経済や金融政策の要因よりも地政学的不確実性を優先し、資本保全資産へのポジショニングをシフトさせているようです。

ドルが弱く、利下げの期待が高まる中、2026年のスタートで金価格が急上昇
金曜日に欧州市場で金価格が大幅に上昇し、2026年の最初の取引セッションを記録しました。米ドルが弱く、さらなる利下げの期待が投資家の金への需要を復活させました。
スポットゴールドは1.8%上昇し、1オンスあたり$4,387.09になりました。一方、米国の金先物は1.4%上昇し、$4,399.90になりました。市場は年末の休暇の後に再開しました。
金は2025年の最後の日々に記録的な高値から一時的に後退しましたが、新年の始まりに新たな買いが現れ、金融緩和に対する再びの楽観的な見方が支えとなりました。

Gold Futures Enter Cycle Transition After Exhaustion High
Gold futures are showing a clear cycle transition, following a textbook VC PMI exhaustion pattern. The recent rally peaked near 4584, a level that marked a cycle crest, where upside momentum began to fade despite higher prices.
This high aligned precisely with VC PMI resistance symmetry and Square of 9 harmonic timing, signaling growing downside risk. From a cycle perspective, price completed an upper rotational arc, a phase typically associated with trend fatigue and weakening buyer strength.
As momentum decelerated, Gold entered a mean reversion phase, suggesting that the market is now shifting away from aggressive upside expansion toward correction or consolidation. Such behavior is consistent with historical cycle transitions following exhaustion highs.
Unless a new structural base forms, upside continuation remains limited, with price likely to rotate lower or stabilize before the next directional move.

In 2025, prediction markets stopped acting like a sideshow and started behaving like a real financial category.

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream
What began as a niche experiment in forecasting elections and sports quietly evolved into a multibillion-dollar ecosystem touching Wall Street, media giants, professional sports, and crypto infrastructure.

From regulatory victories and courtroom battles to record volumes, blockbuster fundraises, and mainstream media integrations, prediction markets spent 2025 elbowing their way into the center of the conversation—and mostly winning the fight.

A Strong Start, With Lawyers in the Background
The year opened with momentum already in motion. Polymarket entered January averaging more than $1 billion in monthly trading volume, riding engagement that never faded after the 2024 election cycle. Kalshi, meanwhile, leaned harder into sports and economic markets while preparing for legal tests that would define its future.

Those tests arrived quickly. In January, Kalshi found itself back in court challenging federal restrictions on political event contracts, while state regulators sharpened their knives. The legal uncertainty did little to slow participation, but it ensured that prediction markets would spend much of 2025 proving they belonged.

Regulation Tightens—Then Starts to Blink
By February, regulators were paying closer attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission scheduled public discussions around event contracts, signaling that prediction markets were no longer flying under the radar. State-level scrutiny intensified, setting the stage for clashes that would unfold over the spring.

March delivered both innovation and confrontation. Blockchain-native protocol Myriad launched with an onchain, non-custodial model using stablecoins, reinforcing prediction markets’ growing overlap with crypto rails. At the same time, New Jersey regulators issued a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi, accusing it of operating unlawful gambling markets.

Kalshi responded the way it would all year: by suing back.

Prediction Markets Had Their Breakout Year in 2025 — and There Was No Going Back

Courtrooms, Clarity, and a Federal Green Light
April marked a turning point. A federal judge blocked New Jersey’s enforcement action, siding—at least temporarily—with Kalshi’s argument that federal commodities law preempts state gambling statutes. Days later, the CFTC dropped its appeal in Kalshi’s election-contract case, effectively leaving a pro-market ruling intact.

The message was unmistakable: prediction markets had found firmer footing at the federal level, even if states continued to resist. Trading activity reflected that shift almost immediately, with Kalshi posting hundreds of millions in volume tied to fast-resolving sports events.

Growth Accelerates as Legal Fog Lifts
By May, participation accelerated. Kalshi reported weekly volumes approaching $1 billion, a staggering jump from the prior year. Sports accounted for most activity, but economics, crypto, and political markets quietly gained traction beneath the headline numbers.

Industry-wide, the tone changed. Venture capital interest deepened, institutional observers began framing prediction markets as information tools rather than novelty bets, and whispers of partnerships with mainstream platforms grew louder.

Deals, Integrations, and Wall Street Curiosity
June brought confirmation. Polymarket revealed it had acquired a small CFTC-licensed exchange to facilitate a U.S. return, a strategic move that signaled long-term intent rather than regulatory brinkmanship. Kalshi, meanwhile, inked a distribution partnership with Robinhood, pushing prediction markets directly into a retail trading app used by millions.

The subtext was clear: prediction markets were no longer content living at the edges of the internet.

Summer Funding and the Push Toward the U.S.
Throughout the summer, capital flowed in. Polymarket raised additional funding while preparing for its U.S. relaunch, attracting backers spanning crypto-native funds and traditional venture firms. Kalshi ramped marketing and expanded categories, even turning live odds into subway ads—a subtle flex that would have seemed absurd a few years earlier.

Behind the scenes, lawmakers debated whether these markets could serve public forecasting functions. No laws changed, but the conversation itself marked progress.

The U.S. Door Reopens
September delivered one of the year’s defining moments: Polymarket regained approval to operate in the United States. The timing aligned neatly with major sports seasons and renewed political speculation, pushing combined weekly volume across leading platforms past $2 billion.

State battles continued, but user growth did not wait for unanimous permission.

October’s Capital Floodgates Open
October was the month when prediction markets went unmistakably big. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company in rarefied territory and cementing Wall Street’s interest in event-driven data.

Kalshi followed with a massive funding round of its own, pushing its valuation into fintech’s upper tier. At the same time, Google began integrating prediction market data into search and finance tools, ensuring millions would encounter probabilistic forecasts whether they asked for them or not.

November Sets Records Across the Board
November shattered expectations. Combined platform volumes reached historic highs, with industry-wide trading estimated at roughly $44 billion for the year. Kalshi and Polymarket each cleared multibillion-dollar monthly totals, while new competitors crossed billion-dollar weekly thresholds.

Major media outlets followed suit. Yahoo Finance integrated prediction market data directly into its pages, while CNN prepared on-air odds segments. Sports partnerships expanded, including high-profile deals with the NHL and UFC, pushing prediction markets into live broadcasts.

Prediction Markets Had Their Breakout Year in 2025 — and There Was No Going Back

December Brings Expansion—and Competition
By December, prediction markets were no longer alone. Draftkings launched a federally compliant prediction app in dozens of states, validating the regulatory path pioneered earlier in the year. A newly launched competitor, Myriad, integrated directly into a major crypto wallet, bringing event trading into a native Web3 environment.

The year closed with optimism, but not without tension. State-level resistance persisted, and lawsuits lingered. Still, participation broadened beyond sports, with economics, tech, and politics showing the fastest growth rates.

A New Asset Class Finds Its Place$BTC
By year’s end, prediction markets looked less like a curiosity and more like an emerging asset class. They blended regulated exchanges, blockchain settlement, real-time data, and crowd-based forecasting into something difficult to ignore—and increasingly difficult to stop.

If 2025 proved anything, it’s that prediction markets are done asking whether they belong. The only remaining question is how far they push next.$BTC

“Bitcoin will one day overtake gold.” — President Trump
What once sounded impossible is now unfolding.
Digital scarcity vs. physical metal.$BTC
History is being written.
$BTC #GOLD

$BNB just proved it once again.

Price spent time cooling off and building a solid base. No panic, no forced moves. And the moment buyers stepped back in, the recovery started — clean, controlled, and healthy.

That bounce from the lower zone clearly shows strong buyer interest. Those who stayed calm instead of reacting emotionally are already seeing the reward.

The chart still looks strong: • Higher lows are forming
• Momentum is gradually rebuilding
• Buyers remain active after a healthy pullback

As long as $BNB holds above its key support zone, the upside remains open.

Trade View – Bullish structure intact
– Buyers in control
– Further upside likely if momentum continues

Sometimes the market needs time.
But when the move comes — it pays big.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined$BNB
Let the chart do the work. 📈

ビットコインのトレーダーは、連邦準備制度の理事スティーブン・ミランのコメントを受けて、市場が金利の期待を再考する中、木曜日の米国CPI発表を前に警戒を強めています。$BTC
ミランは、インフレがヘッドラインデータが示唆するよりも連邦準備制度の2%目標に近いと主張し、残る圧力の多くは実需ではなく統計的歪みに起因していると述べました。CME FedWatch Toolによると、市場は現在、2026年1月の連邦準備制度の会合で金利が変更されない確率を75.6%と見込んでおり、長期的な金利見通しが緩やかになることを強化しています。$BTC

Ethereum is stuck! 😩 We're seeing some serious volatility right now, trapped between $3,051 and $3,272, and there's no clear direction.$ETH

​The good news? The bulls are holding the line at $3,000. If we can punch through and stay above $3,200, I'm eyeing a rally toward $3,400 (especially if the institutions jump in).$ETH

​The bad news? A dip below that $3,000 floor could send ETH sliding back toward $2,800. This Fed/macro uncertainty combined with low liquidity is definitely fueling the downside risk. Stay safe out there!

​#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoMarket #Write2Earn #cryptofirst

​$STG successfully broke out to 0.1395 and has since settled near the 0.131 level.

​The current pullback remains shallow relative to the initial breakout leg.
​Key Insight: As long as the price respects the 0.128 area, this appears to be a phase of consolidation, rather than a sign of underlying weakness.$STG