Nicolas de Luusc
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📅 米国の主要な経済および連邦イベント (ET) — 来週の展望
今週は、FOMCの決定を主なイベントとして、マクロの触媒が詰まっています。
月曜日 (1月 26日)
🕣 午前 8:30 – 耐久財受注 (11月、遅延)
前回の弱さから+4.5%の反発が予想されています。
製造業の勢いに関する重要な洞察 (輸送を除くのを注視)。
火曜日 (1月 27日)
🕙 午前 10:00 – 消費者信頼感 (1月)
予測は約90.0で、消費者の感情を測る重要な指標です。
水曜日 (1月 28日) — 大きな日
🕑 午後 2:00 – FOMC金利決定
🕝 午後 2:30 – パウエル記者会見
市場は金利引き下げ、インフレ見通し、および政策リスクに関するシグナルに注目しています。
木曜日 (1月 29日)
🕣 午前 8:30 – 初回失業保険申請 (予想 ~209k)
🕣 貿易収支 (11月、遅延)
🕣 生産性および単位労働コスト (Q3 修正)
🕙 工場受注および卸売在庫 (遅延)
金曜日 (1月 30日)
🕣 午前 8:30 – PPI (12月)
コアおよび前年比PPIはインフレ期待にとって重要です。
🕤 午前 9:45 – シカゴPMI (1月)
🎤 FRBのスピーカー: ムサレム (午後 1:30) および副議長ボウマン (午後 5:00)$BTC
今週は、FOMCの決定を主なイベントとして、マクロの触媒が詰まっています。
月曜日 (1月 26日)
🕣 午前 8:30 – 耐久財受注 (11月、遅延)
前回の弱さから+4.5%の反発が予想されています。
製造業の勢いに関する重要な洞察 (輸送を除くのを注視)。
火曜日 (1月 27日)
🕙 午前 10:00 – 消費者信頼感 (1月)
予測は約90.0で、消費者の感情を測る重要な指標です。
水曜日 (1月 28日) — 大きな日
🕑 午後 2:00 – FOMC金利決定
🕝 午後 2:30 – パウエル記者会見
市場は金利引き下げ、インフレ見通し、および政策リスクに関するシグナルに注目しています。
木曜日 (1月 29日)
🕣 午前 8:30 – 初回失業保険申請 (予想 ~209k)
🕣 貿易収支 (11月、遅延)
🕣 生産性および単位労働コスト (Q3 修正)
🕙 工場受注および卸売在庫 (遅延)
金曜日 (1月 30日)
🕣 午前 8:30 – PPI (12月)
コアおよび前年比PPIはインフレ期待にとって重要です。
🕤 午前 9:45 – シカゴPMI (1月)
🎤 FRBのスピーカー: ムサレム (午後 1:30) および副議長ボウマン (午後 5:00)$BTC
Markets Brace for Fed Decision & Powell’s Signal
The Fed’s first policy decision of 2026 will be released at 2:00 PM ET (Wednesday), with expectations that the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 99% probability of no rate change, backed by over $582M in bets, reflecting near-total consensus.
This stability is supported by recent data:
Unemployment around 4.2%Cooling inflationResilient economic growth
As a result, market focus shifts to Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
This marks Powell’s first appearance since recent DOJ subpoena-related developments, amid rising concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of a new Fed Chair nomination in May.
Powell’s tone and guidance could significantly shape rate-cut expectations and drive volatility across risk assets, including crypto.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 99% probability of no rate change, backed by over $582M in bets, reflecting near-total consensus.
This stability is supported by recent data:
Unemployment around 4.2%Cooling inflationResilient economic growth
As a result, market focus shifts to Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
This marks Powell’s first appearance since recent DOJ subpoena-related developments, amid rising concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of a new Fed Chair nomination in May.
Powell’s tone and guidance could significantly shape rate-cut expectations and drive volatility across risk assets, including crypto.
Silver ETF Volume Just Went Parabolic
The silver#TokenizedSilverSurge $ market just printed a historic signal.
The world’s largest silver ETF, $SLV, recorded $40B in single-day trading volume — the highest ever, not only for silver but across all assets.
That’s:
15× its average daily volume3× the previous peak during the 2011 silver bull market
For comparison:
$SPY: ~$25B$QQQ: ~$17B$NVDA / $TSLA: ~$16B each
Even leveraged bets are surging, with $AGQ (2× silver ETF) seeing $8B in one day.
This isn’t a normal rally.
It’s an extreme positioning event — volatility risk is rising fast.
The world’s largest silver ETF, $SLV, recorded $40B in single-day trading volume — the highest ever, not only for silver but across all assets.
That’s:
15× its average daily volume3× the previous peak during the 2011 silver bull market
For comparison:
$SPY: ~$25B$QQQ: ~$17B$NVDA / $TSLA: ~$16B each
Even leveraged bets are surging, with $AGQ (2× silver ETF) seeing $8B in one day.
This isn’t a normal rally.
It’s an extreme positioning event — volatility risk is rising fast.
Để đánh giá chính xác hơn chênh lệch thực sự giữa giá Bạc giao ngay trên Sàn giao dịch vàng Thượng Hải và London, cần phải điều chỉnh theo thuế VAT 13% của Trung Quốc, áp dụng cho việc giao hàng vật chất.
Sau khi loại bỏ thành phần thuế này, mức chênh lệch giá giữa SGE và London đã đạt đỉnh điểm vào hôm qua ở mức hơn 5% trước khi giảm xuống khoảng 1% vào hôm nay.
Bản thân thuế VAT không phải là mới ( mức thuế 13% hiện tại đã được áp dụng từ năm 2019 ) nhưng vì nó tỷ lệ thuận với giá cả, nên nó đã vô tình làm tăng chênh lệch giá giữa Thượng Hải và London khi giá Bạc tăng vọt lên mức cao hơn nhiều.
Sau khi loại bỏ thành phần thuế này, mức chênh lệch giá giữa SGE và London đã đạt đỉnh điểm vào hôm qua ở mức hơn 5% trước khi giảm xuống khoảng 1% vào hôm nay.
Bản thân thuế VAT không phải là mới ( mức thuế 13% hiện tại đã được áp dụng từ năm 2019 ) nhưng vì nó tỷ lệ thuận với giá cả, nên nó đã vô tình làm tăng chênh lệch giá giữa Thượng Hải và London khi giá Bạc tăng vọt lên mức cao hơn nhiều.
Trump Expands Global Tariff Threats — Trade Warfare Escalates
Beyond South Korea, President Donald Trump is broadening his tariff strategy as leverage in global trade:
He’s warned that the U.S. could hit Canada with 100% tariffs if Ottawa signs a trade deal with China, arguing such a deal would let Beijing “evade U.S. tariffs” and harm Canadian sovereignty.
Trump’s administration has also used emergency tariffs targeting countries that import Venezuelan oil, effectively pulling others into U.S. trade pressure.
These threats are part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade measures aimed at pressuring allies and rivals alike.
China, for its part, has been quiet publicly, likely watching to see if these tariff threats are actually enforced before escalating retaliations.
What This Means for Markets & Crypto
Macro volatility is rising.
Broader trade pressure increases uncertainty in global supply chains and capital flows, which tends to:
🔹 Spike risk-off moves in equities and FX
🔹 Weaken risk appetite short-term
🔹 Potentially support BTC as a macro hedge if geopolitical risk intensifies
But heightened tariff fears can also trigger sharp swings and liquidity rotation — meaning crypto may chop before trending.
He’s warned that the U.S. could hit Canada with 100% tariffs if Ottawa signs a trade deal with China, arguing such a deal would let Beijing “evade U.S. tariffs” and harm Canadian sovereignty.
Trump’s administration has also used emergency tariffs targeting countries that import Venezuelan oil, effectively pulling others into U.S. trade pressure.
These threats are part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade measures aimed at pressuring allies and rivals alike.
China, for its part, has been quiet publicly, likely watching to see if these tariff threats are actually enforced before escalating retaliations.
What This Means for Markets & Crypto
Macro volatility is rising.
Broader trade pressure increases uncertainty in global supply chains and capital flows, which tends to:
🔹 Spike risk-off moves in equities and FX
🔹 Weaken risk appetite short-term
🔹 Potentially support BTC as a macro hedge if geopolitical risk intensifies
But heightened tariff fears can also trigger sharp swings and liquidity rotation — meaning crypto may chop before trending.
トランプが韓国に25%の関税を脅かす — マクロリスクが戻る
ドナルド・トランプ大統領は、昨年の貿易協定の実施の遅れを理由に、米国が韓国製品に最大25%の関税を課す可能性があると警告しました。
この脅威は、主要な同盟国間の貿易緊張リスクを再燃させ、マーケットは注目しています。
📉 これは暗号通貨にとって何を意味するのか
貿易緊張の高まりは、リスク資産全体のボラティリティを高める傾向があります。
短期的には、マーケットが防御的になると、暗号通貨はリスクオフの反応を見るかもしれません。
中期的には、持続的な貿易摩擦がUSDのナラティブに圧力をかけ、マクロヘッジとしてBTCを支援する可能性があります。
この脅威は、主要な同盟国間の貿易緊張リスクを再燃させ、マーケットは注目しています。
📉 これは暗号通貨にとって何を意味するのか
貿易緊張の高まりは、リスク資産全体のボラティリティを高める傾向があります。
短期的には、マーケットが防御的になると、暗号通貨はリスクオフの反応を見るかもしれません。
中期的には、持続的な貿易摩擦がUSDのナラティブに圧力をかけ、マクロヘッジとしてBTCを支援する可能性があります。
BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF as Institutions Shift Strategy
BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF — Institutions Are Evolving
BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Income ETF, signaling a clear shift in institutional strategy: from pure price exposure to yield-generating crypto products.
The ETF aims to combine BTC exposure with option income, allowing investors to earn returns even in sideways markets. This could open the door for more conservative institutional capital to enter crypto.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index is at a 4-month low, easing macro pressure on risk assets.
📌 Bottom line:
If approved, income-focused BTC products could create structural demand, not just speculative inflows — potentially supporting the next leg of a BTC rally.
BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Income ETF, signaling a clear shift in institutional strategy: from pure price exposure to yield-generating crypto products.
The ETF aims to combine BTC exposure with option income, allowing investors to earn returns even in sideways markets. This could open the door for more conservative institutional capital to enter crypto.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index is at a 4-month low, easing macro pressure on risk assets.
📌 Bottom line:
If approved, income-focused BTC products could create structural demand, not just speculative inflows — potentially supporting the next leg of a BTC rally.
US Shutdown
Why a U.S. Shutdown Is a Bigger Market Risk Than It Looks
The biggest risk from a potential government shutdown isn’t politics —
it’s missing data.
A prolonged budget stalemate could disrupt or delay key economic releases, including:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 6)CPI (Feb 11)
For an already divided FOMC, less data means less confidence.
And for a Fed still hesitant to ease, data uncertainty becomes an excuse to stay on hold.
📌 Powell’s window for another rate cut was already narrow.
A shutdown could close it entirely.
🧠 Bottom line:
Markets need clarity — and right now, clarity is at risk.
Political deadlock may end up shaping Fed expectations and risk sentiment more than the data itself.
The biggest risk from a potential government shutdown isn’t politics —
it’s missing data.
A prolonged budget stalemate could disrupt or delay key economic releases, including:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 6)CPI (Feb 11)
For an already divided FOMC, less data means less confidence.
And for a Fed still hesitant to ease, data uncertainty becomes an excuse to stay on hold.
📌 Powell’s window for another rate cut was already narrow.
A shutdown could close it entirely.
🧠 Bottom line:
Markets need clarity — and right now, clarity is at risk.
Political deadlock may end up shaping Fed expectations and risk sentiment more than the data itself.
🚨 U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Jumps to 80% in Just 72 Hours
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged from 10% to nearly 80%, following recent political and social tensions linked to the Minneapolis incident.
Despite the House passing the remaining FY2026 bills, Senate Democrats are blocking progress over homeland security provisions and the lack of CBP/ICE policy reforms — preventing the bill from reaching the required 60-vote threshold before Friday’s deadline.
📌 This is no longer background political noise.
Markets are now forced to price in real shutdown risk.
$BTC
$BNB
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged from 10% to nearly 80%, following recent political and social tensions linked to the Minneapolis incident.
Despite the House passing the remaining FY2026 bills, Senate Democrats are blocking progress over homeland security provisions and the lack of CBP/ICE policy reforms — preventing the bill from reaching the required 60-vote threshold before Friday’s deadline.
📌 This is no longer background political noise.
Markets are now forced to price in real shutdown risk.
$BTC
$BNB
Notably, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to its lowest level since the early 2000s.
This ongoing de-dollarization trend is driving central banks and large institutions to increase gold holdings, creating a long-term structural support for precious metal prices.
📌 This is less about short-term moves — and more about strategic reserve reallocation.$BTC
This ongoing de-dollarization trend is driving central banks and large institutions to increase gold holdings, creating a long-term structural support for precious metal prices.
📌 This is less about short-term moves — and more about strategic reserve reallocation.$BTC
🌍 Global Trade Is Quietly Shifting
India is reportedly finalizing a new trade agreement with the EU, cutting auto import tariffs from 110% to 40%, with a long-term target of 10%.
At the same time:
India is deepening trade ties with the EU
Canada is moving closer to trade agreements with China
This isn’t isolated news.
It points to a broader trend: global trade flows are being restructured, often outside the traditional US-centric framework.
📌 The global trade map is changing — and markets are starting to notice
India is reportedly finalizing a new trade agreement with the EU, cutting auto import tariffs from 110% to 40%, with a long-term target of 10%.
At the same time:
India is deepening trade ties with the EU
Canada is moving closer to trade agreements with China
This isn’t isolated news.
It points to a broader trend: global trade flows are being restructured, often outside the traditional US-centric framework.
📌 The global trade map is changing — and markets are starting to notice
🚀 ETF inflows or COMEX speculators aren’t driving silver’s parabolic surge toward $110.
Holdings in silver ETFs and speculative positions on COMEX are still declining, not rising.
This suggests the rally is not fuelled by leveraged bets or retail hype but by deeper structural demand and physical market dynamics.
📌 In other words, this move looks stronger — and potentially more durable — than a typical speculative spike.
$$$$BTC
Holdings in silver ETFs and speculative positions on COMEX are still declining, not rising.
This suggests the rally is not fuelled by leveraged bets or retail hype but by deeper structural demand and physical market dynamics.
📌 In other words, this move looks stronger — and potentially more durable — than a typical speculative spike.
$$$$BTC
💵 USD Weakens — The Commodity Cycle Is Coming Back
Last week may have looked like multiple separate stories, but in reality, it was one clear picture of capital rotation.
Gold pushing toward 5,000 and silver breaking 100 signal a strong preference for hard assets.
At the same time, the USD just posted its worst week in nine months.
Historically, a weaker dollar tends to trigger:
A rebound in industrial metals
A strong move in energy stocks
Renewed capital flows into emerging markets, driven by valuation and currency effects
The bigger picture:
The USD may be entering a prolonged downtrend
Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market
Emerging markets look cheap relative to the US and can move fast when risk appetite shifts
📌 This isn’t noise — it’s a shift in global money flow.
Last week may have looked like multiple separate stories, but in reality, it was one clear picture of capital rotation.
Gold pushing toward 5,000 and silver breaking 100 signal a strong preference for hard assets.
At the same time, the USD just posted its worst week in nine months.
Historically, a weaker dollar tends to trigger:
A rebound in industrial metals
A strong move in energy stocks
Renewed capital flows into emerging markets, driven by valuation and currency effects
The bigger picture:
The USD may be entering a prolonged downtrend
Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market
Emerging markets look cheap relative to the US and can move fast when risk appetite shifts
📌 This isn’t noise — it’s a shift in global money flow.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) This incident strengthens, not weakens, BTC’s core principle: Not your keys, not your coins. The protocol didn’t fail — people did . Long-term narrative remains intact.
#southkoreaseizedbtcloss
🚨 韓国が押収したビットコインで4800万ドルを失った — そう、政府が管理するBTC
韓国当局は、フィッシング関連の事件により、押収したビットコインの約4800万ドル相当へのアクセスを失ったと報じられています。
それを考えてみてください。
これは取引所へのハッキングではありませんでした。
これは小売のパニックではありませんでした。
これはすでに政府によって押収され保管されていたビットコイン — 失われたのです。
物語はまだ展開中ですが、すでに明らかなことがあります：
暗号は悪い保管を許しません — あなたが誰であろうと。
市場は短期的には感情的に反応するかもしれませんが、この出来事は価格以上の深い意味を持っています。
それは、コントロール、責任、そしてセキュリティに関することです。
調査が続く中、さらなる詳細が期待されています。
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🚨 韓国が押収したビットコインで4800万ドルを失った — そう、政府が管理するBTC
韓国当局は、フィッシング関連の事件により、押収したビットコインの約4800万ドル相当へのアクセスを失ったと報じられています。
それを考えてみてください。
これは取引所へのハッキングではありませんでした。
これは小売のパニックではありませんでした。
これはすでに政府によって押収され保管されていたビットコイン — 失われたのです。
物語はまだ展開中ですが、すでに明らかなことがあります：
暗号は悪い保管を許しません — あなたが誰であろうと。
市場は短期的には感情的に反応するかもしれませんが、この出来事は価格以上の深い意味を持っています。
それは、コントロール、責任、そしてセキュリティに関することです。
調査が続く中、さらなる詳細が期待されています。
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
#southkoreaseizedbtcloss
🚨 韓国が押収したビットコインで4800万ドルを失った — そう、政府が管理するBTC
韓国当局は、フィッシング関連の事件により、押収したビットコインの約4800万ドル相当へのアクセスを失ったと報じられています。
それを考えてみてください。
これは取引所へのハッキングではありませんでした。
これは小売のパニックではありませんでした。
これはすでに政府によって押収され保管されていたビットコイン — 失われたのです。
物語はまだ展開中ですが、すでに明らかなことがあります：
暗号は悪い保管を許しません — あなたが誰であろうと。
市場は短期的には感情的に反応するかもしれませんが、この出来事は価格以上の深い意味を持っています。
それは、コントロール、責任、そしてセキュリティに関することです。
調査が続く中、さらなる詳細が期待されています。
$BTC
🚨 韓国が押収したビットコインで4800万ドルを失った — そう、政府が管理するBTC
韓国当局は、フィッシング関連の事件により、押収したビットコインの約4800万ドル相当へのアクセスを失ったと報じられています。
それを考えてみてください。
これは取引所へのハッキングではありませんでした。
これは小売のパニックではありませんでした。
これはすでに政府によって押収され保管されていたビットコイン — 失われたのです。
物語はまだ展開中ですが、すでに明らかなことがあります：
暗号は悪い保管を許しません — あなたが誰であろうと。
市場は短期的には感情的に反応するかもしれませんが、この出来事は価格以上の深い意味を持っています。
それは、コントロール、責任、そしてセキュリティに関することです。
調査が続く中、さらなる詳細が期待されています。
$BTC
Plan B if $BTC won’t work out
🚨 BTC at a Crossroad — This Week’s US Data Will Decide the Next Move
Bitcoin is currently consolidating near key levels, and the next short-term direction will likely be driven not by narratives, but by US macro data.
📊 Key US Economic Data (Early January)
This week’s focus:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ADP Employment
JOLTS Job Openings
Initial Jobless Claims
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan 9)
How the market may react:
📉 Weaker data (cooling jobs, soft PMI)
→ Higher odds of Fed rate cuts
→ Bullish for BTC & risk assets
📈 Stronger data
→ Fed stays hawkish
→ BTC could see a short-term pullback
$BTC
Bitcoin is currently consolidating near key levels, and the next short-term direction will likely be driven not by narratives, but by US macro data.
📊 Key US Economic Data (Early January)
This week’s focus:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ADP Employment
JOLTS Job Openings
Initial Jobless Claims
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan 9)
How the market may react:
📉 Weaker data (cooling jobs, soft PMI)
→ Higher odds of Fed rate cuts
→ Bullish for BTC & risk assets
📈 Stronger data
→ Fed stays hawkish
→ BTC could see a short-term pullback
$BTC
🚨 今週の米国経済データ: BTC ＆ 暗号通貨のための3つの主要要因
全球市場は、今週の米国の3つの主要な経済報告に注目しており、これは連邦準備制度の金利期待を形成し、ビットコインおよび広範な暗号市場のボラティリティを引き起こす可能性があります。
🔹 NFP ＆ 失業
弱い労働データ → 連邦準備制度の金利引き下げの可能性が高まる → 暗号通貨にとって強気。
🔹 CPI ＆ コアCPI（インフレ）
インフレの冷却 → 連邦準備制度への圧力の低下 → BTCおよびリスク資産に対するポジティブな追い風。
🔹 小売売上高 / PMI
市場は「ソフトランディング」を望んでいます。
適度な冷却は暗号通貨を支持; あまりにも弱いとリセッションのリスクが高まります。
📌 結論:
制御されたインフレを伴う米国経済の減速 = 暗号通貨にとっての上向きの勢い。
#FOMCWatch #BTC
全球市場は、今週の米国の3つの主要な経済報告に注目しており、これは連邦準備制度の金利期待を形成し、ビットコインおよび広範な暗号市場のボラティリティを引き起こす可能性があります。
🔹 NFP ＆ 失業
弱い労働データ → 連邦準備制度の金利引き下げの可能性が高まる → 暗号通貨にとって強気。
🔹 CPI ＆ コアCPI（インフレ）
インフレの冷却 → 連邦準備制度への圧力の低下 → BTCおよびリスク資産に対するポジティブな追い風。
🔹 小売売上高 / PMI
市場は「ソフトランディング」を望んでいます。
適度な冷却は暗号通貨を支持; あまりにも弱いとリセッションのリスクが高まります。
📌 結論:
制御されたインフレを伴う米国経済の減速 = 暗号通貨にとっての上向きの勢い。
#FOMCWatch #BTC
U.S. Stocks: Weak Rebound After Thanksgiving, Fed Pause Concerns
U.S. markets reopened on December 1 after the Thanksgiving break with a tech-led sell-off. The Nasdaq dropped 2–3% as Nvidia fell 4% and Tesla 5%. While the S&P 500 and Dow gained 1–2% last week, November still closed down 4–6% as the 10-year yield jumped to 4.62%.
Mixed economic data — Consumer Confidence at 110 and Q3 GDP at +2.8% — pushed expectations for a December Fed rate cut down from 100% to 85%. Investors also remain cautious about potential inflation pressure from Trump’s tariff plans.
Key data this week (S&P Global):
• Dec 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Dec 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast +200k)
• Dec 4: Fed Minutes
Nasdaq may retest the 17,000 level if yields rise above 4.7%.
Market sentiment softened globally, with Japan leading the sell-off. Even Vistra (energy) fell despite strong Q2 earnings, partly due to volatility tied to crypto markets
U.S. markets reopened on December 1 after the Thanksgiving break with a tech-led sell-off. The Nasdaq dropped 2–3% as Nvidia fell 4% and Tesla 5%. While the S&P 500 and Dow gained 1–2% last week, November still closed down 4–6% as the 10-year yield jumped to 4.62%.
Mixed economic data — Consumer Confidence at 110 and Q3 GDP at +2.8% — pushed expectations for a December Fed rate cut down from 100% to 85%. Investors also remain cautious about potential inflation pressure from Trump’s tariff plans.
Key data this week (S&P Global):
• Dec 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Dec 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast +200k)
• Dec 4: Fed Minutes
Nasdaq may retest the 17,000 level if yields rise above 4.7%.
Market sentiment softened globally, with Japan leading the sell-off. Even Vistra (energy) fell despite strong Q2 earnings, partly due to volatility tied to crypto markets
CPI Forecast for August 12, 2025 CPI (YoY): Expected at 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June. Core CPI (YoY): Expected at 3.1%, up from 2.9%. Key Drivers: Trump’s tariffs (145% on China, 10-41% globally), rising housing and food costs, offset slightly by lower energy prices.
Bitcoin: Below 2.8%: Boosts expectations for Fed rate cuts, weakens USD, likely pushing BTC past $122,838 toward $130,000. Above 2.8%: Reduces rate cut odds, strengthens USD, potentially dropping BTC to $115,000-$118,000. Current BTC: ~$122,000, near all-time high, highly sensitive to CPI outcome.
Bitcoin: Below 2.8%: Boosts expectations for Fed rate cuts, weakens USD, likely pushing BTC past $122,838 toward $130,000. Above 2.8%: Reduces rate cut odds, strengthens USD, potentially dropping BTC to $115,000-$118,000. Current BTC: ~$122,000, near all-time high, highly sensitive to CPI outcome.
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