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Bitcoin ($BTC C) is currently trading around $USDC 68,000 as the market reacts to recent option expiries. Analysts note that with $2Z .5 billion in BTC options expiring, price movements may face short-term volatility, especially around the $74,#000 “max pain” level.
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin is entering deep value territory, signaling potential buying opportunities for long-term investors. Traders should stay cautious, as the crypto market remains sensitive to large option expiries and short-term swings.
📊 Tip: Monitor key support and resistance levels before making any trading decisions.
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Bitcoin’s recent price drop has made many traders panic, but from my point of view, the risk-reward profile has clearly shifted after this selloff.
According to on-chain data analysis shared by James “Checkmate” Check (former lead researcher at Glassnode and author of Check On Chain) in an interview on the What Bitcoin Did, Bitcoin has entered what can be considered “deep value” territory across several mean-reversion models. When price moved into these recent zones, capitulation-style losses spiked to levels similar to the 2022 cycle bottom.
If Bitcoin is not going to zero (which I personally don’t believe), then statistically the setup now looks asymmetric — meaning downside risk is limited compared to potential upside. This is the kind of market phase where smart participants stay alert instead of losing focus.

Rather than blaming a single forced seller, the focus should be on overall market structure. Based on probabilistic analysis, there is now more than a 50% chance — possibly around 60% — that a meaningful bottom has already formed. However, the probability of Bitcoin making a new all-time high this year seems low unless we see a major macroeconomic shift or a strong market catalyst.
Regarding ETFs, billions in outflows were seen during the decline. But this appears more like positioning unwinds and basis-trade adjustments (linked with CME open interest) rather than structural weakness. At one point, nearly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, yet ETF assets under management only declined in the mid-single digits — which shows resilience rather than collapse.

One important point: relying too much on the four-year halving cycle as a timing strategy may create unnecessary bias. Markets evolve, and each cycle has different dynamics.
In my view, this phase is less about fear and more about opportunity — but only for those who understand risk management.

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