BTC Daily Update — Fed Hiked, Bitcoin Is Still Losing Ground
Yesterday’s Fed decision did nothing to improve Bitcoin’s structure.
The Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% — its first hike in three years and the bigger message was the guidance. 16 of 18 policymakers still see at least one more hike this year.
That is a hawkish backdrop, not the easier liquidity environment Bitcoin bulls would have wanted.
Now back to the chart.
Bitcoin has already lost the 78.2k weekly orderzone and is trading around 76.5k.
The next level I’m watching is 75k.
If 75k holds, then Bitcoin has room to bounce back toward 78.2k. That would be the first area bulls need to reclaim before I start looking back toward 80.4k and the daily orderzone around 81.7k.
But if 75k breaks, then the next support area is around 73k to 73.5k.
Lose that and the 0.618 Fib around 69.5k becomes the next major level on my roadmap.
Momentum is still weak as well, so I’m not seeing anything yet that makes me want to ignore those lower levels.
And we are not finished with macro this week.
The BOJ decision is tomorrow, with markets expecting another hike to around 1.25% and further tightening still on the table. That gives Bitcoin another potential volatility event almost immediately after the Fed.
Key levels I’m watching:
• Current area: 76.5k • Immediate support: 75k • Next support: 73k to 73.5k • Major downside level: 69.5k • Weekly reclaim: 78.2k • Next upside level: 80.4k • Daily orderzone: 81.7k
For me, the roadmap is still straightforward.
Hold 75k and Bitcoin gets another chance to reclaim the range.
Lose it, and 73k becomes the next test.
Lose that, and 69.5k is where my attention goes next.
Technical outlook: Arbitrum rally eyes further upside
Arbitrum continues its steady upward rise for the fourth consecutive day, with gains totaling over 70% so far this week. ARB retains a clear bullish near-term bias above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $0.1224, $0.1104, and $0.1236, respectively.
The advance is now pressing into the upper end of the Fibonacci range from $0.2305 to $0.0705, with overhead supply emerging just below the Fibonacci cycle high at the 100% retracement level of $0.2305. A confirmed breakout above this level could target the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $0.3181.
Momentum remains constructive, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to 78, flagging overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1788, ahead of a deeper corrective floor at the 50% retracement level at $0.1274. $ARB #ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding
Clarity Act failure may hamper U.S. crypto as industry seeks legal clarity elsewhere
The U.S. Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act on Tuesday leaves the crypto industry in the world's largest economy without an overarching federal framework and with the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shrouded in ambiguity. “The true losers are the American public and the domestic tech ecosystem,” said Stefan Muehlbauer, head of U.S. government affairs at blockchain security firm CertiK. The winners are overseas crypto hubs, grey-market operators and international jurisdictions like Asia and Europe that are rapidly expanding their market share under clear, established rules, he said.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding
AI Helps Hackers Open a New Front in Crypto’s Cybercrime Wave
Open-source artificial intelligence is making it easier for hackers to hide malicious code on blockchains, opening a new front in a crypto industry already grappling with rising cybercrime.
Instances of malware instructions written into on-chain transactions and smart contracts are up 440% in less than a year, averaging 11 cases per day, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in a report published on Thursday. Such cases averaged two per day prior to the release in the middle of last year of powerful Chinese open-source AI models with no restrictions on generating malicious code, according to the report. A malware attack uses malicious software planted on a computer or network to steal information, passwords or funds. In the attacks documented by the report, hackers use a blockchain to leave instructions for that software, telling it where to send information, a technique known as "blockchain dead drop". This can make an attack harder to stop because information recorded on a blockchain cannot be easily removed. State-backed groups — including those linked to North Korea and Iran — now account for the majority of this activity, the report said. The findings add to evidence of generative AI contributing to a boom in cyber threats, by spotting more software vulnerabilities and allowing cybercriminals to carry out more attacks. In crypto, the number of hacks rose roughly 150% to 207 in the first half of the year, according to blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs. Blockchains are typically not involved in the initial infection of a machine, which often happens through conventional means such as supply-chain attacks or malicious downloads, Eric Jardine, head of research at Chainalysis, said in response to questions over email. The firm has not tracked how many attacks were successful, or how much money was lost. Hiding malware on a blockchain is not new, Chainalysis said, but powerful new open-source AI models are allowing hackers to carry out attacks on a larger scale, while growing involvement by state actors is making them more sophisticated. Worsening the threat, open-source AI models can be run independently, allowing hackers to modify them or remove safeguards against cybercrime. "This gives malicious developers greater control over the model and more privacy," said Vitaly Kamluk, founder of cybersecurity consultancy TitanHex. By contrast, companies such as OpenAI and Alphabet Inc.'s Google can block access to their AI services when they detect abuse. The transparency of blockchains cuts both ways, though. Every update attackers post is permanently recorded, letting investigators map their infrastructure and connect campaigns that would otherwise look unrelated, according to Chainalysis.#USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K #ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding
Why Banks Suddenly Want Stablecoins, and Why It May Matter for You For most of their first decade, stablecoins lived inside crypto, sitting on exchanges as dry powder between trades. Supply rose from $27 billion at the end of 2020 to more than $300 billion today.
A significant portion of that growth now occurs outside the order book. Cross-border flows into the US alone total nearly $127 billion a month, and businesses settled $226 billion in B2B payments in stablecoins last year, according to Artemis Analytics.
The expansion has caught the attention of the institutions it threatened. Banking groups pressed Congress to stop crypto firms from paying rewards on stablecoin balances, arguing that a token paying interest is a deposit in disguise.
The lobbying has not deterred new entrants. Visa, BlackRock, Google, and DoorDash have lined up behind Open USD, a stablecoin set to launch this year, in a market that Tether and Circle still dominate.
So banks have begun asking a different question: whether they need a coin of their own, if only to defend the ground they already hold.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding $NVDA.US
Visa built the "operating system" for banks (VSP) In July, Visa introduced the Visa Stablecoin Platform (VSP). Think of it as a plug-and-play stablecoin toolkit for traditional banks and fintechs.
Instead of traditional institutions sweating over managing private keys, setting up multi-sig wallets, or figuring out how to mint and burn tokens, Visa handed them a slick "Wallet-as-a-Service." Starting with Open USD, an upcoming token, Visa will also support the popular USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) coin later this year. Banks can now hold, move, and settle stablecoins using the same enterprise-grade security tools they're already comfortable with. It's in beta testing for now, pending the Open USD launch.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding $AAPL.US
Solana transactions just got more than 3 times bigger, giving an edge over Ethereum
Solana has more than tripled the amount of data that can fit inside a transaction, giving developers room for more complex trades, company-wallet approvals and privacy applications.
The network's new Transaction V1 format went live Tuesday at approximately 01:00 UTC, according to the Solana Foundation. It raises the maximum amount of data a single transaction can carry to 4,096 bytes from 1,232 bytes.
It could help Solana sharpen its edge over rival networks such as Ethereum. While Solana has always been faster and cheaper, it previously fell behind in one key area: its transactions were strictly hard-capped at 1,232 bytes.
Ethereum, by contrast, has no rigid protocol size limit, allowing developers to execute massive,>
That became restrictive for company wallets where several people may need to approve a payment, as well as for zero-knowledge proofs, which let applications verify information without revealing the underlying data. Both are among the use cases identified in the upgrade's design proposal.#FedHikeOddsRiseTo89% $SOL
Bitcoin Is Holding Firm, Ethereum Is Pulling In Money: Here’s What Crypto Positioning Shows
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $76,700 after the latest inflation data before recovering toward $78,000. According to QCP Capital, this “contained” reaction is a sign that markets have largely absorbed the prospect of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
The firm explained that $BTC ’s technical setup remains constructive at current levels, although conviction is still dependent on the broader market response to this week’s events.
Two Very Different Bets
Bitcoin is trading above a major support zone at $75,000 to $76,000 while resistance stands at $80,000 to $82,000. Ethereum is showing a significantly different flow picture. Spot $BTC ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows during the holiday-shortened week. However, Friday’s withdrawal slowed sharply to $13.2 million compared with $282.7 million on Thursday.
Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, recorded nearly $197 million in net inflows for the week. Friday’s $216.4 million influx helped drive the weekly total higher despite earlier outflows. QCP Capital said that the divergence indicated differentiated positioning between the two crypto assets. Ethereum is facing resistance at $2,500 to $2,550, while support sits at $2,400 to $2,425, and a secondary support zone is located at $2,300 to $2,350. $BTC $ETH
Bitcoin volatility also remains relatively low. QCP Capital stated that the volatility curve is still upward sloping while the 25-delta risk reversal is around negative 3 volatility points. Puts are therefore moderately more expensive than calls, even as positioning remains well below stressed levels. The firm added that traders are staying hedged rather than taking a strong directional position.#FedHikeOddsRiseTo89%
Tom Lee Explains Ethereum's Killer Application as ETH Bucks Market Downturn Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee says Ethereum (ETH) is becoming the settlement layer for Wall Street and artificial intelligence (AI). He repeated the claim as ETH held up better than most major cryptocurrencies over the past week.
Ether Holds Up While Rivals Slip Ether was among the few top-ten assets to trade higher over the past seven days. Tron (TRX) was the only other gainer, with stablecoins excluded. Bitcoin (BTC), BNB, XRP, Solana (SOL), Zcash (ZEC), and Hyperliquid (HYPE) all posted weekly losses, several exceeding 3%.
Ether changed hands around $2,518 on Monday, down roughly 0.1% over 24 hours. Bitcoin traded near $77,100, off more than 1.5% for the day.#AnthropicCEOCallsForAISlowdown $ETH
次の24時間がどうなるか、誰にも確実には言えない。しかし、あらゆる資産クラスのトレーダーはこの局面を決定的だとみなしている。 世界で最も強力な技術を作る人々からの、まれで統一された警告によって、これから来る数時間の見方が変わった 誰も見ていなかった警告 その中心にあるリスクは、まさに業界の内側から生じている。アンソロピックの最高経営責任者(CEO)は、土曜日に約3,800語のエッセイを公開し、タイトルは「We Must Pace the Frontier(フロンティアの歩みを調整しなければならない)」。業界はモデルの能力がどれくらいの速さで向上するかを意図的に遅らせる必要がある、と論じた。
Revolut Leaks Passports, Bitcoin Transaction Histories to Fake Government Request
Fintech giant Revolut handed sensitive customer data, including passport copies and full Bitcoin transaction histories, to a malicious actor after falling for a fraudulent request disguised as a legitimate government inquiry. According to a customer notification circulated by crypto investigator ZachXBT, Revolut received a request for customer information that appeared to come from a government agency, sent from an unauthorized email account using the agency's official domain. Because the message carried valid domain authentication credentials, Revolut fulfilled it in the belief it was genuine. The exposed data was extensive. Per the notice, it spanned identity details such as full name, date of birth and occupation; contact information including postal address, email and phone number; and document and verification data, including a copy of the victim's passport or driver's license and the selfie provided for verification. Most alarming for crypto holders, the financial data included account statements with IBAN and wallet reference numbers, withdrawal records and full transaction history, including Bitcoin. Revolut said no biometric facial telemetry data was involved. A Revolut spokesperson confirmed the breach to TechCrunch, describing it as "a sophisticated external impersonation scam where an unauthorised third party utilised a legitimate government agency domain email to submit fraudulent requests for information." The company said a "limited" number of customers were affected, that it had blocked the email address and alerted the agency, law enforcement and regulators, and that its systems and customer funds were unaffected. Revolut declined to say how many people were hit or which agency was impersonated. ZachXBT said the incident appeared to target high-net-worth users, a concern given the surge in violent "wrench attacks" against known crypto holders. The leak drew sharp criticism, with several users on social media arguing the episode shows know-your-customer rules have created risk without meaningful benefit.#AnthropicCEOCallsForAISlowdown
$BTC Bitcoin pulls back as another golden cross fails to deliver
Earlier this week, Bitcoin formed a golden cross, a technical signal that occurs when the price’s 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average and is conventionally viewed as a precursor to a bullish rally.
Historically, however, that’s often not been the case. Instead, bitcoin has tended to generate much of its return in the lead-up to the crossover, before pulling back shortly after the signal appears.
The latest occurrence fits that pattern. Bitcoin climbed from $62,000 to $82,000 ahead of the golden cross, which formed at the beginning of the week, and has since fallen from around $80,000 to $77,000.
It’s not the first time the indicator has failed to live up to expectations.
In 2021, Bitcoin climbed from $35,000 in July to around $52,000 in September. A golden cross formed, and the price subsequently dropped to around $40,000.
At the beginning of 2023, bitcoin rallied from $16,000 to $23,000 to created a golden cross in February. The largest cryptocurrency then retreated to around $20,000 in March.
The same thing happened in October 2024. Bitcoin advanced from $54,000 to $70,000 ahead of the crossover, before slipping to around $67,000 heading into November.
Most recently, bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 in April 2025 and rallied to approximately $110,000 in May. After the golden cross formed, BTC pulled back to around $100,000 later in June.
So, even though the golden cross is considered a bullish longer-term signal, it can also be a lagging indicator. By the time it appears, a substantial portion of the rally may have already occurred.#AnthropicCEOCallsForAISlowdown
$ETH Ethereum nears the key resistance zone Ethereum trades at $2,505 on Monday, holding a bullish near‑term bias as price sits comfortably above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs at $2,264, $2,146, and $2,203, respectively. The clustering of these EMAs below spot suggests an underlying bid, while the RSI near 60 hints at constructive, though not overextended, momentum. The MACD remains negative, reinforcing that the latest advance still faces some hesitancy despite the supportive trend backdrop. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier at $2,550, followed by the more distant psychological hurdle at $3,000.
On the downside, initial support comes from the 50-day EMA at $2,264, with deeper demand potentially emerging around the 200-day EMA at $2,203 and the 100-day EMA at $2,146. A more pronounced corrective phase would expose the structural floor near $2,000, while only a sustained break below $1,385 would seriously undermine the broader bullish structure.#AnthropicCEOCallsForAISlowdown
$BTC Bitcoin recovers slightly after a pullback Bitcoin price trades at $77,643 on Monday after declining nearly 5% in the previous week. BTC retains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $73,376, the 200-day EMA at $73,049 and the 100-day EMA at $71,201, keeping the broader uptrend supported.#AnthropicCEOCallsForAISlowdown