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The October consumer price index is expected to show headline inflation of 0.3% and core inflation of 0.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast, CNBC reported. Both would be slower than September's respective gains of 0.6% and 0.3%, yet still point to continued price pressures.
The report, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, will not include an annual rate because last year's government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting some data and compiling a full index level. Bank of America estimated annual rates of 3.8% for headline and 2.7% for core, each 0.1 percentage point above September and well above the Fed's 2% goal.
Gasoline prices fell more than 4% in October, according to the Energy Information Administration, easing a surge that had added more than a dollar a gallon over the past year. Officials say inflation first driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and the Iran war has proved more persistent than expected, spreading into services and other areas beyond the directly affected sectors.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that the labor market has moved toward what historically counts as full employment while the problem has been entirely on the inflation side, and that officials must come to terms with a cost-side and inflation-side failure. He said the current run defies what supply shocks and tariffs would normally produce, and that the AI data center buildout increasingly looks like old-fashioned demand overheating, with spending on construction workers, electricity and equipment adding to price pressures.
Markets price a better than 80% probability of a quarter-point increase at the December meeting, according to CME FedWatch, after the Fed held rates in October. Goolsbee, who does not vote on the FOMC this year but will in 2027, did not say which way he leaned, though he said conditions could warrant action and that the standard approach is to move early rather than let the economy overheat.
Growth remains firm, with third-quarter GDP at 3.4% and tracking 3.5% for the final three months of the year, according to the Atlanta Fed. Payrolls rose a much better-than-expected 165,000 in October and unemployment edged down to 4.1%, though inflation-adjusted wages have fallen.
Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said the report is the last before the Fed's Dec. 8-9 meeting and, if the forecast is right, would effectively lock in another quarter-point increase, absent an indisputably soft 0.1% monthly reading. He said the bigger risk to that call comes from financial markets.

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