$XRP has officially lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering a significant distribution phase. The critical on-chain metric, SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dropped sharply from 1.16 to 0.96.
This is a major red flag for market structure A value below 1.0 confirms that coins are moving on-chain at a loss indicating panic selling among holders
At the current price of $1.43 this behavior mirrors the consolidation phase seen between Sept 2021 and May 2022. We are seeing weak hands capitulate, likely leading to an extended period of range building before the next directional move Watch liquidity levels closely
bitcoin has been trading sideways in a wide range, and this doesn’t always mean the market is strong. Periods like this can reflect uncertainty, especially when price struggles to reclaim key long-term levels. In past cycles, long consolidation phases sometimes resolved with another move down before a clearer bottom formed. That’s why many traders watch these ranges carefully and treat former support levels with caution.
The U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote today at 2:00 PM on a crypto market structure bill. This type of legislation matters because large institutions usually wait for clear rules before entering the market. If the bill is approved, it could gradually allow more institutional capital to participate, which may affect liquidity over time. Because of the timing, traders often watch volume and market activity closely around the vote #bitcoin #crypto #BTC #USsenate #BullRun
Bears are gaining control of the $XRP market structure on the 1-hour timeframe, applying significant selling pressure. All eyes are on the critical support level at $1.30.
This isn't just a random price; it's a key liquidity zone. A failure for bulls to hold this line would likely signal a market structure break, with sellers aiming for the major psychological level of $1.00.
Key Levels to Watch: • **Critical Support:** $1.30 • **Bearish Target:** $1.00 • **Invalidation:** A firm reclaim of $1.3866 would negate this bearish thesis.
My short-term bias on $XRP remains **Bearish** while below the invalidation level.
ON-CHAIN SIGNAL: Whales Are Accumulating $XRP for a Push to $3.00.
The recent bounce in $XRP wasn't just a relief rally. It's a calculated accumulation by whales, and the on-chain data is flashing major bullish signals. We've seen a 4-month high in whale transactions, with over 1,300 transfers exceeding $100k each. Active addresses are also at a 6-month peak.
This move began after shorts became overly crowded, creating a perfect liquidity squeeze from the $2.00 demand zone. Now, big players are absorbing supply, tightening liquidity, and providing the fuel to reclaim market structure.
This isn't just speculation. It's supported by huge fundamental growth: $1 billion in new ETF inflows and a 164% surge in on-ledger stablecoin growth. The target remains the $2.80 to $3.00 range.