Erik Solberg

日付: 2026年1月8日
件名: BTC戦略展望 – 第2週
分類: 機密 / ヘッジファンド戦略。
エグゼクティブサマリー
2025年末に見られた積極的な価格発見の後、ビットコイン（BTC）は洗練された配分段階に入っています。小売のセンチメントは$100,000のナラティブによって持ち上げられていますが、私たちの内部指標、特に機関のポジショニングとデリバティブのアーキテクチャは、戦術的なリトレースメントが差し迫っていることを示唆しています。現在、上昇するオープンインタレストと停滞する価格アクションの間に乖離が見られ、これはデレバレッジイベントの古典的な前兆です。

​A mysterious bond trader (or institution) has placed a massive wager on the direction of US interest rates just weeks before the Federal Reserve's January 28 policy meeting.
​1. The Scale of the Trade
​Volume: 200,000 contracts for the January 2026 Fed Funds futures.​The Record: This shattered the previous record of 84,000 contracts set in late 2025. To put this in perspective, the average daily volume for these contracts is usually around 495,000—meaning this single trade represented nearly half of a typical day's entire market activity.​The Risk (DV01): The trade carries a risk of approximately $8.3 million per basis point (0.01%) move. If interest rate expectations shift by just 0.10%, the value of this position would swing by over $80 million.
​2. What is the Trader Betting On?
​Market reports indicate this was a "sell" trade. In the world of Fed Funds futures, selling (shorting) the contract is a bet that interest rates will stay higher than currently expected or that planned rate cuts will be canceled.
​The Goal: The trader likely believes that the Federal Reserve will be more "hawkish" (keep rates high) due to strong economic data or sticky inflation.​The Timing: The trade was placed just days before the release of the crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. If the jobs report is stronger than expected, it gives the Fed a reason not to cut rates, which would make this trade highly profitable.
​3. Why Does This Matter?
​When a single player moves this much money, it creates a "signal" in the market. It suggests that a major institutional player (like a massive hedge fund or a global bank) has high confidence that the market is currently "mispricing" what the Fed will do in late January.
Key takeaway: This isn't just a trade; it's a massive statement of conviction that US interest rates are not going to drop as fast as people think.

#FedInterestRate #FedRateCutWatch #USJobsData #CPIWatch

Most people calling themselves “futures traders” aren’t traders at all — they’re just drawing lines, guessing, and getting liquidated.
If you want to survive in perps, these fundamentals aren’t "OPTIONAL"— they’re the bare "MINIMUM".
1. Macro Is the Real Boss — Crypto Just Reacts
Markets move because global liquidity expands or contracts.And that liquidity is shaped by:
US Federal Reserve (rates, QT/QE, balance sheet)
US Treasury (issuance, TGA flows, bills vs bonds)
Bond market (real yields, curve shape)
DXY (risk-on/risk-off gauge)
Crypto is NOT independent.
Ignore macro → misread every move.
---
2. Session Timings (Winter – No DST)
Crypto trades 24/7, but liquidity still follows global session flow. If you don’t know these, you misread volatility.
Sessions (UTC – December):
Tokyo: 00:00–09:00
London: 08:00–17:00
New York (Forex): 13:00–22:00
Power overlaps:
London + Tokyo: 08:00–09:00
London + NY: 13:00–17:00 (where most traps, reversals, and real moves occur)
---
3. Price Action Isn’t Enough — Markets Move Through Auction
Candles don’t move because your “support line” looks perfect.
They move because the market is an auction, driven by:
Value migration,Volume/Market Profile,Imbalance fills,Inventory pressure,Trapped traders,Liquidity collection zones
If you can’t read the auction, you can’t read futures.
---
4. BTC & ETH Are Driven by Options Flow — Not Indicators
The biggest hidden driver of crypto volatility is the options market. Currently, Deribit holds the largest BTC options open interest of any exchange.
If you don’t understand:
delta
gamma exposure (pins vs expansion)
volatility crush
dealer hedging
vanna/charm flows
…then you don’t understand why:
ranges hold
breakouts die
fakeouts happen
volatility disappears
sudden spikes appear
None of this is random — it’s options-driven liquidity mechanics.
Crypto Options Expiry (Current Pattern):
Most BTC/ETH expiries on major exchanges settle around 08:00 UTC.
---
5. Even If You Know All This — Crypto Still Has Manipulation
Futures/perps are contracts, not the underlying asset.Whoever owns the underlying asset owns the playground.
It’s their field, their rules, their liquidity — you’re just a participant.
The only assets with relatively cleaner behavior due to deep liquidity and large market cap are:
BTC, and to a strong extent ETH, XRP, SOL, and BNB.
Everything else is a liquidation playground disguised as a trading opportunity.
---
Bottom Line
If you don’t understand:
macro
session rhythm
auction mechanics
options flow
liquidity structure
…you’re not trading — you’re just sketching lines and praying for luck.
---
Final Warning
Stay away from influencers, course sellers, and signal providers.
They’re not here to help you — they’re here to squeeze commissions, referral bonuses, and perks by dragging you into the market. They don’t care about your portfolio and your financial struggle.
If you want to survive, learn the system — not the people who profit from your losses.
#FutureTarding #Leverage #Crypto
$ETH $BTC

連邦準備制度は25ベーシスポイントの利下げを行い、フェデラルファンドの目標レンジを3.50–3.75%に引き下げました。
市場はほとんど反応しませんでした — なぜなら、この動きは発表のずっと前に完全に織り込まれていたからです。より大きな50ベーシスポイントの利下げは短期的なリスクラリーを引き起こしたかもしれませんが、FRBは期待に沿ったままであったため、サプライズプレミアムはありませんでした。
機関投資家は、これを数週間前に理解していました。さらに重要なのは、彼らが小売トレーダーの考え方を正確に理解していることです — 感情的なトリガー、キャンドルへの執着、そして見出しに対する予測可能な過剰反応。マーケットメイカーは、その行動の周りに流動性トラップを構築します。