MAYA_

#CPIWatch
Hmm, wait..... Two minutes..... To be honest, one thing keeps coming to my mind today - 🤔 When the market stops near an important Fibonacci level after a bounce, the real question is not whether it will go up or down from here. The question is:
How real is this bounce?
I mean, when you look at the chart, sometimes you get a deja vu of the same scene. The price falls, then a nice bounce...... everyone gets a little relievd, thinking maybe the worst part is over. Then the price gets stuck near an important level. This is where I have a little doubt.
And listen, because today is September 11. And there is a big event in front of the market today — the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing the CPI data for August 2026. And the interesting thing is, a few days before the CPI comes, the NFP data for September 4 has given the market a message. 162K new jobs were added to Nonfarm Payrolls, which is stronger than expected. The unemployment rate is also stable at 4.1%. This means that the labor market has become completely weak—such a picture is not yet available.
This is where the calculation gets a little complicated! Isn't it?
Meaning, a strong NFP means that the risk of a recession in the economy is relatively low. As a result, the pressure on the Fed to be strict in controlling inflation is not decreasing. But what if today's CPI tells a different story?
I am watching this place, very carefully. The reason is - the forecast is 3.3%–3.4%. If the CPI comes out higher than that, that is, Hot CPI, then the market may bring up that old fear again: Will the Fed soften so soon?
Probably not!
And yes, that is why, maybe the fear of interest rates staying high for a long time may return. And then the bounce that is looking good in stocks and crypto now may suddenly look like a trap. Buyers will try to reclaim the level, then sellers will come and take away liquidity..... This kind of move is nothing new in the market.
And what if the CPI comes out lower than expected?
Then the story may be reversed - hmm, but it is not completely impossible to dismiss.
A cool CPI could raise expectations for a rate cut. And then risk-on assets - stocks, crypto - could regain strength. A new rally could also begin.
But I'm stopping here too.
To be honest, the market doesn't always respond directly to headlines. Sometimes even with a good CPI, prices go down first, then up. Sometimes with a bad CPI, everyone is bearish, and then the market goes in the oposite direction. This is why the reaction to the Fibonacci level seems to me as important as the CPI number.
Will there be acceptance by going above the level?
Or just wicking and then going down?
Is a false breakout waiting?
I'm not sure yet.
Another thing, there's no way to forget about Gold. If inflation is high, positive or bullish sentiment can be created in Gold as a hedge against the dollar. In other words, Hot CPI may not be the same story for all assets.
So today, it's not just about what the CPI is. How the market reacts after the CPI, that may be the real story. Because a bounce can make people optimistic. A Fibonacci level can test that hope. And the CPI might show - was there really power behind this move, or are we just sitting in front of another liquidity trap.
Today's market is making me think of one thing for now - we'll see what the price will do later, first I want to see which news the market actually believes?
Anyway, let's see ! 🤔
CPI and macroeconomic calendar for the next year :
📅 CPI & MACRO CALENDAR
🗓️ September 11, 2026 — Today
Key Event : August 2026 CPI release
Potential Market Impact: Short-term volatility and guidance for the September FOMC meeting.
🗓️ October 14, 2026
Key Event : September 2026 CPI release
Potential Market Impact: Determining Q4 market sentiment.
🗓️ November 10, 2026
Key Event : October 2026 CPI release
Potential Market Impact: Context for US mid-term politics and the year-end rally.
🗓️ December 10, 2026
Key Event : November 2026 CPI release
Potential Market Impact: Year-end FOMC rate decision and potential for a Christmas rally.
🗓️ January – May 2027
Key Event : Monthly CPI & Core CPI reports
Potential Market Impact: Assessing the trajectory of interest rate cuts (Fed Pivot).
🗓️ August / September 2027
Key Event : Enwire Services & Global Macro Cycle
Potential Market Impact: Confirming whether the long-term inflation target (2%) is being achieved.
My market outlook (bullish or bearish?):
Although a brief bearish dip occurred in the market following the CPI release, I maintain a bullish sentiment regarding gold and risk-on assets in the long term. While inflation data may cause a temporary setback, macro policies towards the end of the year or into the coming year will turn favorable for the crypto and commodity markets.
$PAXG $XAU
$CL

バイナンスの新しいバナーは、500以上の暗号通貨を強調しています。なぜ、1つのプラットフォームにこれほど多くの選択肢があることが重要なのでしょうか？
暗号資産の世界で、取引がほんの数種類の有名なコインに限られていた時期がありました。しかし、その景色は大きく変わりました。バイナンスの新しいバナーでまず目を引くのは、「"500以上の暗号通貨から選べます。"」というメッセージです。
つまり、対象範囲はビットコインやイーサリアムだけにとどまりません。バイナンスは、自社のグローバル・プラットフォーム上で500以上の暗号資産と、1,000を超える取引ペアをサポートしていることをアピールしています。では、ユーザーにとってそれは何を意味するのでしょうか。選択肢が大幅に広がる、ということです。