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Current price ≈ 0.1963 USDT +49.73% rise, sharp rally from ~0.13–0.15 lows, accelerating upside with green candles.
Price action & Bollinger Bands: Price near upper BB (UP ~0.1888, MB ~0.1526, DN ~0.1165). Bands expanded on up move, price hugging upper band — overbought extension, potential short-term pullback/consolidation.
Volumes: Current ~118M, MA(5) ~123M, MA(10) ~68M — volume spike on recent green candles (strong buying pressure), now elevated on upside. Watch for dry-up on dips or surge on green.
Key indicators: • MACD: Strongly positive (DIF 0.0125, DEA 0.0077, MACD 0.0048), histogram bullish — momentum up. • RSI(6/12/24): 98.58 / 95.57 / 89.61 — deeply overbought (RSI6 >95), exhaustion/pullback signal possible. Uptrend with extreme overbought conditions + upper BB hug suggest short-term pullback likely before next leg up. 🟢 Long (moderate-high risk) Entry: 0.19–0.195 (current or dip to MB) TP1: 0.21–0.22 TP2: 0.23–0.25 SL: 0.18–0.185 R/R: ~1:3+ Comment: Good if RSI pullback + volume on green. Momentum favors continuation/scalp on dip.
🔴 Short (moderate risk) Entry: 0.20–0.205 (fade at upper extension/resistance) TP1: 0.19–0.185 TP2: 0.17–0.16 SL: 0.21+ R/R: ~1:3+ Comment: Strong if rejection at resistance + MACD divergence. Counter-trend if overextension fades.
⚠️ Most likely scenario now Short-term pullback/consolidation from extreme overbought levels (RSI>95) towards MB (~0.15–0.16) or slightly lower. Then possible continuation higher if strong volume support. Longs have structural edge in explosive uptrend; shorts only on clear rejection signals. High vol — tight risk, watch RSI/volume closely.
Short-term holders (STH) are in a zone of severe stress. While $BTC is balancing around $67,000, the market is increasingly resembling a bearish one.
📊 Numbers that make you nervous: • STH purchase price: averages $94,200. • Unrealized losses: at the current price, the gap is -28%. • Duration of pressure: the price has been below the STH payback level for 4 consecutive months. CryptoQuant analysts note that this is the longest period of stress in this cycle.
🔍 Key conclusions of experts: • Lack of fresh capital: New investors are in no hurry to buy up the decline. On the contrary, the inflow of capital has become negative - a sign that market weakness provokes an exit, not an entry. • Technical analysis: The .382 Fibonacci support level has not held. The next critical stop is the .618 level, which is located around $57,800. • A ray of hope: Bitfinex analysts have noticed that long-term holders (LTH) have started accumulating assets again (they currently hold ~14.3 million BTC). This may indicate a mid-cycle “reset” rather than a final crash.
📉 What about other assets? Ethereum failed to hold the psychological $2,000 mark and fell to $1,950. $ETH is currently trading at spring 2025 levels, showing weakness following the flagship.
#TokenUnlock 🔓 Token Unlocking – February 13, 2026 🔓 $BB 📌 What does this mean for the market? ✅ Supply growth – a new number of tokens enters free circulation. ⚖️ This can cause pressure on the price due to a possible excess supply.
📈 Investors are closely following the event, because unlocking sometimes opens up both new opportunities for accumulation and risks for short-term traders.
👀 Be prepared for increased volatility!
DYOR (Do Your Own Research) is always the right approach.