Scientist Kepler

How ‘Undervalued’ Bitcoin Sell-Offs Could Set Up the Next Long-Term Rally
Over the past few months, Bitcoin’s correction has been brutal. After climbing to around $126,000, BTC has dropped to nearly $68,000 at the time of writing. For many traders, that feels like a collapse.
But here’s the twist: sometimes the most painful sell-offs create the strongest foundations for future rallies.
Instead of seeing this phase as purely destructive, on-chain data suggests it could be a market reset the kind that historically comes before major recoveries.
Bitcoin Is Approaching “Undervalued” Territory
One key metric analysts are watching is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, tracked by CryptoQuant.
The MVRV ratio compares:
Market value (current market cap)
Realized value (value of coins at the price they last moved)
When MVRV moves close to 1, it signals that Bitcoin is nearing undervaluation.
Right now, Bitcoin’s MVRV is around 1.1 — close to that critical zone.
Historically, the last four times Bitcoin entered this range:
The market went through a period of accumulation
Selling pressure eventually dried up
A broader rally followed
Important: Undervaluation doesn’t mean the price immediately pumps. Prices can stay low for weeks or even months. But this phase often marks smart money accumulation.

Why Price Could Drop Further Before Recovering
For Bitcoin to enter deeper undervaluation, selling pressure must continue.
And right now, institutions are a big part of that pressure.
According to data from SosoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks of net outflows the third time this has happened since launch.
In just two trading sessions, cumulative ETF outflows hit $686.67 million, nearing the $1 billion mark.

That means:
Investors are locking in profits
Some are cutting losses
Demand is temporarily weaker
Spot market data also supports this. According to CoinGlass, demand fell sharply from $1.02 billion to $89.73 million on February 12, with net selling dominating.
If this continues, Bitcoin could dip further pushing MVRV even closer to full undervaluation.
And ironically, that might be exactly what the market needs.

Long-Term Holders Are the Real Key
The most important group right now? Long-term holders.
The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric also tracked by CryptoQuant shows a reading of 0. That suggests long-term holders are not aggressively selling.
Meanwhile, the ratio of long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH) has declined, meaning short-term traders are the ones selling harder.
This is a classic cycle dynamic:
Short-term traders panic sell
Long-term holders stay calm
Supply gradually tightens
Price stabilizes
A new uptrend begins
If long-term conviction remains strong while short-term selling exhausts itself, Bitcoin’s current “undervalued” approach could form the base of the next major rally.
What Would Confirm a Recovery?
For Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level, we would likely need:
Stabilizing macroeconomic conditions
Reduced ETF outflows or renewed inflows
Strengthening bullish sentiment
Continued accumulation by long-term holders
If those pieces align while Bitcoin is sitting near undervaluation, history suggests a powerful upside move could follow.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s correction from $126,000 to $68,000 looks painful on the surface. But on-chain metrics like MVRV suggest the asset is nearing levels that have historically preceded major rallies.
Yes, more downside is possible.
But if long-term holders stay strong and selling pressure fades, this “undervalued” phase could be remembered not as the collapse but as the reset before the next expansion cycle.
Sometimes, the rally starts when the fear feels strongest.
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$BTC
$MUBARAK
$TAKE
___________________________
#MarketRebound
#CPIWatch
#USNFPBlowout
#TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned
#USRetailSalesMissForecast

The numbers don't lie. $XRP bled 14% through February, and that kind of damage doesn't heal overnight. Short-term traders are staring down a potential slide to $1.0 over the next one to four weeks, and honestly, the chart agrees with them.
But zoom out a bit and the picture shifts dramatically.

What's Keeping Bulls Alive
Two words: legislation and ETFs. The Market Structure Bill making its way through Congress has injected real optimism into XRP's medium-term thesis. Pair that with growing institutional appetite through XRP-spot ETF filings, and you've got a recipe for recovery, just not immediately.
The medium-term window of four to eight weeks points toward $2.5. Stretch that to eight through twelve weeks, and $3.0 comes into focus. These aren't random numbers either. They're anchored to tangible catalysts that either play out or they don't.
What Could Go Wrong
Plenty. A hawkish Bank of Japan raising its neutral rate toward 1.5% or higher could trigger another yen carry trade unwind, flashbacks to mid-2024 nobody wants. Soft US economic data feeding recession fears would pull risk assets down across the board. Political gridlock stalling the Market Structure Bill kills a core bullish catalyst. And if XRP-spot ETFs start bleeding outflows instead of attracting capital, that medium-term thesis crumbles fast.
Any combination of these sends XRP back toward $1.0 and potentially the $0.77 zone.

Reading the Chart
After dropping 2.58% on February 10 to close near $1.40, XRP sits firmly beneath both its 50-day EMA at $1.80 and 200-day EMA around $2.18. That's bearish structure, plain and simple.
Recovery requires clearing $1.50 first, that opens the door to the 50-day EMA. Push through that, and the 200-day EMA becomes the next battleground. Only a sustained breakout above both moving averages flips the trend convincingly bullish.
On the downside, losing the lower trendline exposes the February 6 low near $1.12. Below that, $1.0 is the last line of defense before things get ugly.
The Bigger Picture
Fed policy direction matters enormously here. A dovish pivot with rate cuts on the horizon would lift sentiment across crypto. A cooperative BoJ keeping its neutral rate closer to 1% helps too, it keeps the carry trade stable and risk appetite healthy.
If the stars align, Market Structure Bill passes the Senate, ETF inflows accelerate, and macro conditions cooperate, XRP doesn't just hit $3.0. It challenges its all-time high of $3.66. Break that ceiling and the six to twelve month target of $5 enters the conversation.
Right now though, patience matters more than conviction. The bearish structure is intact, and fighting the trend rarely pays. Watch $1.50 on the upside and $1.0 on the downside, those are your signals for what comes next.
#XRP
#CPIWatch
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare
#USNFPBlowout

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