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原文参照
ビットコインの4年サイクルは死んでいない — まさに時間通りに進行中です。
ズームアウトし、騒音を無視し、ビットコインが10年以上にわたってたどってきたロードマップを見てください。
長期チャートは、暗号の中で最もクリーンなシグナルの一つを示しています：
サイクルピークのタイミング：
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 ローディング中…
すべてのピークは、おおよそ1,420–1,450日間隔で訪れます — ほぼ時計のように。
そして、すべてのピークの後には、一つの厳しい真実が繰り返されます：
2012年のピーク → -79%の崩壊
2017年のピーク → -81%の崩壊
2021年のピーク → -75%の崩壊
同じ構造。同じタイミング。同じマクロ心理。
だから、人々が「今回は違う」と言うとき、チャートは言います：
いいえ — 今回は同じです。そして次の主要なピークは2025年に向けて整っています。
歴史が繰り返されるなら、私たちは最終の加速段階に入っています。
集中してください。戦略的でいてください。
本当の動きはまだ始まっていません。
#CYCLE
ズームアウトし、騒音を無視し、ビットコインが10年以上にわたってたどってきたロードマップを見てください。
長期チャートは、暗号の中で最もクリーンなシグナルの一つを示しています：
サイクルピークのタイミング：
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 ローディング中…
すべてのピークは、おおよそ1,420–1,450日間隔で訪れます — ほぼ時計のように。
そして、すべてのピークの後には、一つの厳しい真実が繰り返されます：
2012年のピーク → -79%の崩壊
2017年のピーク → -81%の崩壊
2021年のピーク → -75%の崩壊
同じ構造。同じタイミング。同じマクロ心理。
だから、人々が「今回は違う」と言うとき、チャートは言います：
いいえ — 今回は同じです。そして次の主要なピークは2025年に向けて整っています。
歴史が繰り返されるなら、私たちは最終の加速段階に入っています。
集中してください。戦略的でいてください。
本当の動きはまだ始まっていません。
#CYCLE
翻訳
$TAO analysis : Bittensor under pressure, risks losing the $200 level
Bittensor (TAO) is approaching the key psychological level of $200 after losing the short-term support zone at $215, which coincided with the low of Friday’s trading session. This move puts TAO at risk of breaking below the $200 mark, potentially opening the door for a test of Pivot Point S1 around $194.
In a more negative scenario, if the price closes below the $194 level, selling pressure could intensify and push TAO further down toward Pivot Point S2 at $167, signaling an extended corrective move.
$TAO
Bittensor (TAO) is approaching the key psychological level of $200 after losing the short-term support zone at $215, which coincided with the low of Friday’s trading session. This move puts TAO at risk of breaking below the $200 mark, potentially opening the door for a test of Pivot Point S1 around $194.
In a more negative scenario, if the price closes below the $194 level, selling pressure could intensify and push TAO further down toward Pivot Point S2 at $167, signaling an extended corrective move.
$TAO
翻訳
$PUMP analysis : Pump.fun targets a decline toward the $0.001000 level
Pump.fun continues to face strong selling pressure as it maintains a downtrend below the psychological threshold of $0.002000, after losing another 3% in Monday’s session. At the time of writing, PUMP is down around 2% on Wednesday, marking three consecutive sessions of sharp declines and signaling that the weakness shows no signs of easing.
From a technical perspective, the nearest support for the token is located at the low formed on October 10, around the $0.001496 level. If this support is broken, selling pressure could push the price further down toward Pivot Point S2 at $0.001051.
Momentum indicators continue to send negative signals. The RSI remains at 26, deep in oversold territory and moving sideways, reflecting overwhelming selling pressure. At the same time, both the MACD line and the signal line are sloping downward, further reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.
To open the door for a trend reversal and restore an uptrend, PUMP would need to quickly reclaim and hold above the $0.002000 level, a key psychological threshold that plays a decisive role in market confidence.
$PUMP
Pump.fun continues to face strong selling pressure as it maintains a downtrend below the psychological threshold of $0.002000, after losing another 3% in Monday’s session. At the time of writing, PUMP is down around 2% on Wednesday, marking three consecutive sessions of sharp declines and signaling that the weakness shows no signs of easing.
From a technical perspective, the nearest support for the token is located at the low formed on October 10, around the $0.001496 level. If this support is broken, selling pressure could push the price further down toward Pivot Point S2 at $0.001051.
Momentum indicators continue to send negative signals. The RSI remains at 26, deep in oversold territory and moving sideways, reflecting overwhelming selling pressure. At the same time, both the MACD line and the signal line are sloping downward, further reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.
To open the door for a trend reversal and restore an uptrend, PUMP would need to quickly reclaim and hold above the $0.002000 level, a key psychological threshold that plays a decisive role in market confidence.
$PUMP
翻訳
$NIGHT analysis: Midnight plunges, may break a key support level
Midnight continues to face strong selling pressure, falling more than 3% in Wednesday’s trading session, extending the 24% plunge from the previous session. Three consecutive declines since NIGHT peaked at $0.1200 on Sunday have wiped out around 33% of its value in just a few days, placing the coin among the weakest-performing assets of the week.
On the 4-hour chart, the privacy-focused sidechain of the Cardano ecosystem is approaching a potential breakdown of a short-term support line formed by the lows on December 16 and 18, around the $0.07500 area. A clear candle close below this level could trigger another wave of selling, pushing the price down toward the Pivot S1 at $0.07000, or even deeper to the psychological support zone around $0.05000.
Technical signals on the 4-hour timeframe continue to strongly favor the bears. The RSI has dropped to 39 and is nearing oversold territory, reflecting clearly weakening momentum. At the same time, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, while the negative histogram bars are expanding, indicating that bearish pressure is still intensifying.
In a more positive scenario, if the price manages to bounce from the $0.07000 area, NIGHT would need to quickly reclaim the 50-period EMA at $0.07808 to weaken the current downtrend and open the door for a short-term recovery.
$NIGHT
Midnight continues to face strong selling pressure, falling more than 3% in Wednesday’s trading session, extending the 24% plunge from the previous session. Three consecutive declines since NIGHT peaked at $0.1200 on Sunday have wiped out around 33% of its value in just a few days, placing the coin among the weakest-performing assets of the week.
On the 4-hour chart, the privacy-focused sidechain of the Cardano ecosystem is approaching a potential breakdown of a short-term support line formed by the lows on December 16 and 18, around the $0.07500 area. A clear candle close below this level could trigger another wave of selling, pushing the price down toward the Pivot S1 at $0.07000, or even deeper to the psychological support zone around $0.05000.
Technical signals on the 4-hour timeframe continue to strongly favor the bears. The RSI has dropped to 39 and is nearing oversold territory, reflecting clearly weakening momentum. At the same time, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, while the negative histogram bars are expanding, indicating that bearish pressure is still intensifying.
In a more positive scenario, if the price manages to bounce from the $0.07000 area, NIGHT would need to quickly reclaim the 50-period EMA at $0.07808 to weaken the current downtrend and open the door for a short-term recovery.
$NIGHT
翻訳
The stablecoin market reached $299B in total market cap.
Here's what stands out in the data ↓
1️⃣ Two stablecoins dominate the market
> Tether: $188.7B (63% of total market)
> Circle (USDC): $74.3B (25% of total market)
Together, these two account for $263B, which is 88% of the entire stablecoin market. The remaining 12% is split among dozens of other stablecoins.
2️⃣ Growth rates vary significantly
Over the past 30 days:
• RLUSD (Ripple): +17.49%
• Paxos: +11.78%
• MakerDAO: +6.65%
• Tether: +1.48%
• Circle: +0.89%
• Ethena: -16.80%
RLUSD grew fastest despite being newly launched and reaching only $1.4B in total size. Ethena experienced the sharpest decline, dropping nearly 17% in value.
3️⃣ Stablecoins exist across multiple blockchains
Distribution by network:
• Ethereum: $171.7B (57%)
• TRON: $80.0B (27%)
• Solana: $14.8B (5%)
• BNB Chain: $12.6B (4%)
• Arbitrum: $7.6B (3%)
TRON holds $80B in stablecoins, which represents more than a quarter of all stablecoin value.
4️⃣ Different expansion strategies
Tether operates on 5 different platforms/networks
Circle operates on 2 platforms
Paxos operates on 5 platforms
Most other stablecoins operate on 1-2 platforms. The larger stablecoins by market cap tend to have presence across more networks.
5️⃣ Backing approaches differ
Traditional collateralized stablecoins (Tether, Circle, Paxos) hold the largest market shares. MakerDAO uses a decentralized model and holds $10.5B. Ethena uses a yield-bearing model with delta-neutral positions and saw the largest decline among major stablecoins.
Here's what stands out in the data ↓
1️⃣ Two stablecoins dominate the market
> Tether: $188.7B (63% of total market)
> Circle (USDC): $74.3B (25% of total market)
Together, these two account for $263B, which is 88% of the entire stablecoin market. The remaining 12% is split among dozens of other stablecoins.
2️⃣ Growth rates vary significantly
Over the past 30 days:
• RLUSD (Ripple): +17.49%
• Paxos: +11.78%
• MakerDAO: +6.65%
• Tether: +1.48%
• Circle: +0.89%
• Ethena: -16.80%
RLUSD grew fastest despite being newly launched and reaching only $1.4B in total size. Ethena experienced the sharpest decline, dropping nearly 17% in value.
3️⃣ Stablecoins exist across multiple blockchains
Distribution by network:
• Ethereum: $171.7B (57%)
• TRON: $80.0B (27%)
• Solana: $14.8B (5%)
• BNB Chain: $12.6B (4%)
• Arbitrum: $7.6B (3%)
TRON holds $80B in stablecoins, which represents more than a quarter of all stablecoin value.
4️⃣ Different expansion strategies
Tether operates on 5 different platforms/networks
Circle operates on 2 platforms
Paxos operates on 5 platforms
Most other stablecoins operate on 1-2 platforms. The larger stablecoins by market cap tend to have presence across more networks.
5️⃣ Backing approaches differ
Traditional collateralized stablecoins (Tether, Circle, Paxos) hold the largest market shares. MakerDAO uses a decentralized model and holds $10.5B. Ethena uses a yield-bearing model with delta-neutral positions and saw the largest decline among major stablecoins.
原文参照
クリスマスの周りでのBTCの上昇の確率は非常に高い
サンタクロースは今夜ビットコインにプレゼントを届けるのでしょうか？
今日は2025年12月24日です。いわゆる「サンタクロースラリー」にFOMOする前に、過去10年間の歴史的データに基づいてクリスマスのパフォーマンスを振り返りましょう。
強い下落：2017年（バブル崩壊）、2021年（ATH後の修正）。
横ばいの動き：2018年、2019年、2022年、2023年。これは大部分を占めています。
強いラリー：真の「大きなポンプ」を記録したのは2020年だけで、新しいサイクルの始まりを示しました。
2025年クリスマスに向けた個人的な見通し
価格チャートとオンチェーンデータに基づくと、市場は現在、建設的な構造にあり、前回の最高値（ATH）を上回る再テストまたは潜在的なブレイクアウトに向かっています。「サンタクロースラリー」に対する期待はしたがってかなり高まっています。
しかし、歴史的データに基づくと、トレーダーは12月25日が通常最もボラティリティの高い日ではないことに注意するべきです。本当の「サンタクロース効果」はクリスマスの後に始まることが多く、トレーダーは新年に向けてポジションを取るために戻ってきます。
$BTC
サンタクロースは今夜ビットコインにプレゼントを届けるのでしょうか？
今日は2025年12月24日です。いわゆる「サンタクロースラリー」にFOMOする前に、過去10年間の歴史的データに基づいてクリスマスのパフォーマンスを振り返りましょう。
強い下落：2017年（バブル崩壊）、2021年（ATH後の修正）。
横ばいの動き：2018年、2019年、2022年、2023年。これは大部分を占めています。
強いラリー：真の「大きなポンプ」を記録したのは2020年だけで、新しいサイクルの始まりを示しました。
2025年クリスマスに向けた個人的な見通し
価格チャートとオンチェーンデータに基づくと、市場は現在、建設的な構造にあり、前回の最高値（ATH）を上回る再テストまたは潜在的なブレイクアウトに向かっています。「サンタクロースラリー」に対する期待はしたがってかなり高まっています。
しかし、歴史的データに基づくと、トレーダーは12月25日が通常最もボラティリティの高い日ではないことに注意するべきです。本当の「サンタクロース効果」はクリスマスの後に始まることが多く、トレーダーは新年に向けてポジションを取るために戻ってきます。
$BTC
翻訳
Liquidity is mostly concentrated in the area of 90k and there are only a few days left for options orders MaxPain Price to also be above 90k, will there be a scam pump to kill all long positions?
$BTC
$BTC
翻訳
Trend Research bought an additional 46,000 ETH, bringing its total holdings to more than 580,000 ETH
According to data from Ember, Trend Research, a secondary investment firm backed by Jack Yi, continued to increase its position today by purchasing an additional 46,379 ETH using leverage, with a total value estimated at around 137 million USD. Since early November, when ETH was trading around the 3,400 USD level, Trend Research has accumulated approximately 580,000 ETH, corresponding to a total investment of about 1.72 billion USD.
The average cost basis of this ETH holding is around 3,208 USD. At current prices, the unrealized loss stands at approximately 141 million USD. To execute this strategy, Trend Research has borrowed a total of 887 million USDT from the Aave protocol, equivalent to a leverage ratio of nearly 2x.
Notably, this wallet address is believed to belong to the same whale that previously drew attention for shorting ETH and realizing profits of around 24.48 million USD, before reversing into a long-term long position. The continued leveraged accumulation reflects strong confidence in ETH’s medium- to long-term outlook, despite ongoing price volatility risks.
$ETH
According to data from Ember, Trend Research, a secondary investment firm backed by Jack Yi, continued to increase its position today by purchasing an additional 46,379 ETH using leverage, with a total value estimated at around 137 million USD. Since early November, when ETH was trading around the 3,400 USD level, Trend Research has accumulated approximately 580,000 ETH, corresponding to a total investment of about 1.72 billion USD.
The average cost basis of this ETH holding is around 3,208 USD. At current prices, the unrealized loss stands at approximately 141 million USD. To execute this strategy, Trend Research has borrowed a total of 887 million USDT from the Aave protocol, equivalent to a leverage ratio of nearly 2x.
Notably, this wallet address is believed to belong to the same whale that previously drew attention for shorting ETH and realizing profits of around 24.48 million USD, before reversing into a long-term long position. The continued leveraged accumulation reflects strong confidence in ETH’s medium- to long-term outlook, despite ongoing price volatility risks.
$ETH
翻訳
$ADA Analysis : ADA's 40% rally hits a snag as retail investor confidence weakens
Cardano (ADA) fell 2.1% in the latest session, wiping out all of the previous day’s gains and extending its losing streak since the weekend. This move comes as ADA continues to struggle near the resistance of a descending wedge pattern, even though expectations of a potential 40% rebound are still being maintained by some analysts.
From a fundamental perspective, Cardano’s network activity is showing clear signs of improvement. On-chain transaction volume has increased steadily over the past two weeks, largely driven by the official launch of Midnight, a privacy-focused sidechain. This development has attracted new users and significantly boosted overall engagement across the ecosystem. Data shows that transaction volume peaked at USD 19.74 million on December 10 and has remained elevated in the days that followed, reflecting renewed community interest.
However, these positive on-chain signals have not yet been sufficient to shift sentiment in the derivatives market. Most traders continue to adopt a defensive stance, as ADA open interest declined by 1.57% over the past 24 hours to USD 666.25 million. Funding rates remain negative, indicating that sellers still dominate and are willing to pay a premium to maintain short positions.
On the daily chart, ADA continues to trade within a descending wedge structure. The RSI has rebounded toward the 38 level, while the MACD is moving closer to a bullish crossover, suggesting that selling pressure has partially eased. If buying momentum improves, the price could move higher to test the 0.435 USD area. Conversely, the support zone around 0.3415 USD remains a critical level that traders are closely watching for short-term direction.
$ADA
Cardano (ADA) fell 2.1% in the latest session, wiping out all of the previous day’s gains and extending its losing streak since the weekend. This move comes as ADA continues to struggle near the resistance of a descending wedge pattern, even though expectations of a potential 40% rebound are still being maintained by some analysts.
From a fundamental perspective, Cardano’s network activity is showing clear signs of improvement. On-chain transaction volume has increased steadily over the past two weeks, largely driven by the official launch of Midnight, a privacy-focused sidechain. This development has attracted new users and significantly boosted overall engagement across the ecosystem. Data shows that transaction volume peaked at USD 19.74 million on December 10 and has remained elevated in the days that followed, reflecting renewed community interest.
However, these positive on-chain signals have not yet been sufficient to shift sentiment in the derivatives market. Most traders continue to adopt a defensive stance, as ADA open interest declined by 1.57% over the past 24 hours to USD 666.25 million. Funding rates remain negative, indicating that sellers still dominate and are willing to pay a premium to maintain short positions.
On the daily chart, ADA continues to trade within a descending wedge structure. The RSI has rebounded toward the 38 level, while the MACD is moving closer to a bullish crossover, suggesting that selling pressure has partially eased. If buying momentum improves, the price could move higher to test the 0.435 USD area. Conversely, the support zone around 0.3415 USD remains a critical level that traders are closely watching for short-term direction.
$ADA
翻訳
Bitcoin on track to record the second worst Q4 in history after heavy losses
Bitcoin is on track to record its second-worst fourth quarter in history, trailing only the 2018 crypto winter. While the scale of the drawdown in 2025 is still less severe than in 2018, performance has been significantly worse than in other weak years such as 2014, 2019, and 2022. This places 2025 beyond the scope of a mild correction and closer to a full-scale collapse.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest period, delivering an average return of around 77% and often acting as a year-end recovery phase. This year, however, reality has diverged sharply from historical norms. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 23% in Q4, completely reversing expectations and erasing most of the gains accumulated during the second quarter. Ending the year with a sharp decline has weighed heavily on investor psychology, reinforcing the belief that the market has entered a prolonged downtrend.
According to CryptoQuant’s December 2025 report, the primary driver behind the sell-off is demand exhaustion. The key buyer groups that fueled the 2024–2025 rally, including spot ETF investors and corporate treasuries, have largely stepped back. At the same time, multiple signals suggest that whales have exited the market. Meanwhile, expectations of a year-end rally left many traders who bought in November trapped in losing positions.
$BTC
Bitcoin is on track to record its second-worst fourth quarter in history, trailing only the 2018 crypto winter. While the scale of the drawdown in 2025 is still less severe than in 2018, performance has been significantly worse than in other weak years such as 2014, 2019, and 2022. This places 2025 beyond the scope of a mild correction and closer to a full-scale collapse.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest period, delivering an average return of around 77% and often acting as a year-end recovery phase. This year, however, reality has diverged sharply from historical norms. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 23% in Q4, completely reversing expectations and erasing most of the gains accumulated during the second quarter. Ending the year with a sharp decline has weighed heavily on investor psychology, reinforcing the belief that the market has entered a prolonged downtrend.
According to CryptoQuant’s December 2025 report, the primary driver behind the sell-off is demand exhaustion. The key buyer groups that fueled the 2024–2025 rally, including spot ETF investors and corporate treasuries, have largely stepped back. At the same time, multiple signals suggest that whales have exited the market. Meanwhile, expectations of a year-end rally left many traders who bought in November trapped in losing positions.
$BTC
翻訳
TVL Ethena plunges more than 50%, USDe records record net outflows since October
According to data from DeFiLlama, Ethena’s total value locked (TVL) has fallen sharply by more than 50% since the “1011” event, declining from a peak of $14.305 billion to around $6.551 billion. The current TVL structure of Ethena is largely driven by USDe, the protocol’s core stablecoin.
Data from the Entropy Advisors dashboard shows that redemption pressure on USDe has increased significantly. Since October, USDe has recorded cumulative net redemptions exceeding $8 billion. In October alone, net outflows surpassed $5 billion, marking the highest level since the asset was launched.
These developments reflect a deterioration in market confidence in Ethena’s model amid tightening liquidity conditions and a broader spread of risk-averse sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. The strong withdrawal trend could continue to put pressure on the scale of operations and the overall stability of the Ethena ecosystem in the period ahead.
$ENA
According to data from DeFiLlama, Ethena’s total value locked (TVL) has fallen sharply by more than 50% since the “1011” event, declining from a peak of $14.305 billion to around $6.551 billion. The current TVL structure of Ethena is largely driven by USDe, the protocol’s core stablecoin.
Data from the Entropy Advisors dashboard shows that redemption pressure on USDe has increased significantly. Since October, USDe has recorded cumulative net redemptions exceeding $8 billion. In October alone, net outflows surpassed $5 billion, marking the highest level since the asset was launched.
These developments reflect a deterioration in market confidence in Ethena’s model amid tightening liquidity conditions and a broader spread of risk-averse sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. The strong withdrawal trend could continue to put pressure on the scale of operations and the overall stability of the Ethena ecosystem in the period ahead.
$ENA
翻訳
Class action lawsuit accuses Pump.fun and the Solana ecosystem of operating unauthorized "digital casinos"
A broadened class-action lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York alleges that the memecoin platform Pump.fun and key entities within the Solana ecosystem jointly operated an illegal “digital casino” — allegations that the defendants deny. The consolidated complaint, filed on July 22, 2025, estimates that retail investors suffered losses ranging from $4 billion to $5.5 billion, and accuses the defendants of violating U.S. securities laws and the RICO Act. The court has allowed the plaintiffs to file a second amended complaint by December 19, 2025, opening the door to potential treble damages.
Originally targeting only Pump.fun operator Baton Corporation Ltd. and its three founders, the lawsuit has since expanded to include Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, and senior executives, including co-founders Anatoly Yakovenko and Raj Gokal. The plaintiffs describe Pump.fun as a “digital casino” that has generated more than $850 million in fees since 2024, with the majority of issued tokens ultimately becoming worthless. The complaint also alleges the offering of unregistered securities, misleading conduct, and organized fraud built on Solana’s infrastructure.
$PUMP
A broadened class-action lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York alleges that the memecoin platform Pump.fun and key entities within the Solana ecosystem jointly operated an illegal “digital casino” — allegations that the defendants deny. The consolidated complaint, filed on July 22, 2025, estimates that retail investors suffered losses ranging from $4 billion to $5.5 billion, and accuses the defendants of violating U.S. securities laws and the RICO Act. The court has allowed the plaintiffs to file a second amended complaint by December 19, 2025, opening the door to potential treble damages.
Originally targeting only Pump.fun operator Baton Corporation Ltd. and its three founders, the lawsuit has since expanded to include Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, and senior executives, including co-founders Anatoly Yakovenko and Raj Gokal. The plaintiffs describe Pump.fun as a “digital casino” that has generated more than $850 million in fees since 2024, with the majority of issued tokens ultimately becoming worthless. The complaint also alleges the offering of unregistered securities, misleading conduct, and organized fraud built on Solana’s infrastructure.
$PUMP
翻訳
GOLD - ATH
SILVER - ATH
S&P 500 - ATH
NASDAQ - ATH
Dow Jones Index - ATH
While Bitcoin is down -28% from its peak, it experienced its worst fourth quarter in the last 7 years without any negative news, false rumors, or scandals.
There is no other explanation than to blatantly manipulate the market.
$BTC
SILVER - ATH
S&P 500 - ATH
NASDAQ - ATH
Dow Jones Index - ATH
While Bitcoin is down -28% from its peak, it experienced its worst fourth quarter in the last 7 years without any negative news, false rumors, or scandals.
There is no other explanation than to blatantly manipulate the market.
$BTC
翻訳
AAVE is generating over 85% of the total revenue in the on-chain lending sector.
Insane how much market share a single platform can capture.
$AAVE
Insane how much market share a single platform can capture.
$AAVE
翻訳
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see persistent outflows as institutional appetite weakens
Institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum is showing clear signs of fatigue, with new data from Glassnode and SoSoValue indicating that ETF inflows have remained negative for more than six weeks.
The trend reflects a broader liquidity contraction across crypto markets, as risk appetite falls and allocators take a more cautious stance heading into year-end.
ETF flows turn negative across BTC and ETH
Glassnode’s latest readings show that the 30-day moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs flipped negative in early November and has not recovered since.
For most of 2025, ETF activity served as a major source of liquidity—particularly during the July–September window when inflows surged and helped push BTC above $110k and ETH above $4,500.
But since November, the momentum has reversed sharply. Daily flows have been dominated by steady red bars, indicating sustained outflows and reduced participation from larger allocators.
Bitcoin ETFs face some of the heaviest outflows
Daily data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETF products recorded a net outflow of– $142.19 million today, extending a pattern of withdrawals seen throughout November and December.
Source: Glassnode
The total net assets of BTC ETFs have also dropped to $114.99 billion, down significantly from their summer peak.
The decline mirrors the fall in spot prices, with Bitcoin now trading around $88,351, unable to reclaim the $90k level despite multiple attempts.
The last meaningful wave of inflows occurred in mid-October, but since then, outflows have overwhelmed intermittent green spikes.
Ethereum ETFs show mixed short-term flows but a weakening trend
Ethereum ETFs saw $84.59 million in inflows today, but that single data point sits against a much broader backdrop of outflows.
Source: Glassnode
The 30-day SMA for ETH ETF flows is still firmly negative, confirming that recent buying has not been strong enough to reverse the wider trend.
The AUM of the ETH ETF stands at $18.20 billion, down from the high reached during the surge of inflows in August.
ETH’s price, now around $2,976, continues to drift lower as ETF demand softens and liquidity thins.
Liquidity contraction and year-end de-risking
On-chain and ETF metrics are aligning to show a consistent pattern:
Allocators have reduced exposure.Risk appetite remains muted.Summer’s strong inflow cycle has fully unwound.
Much of this cooling can be attributed to year-end rebalancing by funds, weaker macroeconomic liquidity, and the fading post-ETF approval euphoria that drove inflows earlier in the year.
The current environment resembles previous phases where institutional investors stepped back temporarily before repositioning once volatility stabilised.
What this means for BTC and ETH now
Both assets remain highly sensitive to ETF flows. With sustained outflows and shrinking AUM across both sets of products:
Upside momentum remains limitedPrices may trade sideways until demand returnsAny future positive catalyst, macro or regulatory, could spark renewed inflows
For now, the data signals a cooling period rather than structural rejection.
However, with ETF flows acting as crypto’s dominant liquidity driver in 2025, a shift back into positive territory will be essential for any strong recovery in early 2026.
$BTC $ETH
The trend reflects a broader liquidity contraction across crypto markets, as risk appetite falls and allocators take a more cautious stance heading into year-end.
ETF flows turn negative across BTC and ETH
Glassnode’s latest readings show that the 30-day moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs flipped negative in early November and has not recovered since.
For most of 2025, ETF activity served as a major source of liquidity—particularly during the July–September window when inflows surged and helped push BTC above $110k and ETH above $4,500.
But since November, the momentum has reversed sharply. Daily flows have been dominated by steady red bars, indicating sustained outflows and reduced participation from larger allocators.
Bitcoin ETFs face some of the heaviest outflows
Daily data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETF products recorded a net outflow of– $142.19 million today, extending a pattern of withdrawals seen throughout November and December.
Source: Glassnode
The total net assets of BTC ETFs have also dropped to $114.99 billion, down significantly from their summer peak.
The decline mirrors the fall in spot prices, with Bitcoin now trading around $88,351, unable to reclaim the $90k level despite multiple attempts.
The last meaningful wave of inflows occurred in mid-October, but since then, outflows have overwhelmed intermittent green spikes.
Ethereum ETFs show mixed short-term flows but a weakening trend
Ethereum ETFs saw $84.59 million in inflows today, but that single data point sits against a much broader backdrop of outflows.
Source: Glassnode
The 30-day SMA for ETH ETF flows is still firmly negative, confirming that recent buying has not been strong enough to reverse the wider trend.
The AUM of the ETH ETF stands at $18.20 billion, down from the high reached during the surge of inflows in August.
ETH’s price, now around $2,976, continues to drift lower as ETF demand softens and liquidity thins.
Liquidity contraction and year-end de-risking
On-chain and ETF metrics are aligning to show a consistent pattern:
Allocators have reduced exposure.Risk appetite remains muted.Summer’s strong inflow cycle has fully unwound.
Much of this cooling can be attributed to year-end rebalancing by funds, weaker macroeconomic liquidity, and the fading post-ETF approval euphoria that drove inflows earlier in the year.
The current environment resembles previous phases where institutional investors stepped back temporarily before repositioning once volatility stabilised.
What this means for BTC and ETH now
Both assets remain highly sensitive to ETF flows. With sustained outflows and shrinking AUM across both sets of products:
Upside momentum remains limitedPrices may trade sideways until demand returnsAny future positive catalyst, macro or regulatory, could spark renewed inflows
For now, the data signals a cooling period rather than structural rejection.
However, with ETF flows acting as crypto’s dominant liquidity driver in 2025, a shift back into positive territory will be essential for any strong recovery in early 2026.
$BTC $ETH
原文参照
ステーブルコインが取引所を離れている – トレーダーはディップを買っていません
ステーブルコインはこのサイクルで最も速いペースで暗号取引所から移動しています。資本を働かせる代わりに、投資家は待つことを選んでいます。
これは、ステーブルコイン供給が成長し続け、主にアメリカの財務省証券によって裏付けられている中でも発生しています。誰もが流動性を保っていますが、市場条件が改善するまで控えています。
トレーダーは一歩引いています
ステーブルコインが引き出される速度は、短期的なリスクの食欲の低下を引き起こしました。
ビットコインの修正はさらに進み（現在は10月初旬の高値から約36%下落）、トレーダーはレバレッジを解消しています。オープンインタレストは40%以上減少しました。
これは、ステーブルコイン供給が成長し続け、主にアメリカの財務省証券によって裏付けられている中でも発生しています。誰もが流動性を保っていますが、市場条件が改善するまで控えています。
トレーダーは一歩引いています
ステーブルコインが引き出される速度は、短期的なリスクの食欲の低下を引き起こしました。
ビットコインの修正はさらに進み（現在は10月初旬の高値から約36%下落）、トレーダーはレバレッジを解消しています。オープンインタレストは40%以上減少しました。
原文参照
グレースケール：資産のトークン化は2030年までに1,000倍に成長する可能性があります。
実資産トークン化（RWA）は、金融機関による採用が加速する中で重要な岐路に近づいています。グレースケールによると、この分野は2030年までに1,000倍にスケールアップする可能性があり、世界の資本市場のコアコンポーネントとなるでしょう。
グレースケールの「デジタル資産見通し2026」レポートでは、トークン化が「転換点」に入ったことが述べられており、技術インフラと法的枠組みが徐々に整いつつあるとのことです。現在は規模が控えめですが、世界の株式市場と債券市場におけるトークン化された資産の低い割合は、潜在能力の限界ではなく、採用の初期段階を反映しています。ますます多くの組織が、資産をブロックチェーン上で直接発行、決済、管理することを長期的な戦略として捉えています。
グレースケールは、トークン化の成長が基盤となるブロックチェーンに価値を追加するだけでなく、アプリケーション、データ、および支援インフラ層のエコシステムを推進すると主張しています。イーサリアム、BNBチェーン、ソラナは、高い流動性と安定性により現在リーディングネットワークとされていますが、この順序は時間とともに変わる可能性があります。
さらに、チェーンリンクは、機関規模のトークン化アプリケーションのためにデータとインフラを接続する役割により、有利な位置にあると考えられています。全体として、グレースケールはトークン化をブロックチェーンの実用的なアプリケーションと見なしており、大規模な金融機関のコスト最適化、運用効率の向上、および資産へのアクセス拡大のニーズに合致しています。
実資産トークン化（RWA）は、金融機関による採用が加速する中で重要な岐路に近づいています。グレースケールによると、この分野は2030年までに1,000倍にスケールアップする可能性があり、世界の資本市場のコアコンポーネントとなるでしょう。
グレースケールの「デジタル資産見通し2026」レポートでは、トークン化が「転換点」に入ったことが述べられており、技術インフラと法的枠組みが徐々に整いつつあるとのことです。現在は規模が控えめですが、世界の株式市場と債券市場におけるトークン化された資産の低い割合は、潜在能力の限界ではなく、採用の初期段階を反映しています。ますます多くの組織が、資産をブロックチェーン上で直接発行、決済、管理することを長期的な戦略として捉えています。
グレースケールは、トークン化の成長が基盤となるブロックチェーンに価値を追加するだけでなく、アプリケーション、データ、および支援インフラ層のエコシステムを推進すると主張しています。イーサリアム、BNBチェーン、ソラナは、高い流動性と安定性により現在リーディングネットワークとされていますが、この順序は時間とともに変わる可能性があります。
さらに、チェーンリンクは、機関規模のトークン化アプリケーションのためにデータとインフラを接続する役割により、有利な位置にあると考えられています。全体として、グレースケールはトークン化をブロックチェーンの実用的なアプリケーションと見なしており、大規模な金融機関のコスト最適化、運用効率の向上、および資産へのアクセス拡大のニーズに合致しています。
翻訳
$SOL Price Prediction 2026
Solana (SOL) is trading below its moving averages and has the potential to fall to the $95 support zone.
Bulls are expected to strongly defend the $95 mark; however, any recovery will likely face selling pressure at the moving averages. A sharp reversal from this area would reflect negative sentiment. In that case, bears would continue to try to push the SOL/USDT pair below $95. If successful, the price could fall further to $80, or even $50.
Conversely, if the SOL price bounces and breaks through the moving averages, this suggests the possibility of sideways movement within the $95-$260 range for a few more weeks. The next rally could begin when the price closes above $260, opening the possibility of a strong surge to $425.
Solana (SOL) is trading below its moving averages and has the potential to fall to the $95 support zone.
Bulls are expected to strongly defend the $95 mark; however, any recovery will likely face selling pressure at the moving averages. A sharp reversal from this area would reflect negative sentiment. In that case, bears would continue to try to push the SOL/USDT pair below $95. If successful, the price could fall further to $80, or even $50.
Conversely, if the SOL price bounces and breaks through the moving averages, this suggests the possibility of sideways movement within the $95-$260 range for a few more weeks. The next rally could begin when the price closes above $260, opening the possibility of a strong surge to $425.
原文参照
$BNB 価格予測 2026
BNB (BNB) は現在移動平均の間で変動しており、供給と需要が比較的バランスが取れていることを示しています。
もし価格が$775の50週SMAを下回ると、強気派が弱気派に圧倒されたことを示すでしょう。その場合、BNBの価格は$500の強いサポートゾーンまで急落する可能性があり、そこで強気派は$400-$500の範囲を強く守ることが期待されています。
通常、急激な下落の後、価格は新しいトレンドを確立する前に横ばいで統合されます。これは2022年5月から2024年2月までの期間と類似しています。歴史が繰り返されるなら、BNB/USDTペアは一定期間$500-$930の範囲で変動する可能性があります。
逆に、価格が20週EMAを上回ると、強気派が再びコントロールを取り戻したことを示します。その場合、価格は$1,182に上昇し、最終的には$1,375の過去最高値に達する可能性があります。
BNB (BNB) は現在移動平均の間で変動しており、供給と需要が比較的バランスが取れていることを示しています。
もし価格が$775の50週SMAを下回ると、強気派が弱気派に圧倒されたことを示すでしょう。その場合、BNBの価格は$500の強いサポートゾーンまで急落する可能性があり、そこで強気派は$400-$500の範囲を強く守ることが期待されています。
通常、急激な下落の後、価格は新しいトレンドを確立する前に横ばいで統合されます。これは2022年5月から2024年2月までの期間と類似しています。歴史が繰り返されるなら、BNB/USDTペアは一定期間$500-$930の範囲で変動する可能性があります。
逆に、価格が20週EMAを上回ると、強気派が再びコントロールを取り戻したことを示します。その場合、価格は$1,182に上昇し、最終的には$1,375の過去最高値に達する可能性があります。
原文参照
$ETH 価格予測 2026
イーサ（ETH）は8月に$4,868のレジスタンスゾーンを突破しましたが、このブレイクアウトは後にブルトラップであることが確認されました。
ETHの価格は$3,070の50週間単純移動平均（SMA）を下回り、ベアが支配していることを示しています。バイヤーはリバウンドを試みましたが、20週間EMA（$3,454）で継続的に売り圧力に直面しています。
ETHは現在$2,623でサポートを持っています。このレベルが破られれば、ETH/USDTペアは急落して$2,111、次に$1,600になる可能性があります。ブルは$1,600 – $1,385の範囲を激しく守ると予想されています。
最初のポジティブなサインは、20週間EMAを超えてクローズすることで、ベアの弱体化を示します。その時点で、価格は$4,000に向かう可能性があり、次に$4,956に向かう可能性があります。$4,956を超えると、ETHは$6,194に急上昇し、さらに$9,030に達する可能性があります。
イーサ（ETH）は8月に$4,868のレジスタンスゾーンを突破しましたが、このブレイクアウトは後にブルトラップであることが確認されました。
ETHの価格は$3,070の50週間単純移動平均（SMA）を下回り、ベアが支配していることを示しています。バイヤーはリバウンドを試みましたが、20週間EMA（$3,454）で継続的に売り圧力に直面しています。
ETHは現在$2,623でサポートを持っています。このレベルが破られれば、ETH/USDTペアは急落して$2,111、次に$1,600になる可能性があります。ブルは$1,600 – $1,385の範囲を激しく守ると予想されています。
最初のポジティブなサインは、20週間EMAを超えてクローズすることで、ベアの弱体化を示します。その時点で、価格は$4,000に向かう可能性があり、次に$4,956に向かう可能性があります。$4,956を超えると、ETHは$6,194に急上昇し、さらに$9,030に達する可能性があります。
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