🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS
Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump.
For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been the loudest voice pushing de-dollarisation, dumping USD assets and encouraging others to do the same. That narrative fueled the entire “death of the dollar” trade.
A bunch of countries followed, slashing Treasury holdings and piling into gold and silver, which is why the DXY bled lower and precious metals went parabolic.
But if Russia flips back to the dollar, that whole trade could collapse overnight.
Higher USD demand would strengthen the dollar, and a strong dollar has always been toxic for commodities.
Metals would take the biggest hit. The entire “currency debasement hedge” story falls apart.
Equities and crypto would feel pain too, but probably short-lived.
Why? A Russia–U.S. energy partnership would flood markets with supply, lower inflation, create a less hawkish Fed, and reduced uncertainty.
This would lower the odds of rate cuts, but clarity is rocket fuel for risk assets.
Remember, Bitcoin ripped higher in 2023 even with rate hikes and QT.
Stocks and crypto thrive on certainty. If this deal actually happens, it’s medium to long-l term bullish for both.
Gold and silver could be starting a multi-year bear market. 👀
February → Bear trap setting the stage March → Bitcoin breakout gains momentum April → Altcoins take the spotlight May → New all-time high around $215K June → Bull trap catches late buyers July → Heavy liquidation wave August → Bear market officially begins
For over a decade, I’ve consistently called major market tops and bottoms.
I was among the few who identified the October top — and I’ll do it again.
Yesterday, it was reported that Russia is considering moving back to the US dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump.
In the past 3–4 years, Russia has strongly advocated reducing reliance on the USD, fueling the major "de-dollarization trade" narrative.
Several other countries have followed suit, reducing exposure to dollar assets — a key reason for the DXY's decline.
The massive rally in gold and silver has also been driven by this trend, as countries dump Treasuries and buy precious metals.
But now this trade may be over.
Russia is now planning to shift toward a dollar-based settlement system, which would boost USD demand.
A stronger USD has historically been bearish for assets, so metals, equities, and crypto will suffer.
Metals will be hit hardest, as a strong USD undermines the debasement trade narrative.
For equities and crypto, it will be bearish but likely not for long.
With more energy supply entering markets after a Russia–US partnership, inflation will drop and the Fed will become less hawkish.
This reduces the odds of monetary easing, but at least removes Fed uncertainty.
Remember, BTC rose in 2023 despite Fed rate hikes and QT.
Risk-on assets love certainty — if this deal is finalized, it will be mid- to long-term bullish for stocks and crypto.
Gold and silver, however, could enter a multi-year downtrend.