🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — September 11, 2026 🌐 TOP HEADLINES OF THE DAY The August CPI report was released today — it came exactly in line with expectations at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year (CPI had risen 0.1% month-over-month in July); more than one-third of the increase was driven by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices, while housing costs also rose 0.3%, marking their highest increase in three months Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, as hot as only 9 of 73 economists had forecast — a surge in wireless telephone services, along with increases ranging from airline fares and used vehicles to education prices, contributed to the reading; annual core CPI came in at 2.4%, in line with expectations, and remained at its lowest level since spring 2021 Computer software and accessories recorded a record annual increase of 25.4% — interpreted as the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom showing up in price data; economists said the report strengthens the case for the Fed to raise rates on September 16, while the “share of categories showing elevated increases” metric emphasized by Chair Warsh did not retreat this month The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.97% — with four days remaining before the Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout period, the market is largely forced to price the decision on its own According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike on September 16 is fluctuating between 62% and 69%; BTC, which held above $81,000 last week, fell to a two-week low this morning ahead of CPI Spot Ethereum ETFs saw only $29 million in outflows today, a much calmer reaction compared with BTC; gold is heading toward its third consecutive weekly decline and fell below its 200-day moving average ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN BTC opened at $76,536 this morning, down 2.2% from yesterday’s opening — at a two-week low and down approximately 6% on the week. Immediately after the CPI release, BTC sharply fell to $76,500, then recovered into the $77,500-$78,000 range once it became clear that the data was largely in line with expectations. The market reaction was paradoxical: with inflation still elevated and last week’s strong employment data showing no signs of cooling, the initial reaction was to assume a rate hike was effectively certain — yet the data itself was not hawkish, but exactly at expectations. Holding above $76,800 could open the door to a move toward the $80,000-$83,000 range if CPI comes in soft; slipping below this level could bring the $73,000 area into focus. Following three consecutive weeks of strong ETF inflows, this decline is testing whether the market is experiencing a pause or the beginning of a trend reversal. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH remained in the $2,468-$2,500 range and reacted more calmly than BTC, with limited daily movement; the $29 million outflow from spot ETH ETFs remained well below the volatility seen in institutional flows into BTC. Solana is holding around $100, down 2.5% on the day; the 20-day moving average at $98.79 is being watched as critical support — losing this level could open the way toward $90. XRP fell to $1.36. Gold also fell below its 200-day moving average, losing some of its appeal as a geopolitical hedge amid the same rate uncertainty weighing on the crypto market. ━━━ 📋 KEY CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS Economists assess that despite headline CPI coming in line with expectations, the unexpectedly hot core inflation reading and the lack of decline in Warsh’s “broad-based price increases” metric provide additional justification for a rate hike on September 16 With the Fed entering its four-day pre-meeting blackout period, the market will now head into the decision without receiving any new verbal guidance — meaning the decision will largely depend on the Fed’s internal assessment The September 15 CLARITY Act cloture vote remains the second critical agenda item alongside the FOMC decision this week, with the Democratic-Republican dispute (including the vertical integration provision) still unresolved ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Cheelee (CHEEL) September 13, 2026 Amount: ~$2.24 million (0.79% of circulating supply) — 6.42 million tokens Recipient profile: Reserve Fund $3.4M + Team $2.78M + Advisors $208K + Private Round $28K Selling pressure: 🟢 Unitas Labs (UP) September 12, 2026 Amount: ~$11.16 million (18.7% of market capitalization) Selling pressure: 🔴 Note: Extremely high relative to market capitalization — one of the month’s most dilutive individual unlocks. ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK AND UPCOMING EVENTS Following today’s CPI report, the market is now focused directly on the September 16 FOMC decision — CME FedWatch is pricing a 62%-69% probability of a rate hike; the Fed’s entry into its four-day blackout period means there will be no new verbal signal before the decision. Meanwhile, the September 15 CLARITY Act cloture vote will be the second critical test of the week — the probability of failure is still considered high. Whether BTC can hold above $76,800 is the most critical short-term technical threshold; if successful, a move toward the $80,000-$83,000 range is possible as post-CPI relief sets in, while failure would put the $73,000 area at risk. The UP and CHEEL unlocks on September 12-13 stand out as relatively small-scale test points amid the major macro agenda.
U.S. August CPI: Headline Calm, Core Hot — Rate Hike Probability Surges to 90%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the U.S. Department of Labor, released the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. While the headline figures came in line with expectations, the monthly increase in core inflation exceeded expectations and sharply pushed up rate-hike pricing in the market. The Numbers Annual CPI came in at 3.4%, in line with expectations (unrounded 3.397%; previous 3.365% — indicating a slight upward acceleration). Monthly CPI met consensus at 0.4%, but this represents a sharp acceleration from the previous month; the monthly increase in July was only 0.1% (unrounded 0.396% versus 0.074%). On the core side, the annual increase came in at 2.4%, in line with expectations and down from the previous 2.5%. However, the key figure was monthly core CPI: it came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% expectation (unrounded 0.318%; previous 0.215%). In other words, beneath the headline “in-line” picture, there is a clear signal that underlying price pressures have accelerated. Divergence in the Details: Housing Cools, Services and Energy Heat Up The critical point in the data is where the acceleration in core inflation came from. Housing actually provided some relief: owners’ equivalent rent (OER) fell to 0.2% (previously 0.3%), while rent of primary residence also declined to 0.2% (previously 0.3%). As the traditionally stickiest component of inflation, cooling housing would normally be a dovish signal. However, this relief was more than offset by the surge in services and energy. Supercore, which measures core services excluding housing, jumped 0.511% month-over-month, its highest level since January (previous 0.189%); annual Supercore also rose to 3.022% (previous 2.843%). This surge in Supercore, one of the measures the Fed watches most closely for underlying inflation, suggests that the core surprise was not temporary “goods-price” noise but rather persistent services-driven pressure. Energy was the main component pushing the headline higher: it rose 2.1% month-over-month (previous -1.5%), while gasoline alone jumped 3.9% (previous -2.9%) and accounted for 0.140 percentage points of the 0.4% headline increase by itself. Based on the trajectory, this contribution is expected to be much higher in September. Other notable moves included lodging away from home at +2.4% (previous -2.8%), airline fares at +2.7%, and wireless telephone services at +5.9%, the largest increase on record. Meanwhile, apparel at 0.0%, medical care services at -0.2%, and motor vehicle insurance at -0.8% remained on the offsetting side; on an annual basis, motor vehicle insurance fell 5.1%, its lowest level since November 2020, while health insurance stood at -8.5%. Real weekly earnings were slightly positive at +0.2% (previously 0.0%, revised to +0.1%). Markets Price in a Rate Hike: From 68% to 90% Before the report, markets were pricing a 68% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting and 43.7 basis points of hikes for the full year; USD/JPY stood at 154.01. Following the data, the initial reaction was direct dollar buying due to the hot core reading. On CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting initially jumped to 82% and climbed toward 90% as the session progressed. The market is now largely pricing in rates moving from the 3.50%-3.75% range to 3.75%-4.00% as effectively certain. The Waller Factor: “If It Comes in Hot, I’ll Consider a Hike” Behind this sharp repricing are not only the figures themselves, but also the fact that undecided votes within the Fed had been closely focused on this data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had drawn a clear line one week before the release: “If progress toward 2 continues, I would support holding rates at the current level; but if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.” Waller also said that the current level of interest rates was only “mildly restrictive” for demand and that there might not need to be much acceleration to “push” him toward a hike. The fact that core CPI, and especially Supercore, fit precisely into this definition of “hot” was interpreted as a development bringing undecided members such as Waller closer to the hawkish camp. Combined with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s message at Jackson Hole that “there has not been enough improvement in inflation, and we may have more work to do,” the rate-hike scenario has become the dominant one for markets. What Could the Fed Do? Two possibilities stand out at the meeting. The first, and now heavily priced scenario, is a 25-basis-point rate hike, likely balanced with a message that “this is not the beginning of a prolonged tightening campaign.” The second possibility is leaving rates unchanged while maintaining a “the fight against inflation is not over, we will move if necessary” tone — a “hawkish hold.” As a counterargument, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s camp argues that current inflation is an energy-driven supply shock and that, according to conventional theory, rates should not be raised in response to a supply shock; however, the surge in Supercore while housing cools strengthens the hawkish argument that the pressure is not purely supply-driven. Impact on Markets Dollar: The rise in the rate-hike probability to 90% provides strong support for the dollar. The initial reaction was direct dollar buying, with USD/JPY extending its move above 154. Rising yields, combined with the ECB’s hawkish rate hike, could keep the DXY elevated in the short term. Gold: Spot gold had fallen to a one-week low around $4,310 before the data amid pressure from rising yields and a stronger dollar. The hotter core reading and the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% represent short-term selling pressure for gold. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks such as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Brent trading above $108 continue to provide an offsetting factor by keeping safe-haven demand alive; if a hike takes place at the meeting and the Fed delivers a “one-and-done” message, a sharp rebound in gold remains on the table. Stocks: Wall Street was already under pressure for a fourth consecutive day ahead of the data due to rising oil prices and Treasury yields. The near-certainty of a hike could intensify the reaction in rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks; if yields surge significantly, the impact would be more visible in Nasdaq-heavy indexes. Cooling housing inflation is the only positive medium-term nuance, but in the short term, the direction is being determined by rate expectations. Crypto: Bitcoin and altcoins are among the most vulnerable segments in this environment. The rate-hike scenario, rising Treasury yields, and a strengthening dollar typically create a negative backdrop for crypto; the market, which is sensitive to risk appetite and dollar liquidity, is directly affected by weakening expectations for looser monetary policy. The acceleration in core and Supercore inflation pushes the early rate-cut scenario that the crypto market had been trying to price in even further into the future. Until the meeting, caution is warranted regarding volatility and sudden liquidations in leveraged positions. In Summary The August CPI was calm on the headline, but hot on core inflation and especially Supercore; that was the decisive factor for markets. While housing cooled, the prominence of services and energy pressures triggered Waller’s “if it comes in hot, I’ll hike” framework and pushed the rate-hike probability from 68% to 90%. All eyes are now on the FOMC decision on September 16; whether the Fed approves a 25-basis-point hike and the tone of its message will determine the direction of the dollar, gold, stocks, and crypto markets over the coming weeks. $BTC
Ethereum Classic (ETC): From Ethereum’s Fork to a Loss of More Than 90% in Value
Ethereum Classic (ETC) emerged following one of the most controversial splits in cryptocurrency history and remained in Ethereum’s shadow for years. Once at the center of major debates over the future of the Ethereum ecosystem, ETC returned to a market capitalization of billions of dollars during the 2021 bull market. However, the sharp decline that followed left a significant portion of investors facing substantial losses. Today, although Ethereum Classic remains an operating blockchain, its price is still far below its previous peak. What Is Ethereum Classic? Ethereum Classic emerged in 2016 following a major attack on the Ethereum blockchain. At the time, a decentralized investment project called The DAO, which operated on Ethereum, was attacked, and approximately 3.6 million ETH came under the attacker’s control. Following the incident, the Ethereum community made a controversial decision. The majority supported a hard fork that would alter specific transactions in the blockchain’s history in order to reverse the effects of the attack and recover the stolen funds. However, not everyone in the community accepted the decision. The group that argued blockchain transactions should remain immutable continued on the original chain. This original chain later became known as Ethereum Classic. The new chain continued under the name Ethereum, as we know it today. The “Code Is Law” Philosophy Ethereum Classic’s core identity was largely built around the “Code Is Law” philosophy. This approach argued that the outcomes of transactions on a blockchain should not be altered afterward. Therefore, from the perspective of the Ethereum Classic community, the 2016 DAO attack was not merely a hack, but also a major philosophical debate over how far the fundamental principles of blockchain technology should be taken. For this reason, ETC became more than simply an alternative blockchain that split from Ethereum; it became the product of one of the most important ideological divisions in Ethereum’s history. How Did ETC’s Price Explode? Ethereum Classic remained well behind Ethereum for years. However, during the major bull wave that swept through the crypto market in 2021, ETC also experienced an extraordinary rally. ETC, which was trading at around $5 in early 2021, surged to above $170 in May. This move represented an increase of more than 3,000% within just a few months. Ethereum Classic’s market capitalization also reached billions of dollars during this period. While some investors viewed ETC as the older and more “pure” version of Ethereum, others considered the rally largely speculative. Ethereum’s Merge Put ETC Back in the Spotlight Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake was also a major turning point for Ethereum Classic. Following The Merge in 2022, Ethereum mining came to an end. This development raised the possibility that Ethereum’s Proof-of-Work miners could move to alternative networks. Because Ethereum Classic was one of the Proof-of-Work networks technically closest to Ethereum, expectations emerged that miners could migrate to ETC. These expectations triggered another rally in ETC’s price. However, the anticipated sustained growth did not materialize. Major Security Issues One of Ethereum Classic’s biggest problems has also been the 51% attacks it experienced in the past. In 2019, the Ethereum Classic network was hit by a major 51% attack. In 2020, the network faced multiple additional 51% attacks. A 51% attack occurs when an actor controls the majority of a blockchain network’s hashing power and can reorganize certain transactions. Such attacks can raise serious concerns about the security and decentralization of a blockchain. The attacks Ethereum Classic experienced in the past also damaged the project’s reputation. Why Has Ethereum Classic Fallen Behind Ethereum? One of Ethereum Classic’s biggest disadvantages has been the widening development gap between it and Ethereum. While Ethereum has evolved into a massive ecosystem encompassing DeFi, NFTs, stablecoins, Layer-2 networks, and smart contract ecosystems, Ethereum Classic has remained home to a much smaller ecosystem. As the number of developers and users on Ethereum grew, the gap between the two networks continued to widen. Although one of ETC’s primary use cases remains its role as a Proof-of-Work-based smart contract blockchain, this sector has become highly competitive. A Major Disappointment for Investors Ethereum Classic’s rise above $170 in 2021 created expectations among investors for significantly higher prices. However, following its peak, ETC entered a prolonged downtrend. The price fell by more than 90% from its peak. This resulted in major losses, particularly for investors who purchased ETC after following its 2021 rally. Once viewed by some as the “older version” of Ethereum that could rise again, ETC struggled in the following years to close the gap with Ethereum. Is Ethereum Classic Completely Finished? No. Ethereum Classic remains an operating blockchain network today. It continues to use a Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism and supports smart contracts. Therefore, ETC’s story is not one of a cryptocurrency that has completely disappeared. The real problem is that a project originating from the same roots as Ethereum has, over the years, fallen far behind Ethereum in terms of market capitalization, developer ecosystem, use cases, and user interest. Conclusion Ethereum Classic’s story represents one of the most interesting forks in cryptocurrency history. The ideological split triggered by a DAO attack caused Ethereum and Ethereum Classic to go their separate ways as two different blockchains. Years later, ETC experienced an extraordinary rally during the 2021 bull market, climbing above $170. However, this rally did not last. The sharp decline that followed caused investors who bought near the peak to suffer substantial losses. Although Ethereum Classic is still alive today, the story that began as Ethereum’s original chain has gradually evolved into an increasingly wide gap in competition and use cases compared with Ethereum. And the biggest question surrounding ETC’s story remains the same: Will Ethereum Classic, which emerged to preserve blockchain immutability, continue to fall behind Ethereum in the technology race?
Does anyone remember the Luna Coin crash between May 8–12, 2022? $65–68 → $30 → $17 → $ 1 → $0.00005 If this had been an upward move instead of a decline, the magnitude of the move would have been equivalent to a 136 million% increase. The Terra-LUNA collapse wiped out roughly $50–60 billion in market value and triggered a much broader wave of selling across the crypto market. Approximately 4 years, 3 months, and 28 days have passed since May 12, 2022. $LUNC $USTC
🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — SEPTEMBER 9, 2026 🌐 TOP STORIES OF THE DAY Zcash (ZEC) climbed as high as $1,290 today in a rally fueled by Grayscale’s ZCSH ETF, reaching its highest level since November 2016 — gaining 57% over the past week, more than 138% over the past month, and approximately 2,400% over the past year; ZCSH options also began trading on the NYSE, while the ETF’s net assets reached $463 million The Liquid Network attacker returned 3,400 BTC — approximately 85% of the 4,000 BTC withdrawn — to the federation address on September 7; 598.5 BTC (~$47 million) remains unrecovered and the network is still suspended — Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet stated that retaining the remaining amount is inconsistent with a genuine “white-hat” bug bounty agreement and is closer to “extortion” The U.S.-Iran conflict continued yesterday with attacks from both sides; oil prices approached $100 per barrel, while expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike are strengthening one week before the Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting BTC formed a “golden cross” pattern this week — the short-term moving average crossing above the long-term moving average, improving the trend structure but considered a lagging signal ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN BTC opened this morning at $78,446, down 0.8% from yesterday’s open; during the morning, it recovered toward the $78,800–$78,900 range. The price remains tightly trapped around $78,600 and below the $79,500 resistance — a four-hour close above this level, as highlighted by one trader, could reopen the path toward the $82,000 area; otherwise, the $70,500 level followed by the $67,200 range remains at risk. Despite the golden cross formation, a breakout has not yet been confirmed; ETF demand remains strong, while there is limited evidence of increasing selling pressure from large wallets. Yesterday, BTC declined from $79,113 to $78,455 (~0.8%), while the September 8 intraday range remained between $77,666 and $79,475. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH opened this morning at $2,485, down 0.2% from yesterday. Zcash remains the standout cryptocurrency of the week — the ETF catalyst combined with a sharp increase in open interest indicates that the rally is being driven not only by spot buying but also by growing derivatives-market interest; analysts view the $1,435–$1,500 range as the next test zone. The broader market remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions related to Iran and rising oil prices. ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Liquid Network’s federation reserve has fallen from approximately 4,200 BTC before the incident to around 197 BTC; Blockstream stated that it has deployed the patched software and that federation members are preparing for a coordinated restart, but there is still no publicly announced timeline for the return of normal peg-out operations Analysts believe the incident could trigger new independent audits across the industry focusing on how total-supply verification is performed in sidechain and bridge architectures The combination of Zcash’s privacy-pool technology and institutional ETF demand continues to set a precedent for the integration of privacy-focused crypto assets into regulated products ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Linea (LINEA) September 10, 2026 Amount: ~$2.75 million (3% of circulating supply) — 960.13 million tokens Recipient profile: Linea Consortium (long-term alignment) + Linea Consortium (Ignition), split equally Selling pressure: 🟡 Aptos (APT) September 11, 2026 Amount: ~$7.09 million (0.65% of circulating supply) — 11.31 million tokens Selling pressure: 🟡 ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS The most critical event of the week is the August CPI report on September 11 — following the strong NFP, the market is now pricing the possibility of a rate hike, and a hot CPI reading could reinforce this scenario and create additional pressure on BTC ahead of the FOMC decision on September 15–16. The fate of the 598.5 BTC still unrecovered from the Liquid Network incident and the timeline for the network’s reopening will be closely monitored in the short term; the impact of the conflict in Iran on oil prices also continues to complicate the inflation outlook. Whether BTC can break the $79,500 resistance and confirm the golden cross signal will be the week’s most critical technical test; failure could leave the $70,500–$67,200 range at risk. Zcash’s rally toward the $1,435–$1,500 target and the September 10–11 LINEA/APT unlocks stand out as separate but smaller-scale test points.
Security Alert Across Crypto Platforms: $3.63 Billion Lost to Cyberattacks
Despite the widespread adoption of security audits across the cryptocurrency industry, platforms remain vulnerable to cyberattacks. According to CoinGecko data, more than $3.63 billion in funds were lost between January 2025 and July 2026 due to attacks on crypto platforms and compromised credentials. The most striking point in the report is that a significant portion of the platforms that were attacked had previously undergone independent security audits. Why Are Security Audits Falling Short? According to CoinGecko’s report dated August 27, approximately 88% of the stolen funds and around 60% of the attacked platforms had undergone independent security audits. This suggests that traditional security audits alone may not be sufficient. The report notes that attackers often target vulnerabilities that fall outside the scope of standard audit processes. In other words, having a platform audited does not mean it is completely protected against real-time attacks or more sophisticated security vulnerabilities. In the crypto sector, access permissions, private keys, employee accounts, and operational processes are also among the major targets of attacks, alongside smart contract security. Bybit Suffered the Largest Loss The largest attack during the period covered by the report was the Bybit incident. In February 2025, approximately $1.4 billion worth of assets were stolen. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic assessed that the attack was linked to North Korean actors. KelpDAO ranked second with losses of $292 million, while Drift Protocol ranked third with losses of $285 million. The report stated that all three platforms had not immediately responded to CNBC’s requests for comment regarding the assessment. Passing an Audit Is Not a Guarantee of Security Security audits are considered an important control mechanism in the crypto market, particularly for DeFi protocols and smart contracts. However, recent attacks show that there can be a significant gap between the scope of an audit and the attack methods used in the real world. Considering that billions of dollars in assets are held across decentralized or semi-centralized systems, relying solely on code audits as a security strategy carries significant risks. The $3.63 billion in losses demonstrates that security in the crypto industry cannot be built solely around “passing an audit.” Going forward, platforms will need to focus not only on smart contract vulnerabilities but also more heavily on private key management, access controls, employee accounts, and incident-response mechanisms. $BTC