◢ Re-poster

Kalshi Runs 87.6% of Crypto Prediction Market Volume; Sports Category at $33.5B in Q3

Kalshi dominated four of seven prediction market categories by volume in Q3 2026, according to @Bitwise Asset Management data from Allium covering July 1 to September 30, 2026.

In the crypto category, Kalshi held 87.6% market share on $12,401.4 million in total Q3 volume. In sports, Kalshi ran 65.4% of volume on $33,460.0 million, the largest single category in prediction markets by far. Kalshi also led others (93.4% on $6,306.3 million) and business (93.7% on $971.2 million).

Polymarket leads the politics category with 70.4% of $902.0 million in Q3 volume and weather/climate at 52.7% of $274.2 million.

Sports is now the dominant prediction market category by raw volume at $33.5 billion in Q3, dwarfing the combined volume of crypto, politics, and business. That composition matters for understanding where liquidity is actually concentrating in onchain prediction infrastructure.

@allencontrol signed a collaboration agreement with @EchodyneCorp to develop, demo and deploy integrated counter-UAS systems (Echodyne radar data feeding Bullfrog weapon station)

https://www.unmannedairspace.info/counter-uas-systems-and-policies/echodyne-and-allen-control-systems-ink-c-uas-collaboration-deal/

Only ~2% of Mortgage Market Refinanceable at Prevailing Rates; Agency MBS Posted -3.38% in September, Fourth-Worst Month Since 2000

The mortgage market is structurally locked up. By quarter-end September 30, 2026, only approximately 2% of the mortgage market was refinanceable at prevailing rates. That suppresses prepayment risk across much of the coupon stack and reinforces the lock-in dynamic DoubleLine describes across residential credit broadly.

Agency MBS bore the brunt of Q3's rate move. The @business US MBS Index returned negative 4.25% for the quarter, underperforming Treasuries, which returned negative 3.04%. September alone was negative 3.38%, the fourth-worst monthly total return for Agency MBS since 2000.

The pressure was rate and volatility driven, not credit. Current-coupon spreads widened approximately 18 basis points during the quarter as markets adjusted to a higher path for interest rates.

@DLineCap notes the repricing improved the opportunity set. Higher yields, wider spreads and the 2% refinanceable market together reduce prepayment risk while improving carry and relative value versus corporate bonds. Agency MBS gross issuance is projected at approximately $1.3 trillion for 2026, with net issuance of approximately $164 billion.

The biggest area for improvement for @grok bot is its memory.

A solvable problem, but it’s pretty rough right now.

Hyperscaler RPOs Hit More Than USD 2 Trillion; Amazon Alone at USD 627bn

The remaining performance obligations (RPOs) across Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft now stand at more than USD 2 trillion, according to Iain Fulton at Amova Asset Management, citing company reports and @business July 2026 data. RPOs are contracted future revenues for services not yet delivered, so they represent hard commitments already on the books, not projections.

The chart breaks it down: Amazon is at USD 627.0bn, Microsoft at USD 519.5bn, and Alphabet at USD 364.0bn. All three lines show steep upward curves from 2022 onward.

The issue Fulton flags is that OpenAI and Anthropic account for a significant portion of that expected demand. Those LLM companies are not the hyperscalers, they do not generate the same cash flow, and they will need significant financing and substantial revenue growth over the next few years to honor those commitments. @GoldmanSachs research, cited in the note, puts the revenue requirement at USD 1 trillion, which Fulton calls an extremely ambitious assumption.

The practical implication: the RPOs are helping underpin earnings expectations across the AI hardware supply chain right now. If the LLM companies cannot fund themselves adequately heading into 2027 and 2028, the credit-risk transmission runs straight into the hyperscaler revenue line, and from there into the supply chain multiples built on those RPO-backed earnings.

GSプライムブック：上昇相場に向けマグニフィセント・セブンのネット・エクスポージャーが拡大、ヘッジファンド全体のネットは依然として極めて低水準

2026年10月5日時点のGSプライムブローカレッジのデータによると、ヘッジファンドはテクノロジー株への投資を増やし、マグニフィセント・セブンのネット・エクスポージャーを拡大させた一方、全体のネット・エクスポージャーは依然として極めて低水準で、センチメントは悲観的とされている。Rich Privorotsky氏が2026年10月7日に@GoldmanSachsで述べた。

このチャートは、2022年から2026年半ばまでの米国エクスポージャー総額（時価ベース）に占めるマグニフィセント・セブンの割合を、グロスとネットの両方で示している。グロスとネットの系列が表示されており、期間を通じてネットの系列はグロスを大きく下回っている。

Privorotsky氏の見立てでは、リスクは「明白で、十分に理解されている」。債券、ラッセル、欧州にとってポジショニング面での追い風は確かにあるが、「持続可能なエネルギー解決策がなければ」、それらが持続的に機能することはない。市場全体が大きく買い持ちというわけではない。買い増しが集中しているのは、特にマグニフィセント・セブン／テクノロジー株であり、ラッセルが苦戦する一方でS&Pとナスダックが底堅く推移した相場の動きとも一致している。

$CRWD just took out last week’s low

$XLU Utilities have already paid for the rate shock: ~14% relative underperformance since April and a de-rating from 13% P/E premium to parity

Utilities have taken the valuation hit first.

@morganstanley says European utilities underperformed the market by “~14% since April highs” and de-rated “from 13% premium to market P/E to parity.” Historically, utilities underperformed the market in “68% of periods of large upward moves in yields,” with a “median -3%,” and renewable and regulated names saw “median -7%.”

The fundamental point is different from the price action. @morganstanley argues the debt stock is largely fixed rate, refinancing is staggered, and allowed returns and PPA prices showed pass-through in 2021-23.

So higher yields are mostly a multiple headwind, not an immediate EPS shock. If yields peak, long-duration utilities are the rebound expression. If yields keep rising and equities weaken, the defensive earnings profile matters more.

France and Italy face ~150% of GDP debt by 2040 absent policy change; France's challenge is structurally high spending, Italy's is high interest and weak growth

Under a no-policy-change scenario, @morganstanley's debt sustainability analysis simulations point to a similar destination for France and Italy but via different routes.

France's debt ratio could rise toward 150% of GDP by 2040. The underlying driver is structurally high expenditure. France was one of the few euro area countries failing to contain its primary deficits in the 2015-19 period, averaging a primary deficit of 1.3% over that stretch. Public spending at 57.3% of GDP in 2024 is already among the highest in the euro area, which averaged 49.5%.

Italy's trajectory is not materially different. @morganstanley projects Italy's debt ratio at around 150-160% of GDP by 2040, starting from around 137% today. The driver differs though: Italy has historically run primary surpluses, averaging 1.5% in 2015-19, and can return to them. The challenge is persistently high interest expenditure compounded by an already elevated debt stock and structurally weak growth.

Germany diverges. @morganstanley estimates the German debt ratio could rise by slightly more than 10pp between now and 2030, peaking below 80% of GDP from the low 60s currently, then returning toward primary surpluses in the early 2030s.

Spain looks better near term, with the deficit likely falling to around 2.4% of GDP in 2025 from 3.2% in 2024. But under no-policy-change, ageing pressures reverse the trajectory post-2030, pushing debt back to around 120-130% of GDP by 2040.

The four trajectories matter for rates because the supply and credit channels operate very differently across these starting points. The EU fiscal rules require debt ratios to decline with at least a 70% probability, meaning Italy, France, Belgium and Spain face required annual fiscal adjustments of around 50-60bp per year even under a seven-year plan.

@reflection_ai 🤝 @nvidia

Open source & open weight models ✅

https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/nvidia-in-talks-to-invest-further-in-reflection-ai-or-buy-it-ft-reports-20009206.htm

$AAOIが近づいてきている

"Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."

-- Sun Tzu

Acyclical Shocks, Not Wages, Are Keeping US Inflation Above 2% Target

The San Francisco Fed's decomposition of core PCE shows that acyclical components, those driven by industry-specific or structural factors rather than the broader business cycle, are primarily responsible for keeping inflation elevated.

Natixis economists Hodge and Aker cite this framework directly: cyclical components, which respond to monetary policy, are trending down, while acyclical components, sensitive to tariffs and energy shocks, are doing most of the lifting.

Hiking rates compresses cyclical price pressures. It does not address acyclical ones. If the SF Fed decomposition is right, additional tightening has limited marginal impact on the components currently holding inflation above target.

米国債を買うのは誰か？？ みんなだ。

9月の30年債入札では、海外勢が42％を落札。最近の平均は約12％。

一方、先週行われた直近の10年債入札では、ディーラーの落札割合はわずか2.5％。入札は、午後1時時点の水準を約1.7bp下回る利回りで決着した。

30年債入札でのディーラーの落札割合は6.8％と、記録上3番目に低い水準。利回りが日中高値から12bp低下した後、入札は市場予想どおりの水準で決着した。

ハイパースケーラー株は4カ月ぶりの高値を付けた一方、ハイパースケーラーのクレジット市場は追随せず……ロング勢が望むような乖離ではない

2026年第2四半期、米国の家計純資産は過去最高の185兆米ドルに達した一方、一般消費財株は年初来で約6％下落

でも、消費者はもうおしまいだって言われていたのを覚えているよね？

RTY/NDX比率のRSIは12.77、1985年以来の記録で8番目に低い水準

-- @btigresearch

均等加重型（RSP）のS&P 500と時価総額加重型（SPY）のS&P 500の比率は、これまでになく低くなっています。

テクノロジー株が現在、S&P 500の時価総額の40%超を占める—2022年10月の26%、2025年末の34%から上昇

米国最大の住宅ローン融資会社、ユナイテッド・ホールセール・モーゲージの終値が過去最低を記録した。同社株は9か月連続の月間下落となる見通しで、これは過去最長の連続下落記録となる。