Bitcoin’s U.S. demand signal turns negative for a record 40 days
The indicator last printed positive on Jan. 15. Its failure to fully recover after a Feb. 5 rebound suggests U.S. demand remains structurally absent rather than temporarily paused. The index measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average. Coinbase is widely used as a proxy for U.S. institutional and dollar-denominated flows, so a persistent negative reading means American investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world — either selling more aggressively or simply not showing up. The previous record was roughly 30 days of continuous negative premium during the October 2025 drawdown. That streak broke when a sharp bounce brought U.S. buyers back into the market. This time, the bounce came, as bitcoin recovered as much as 15% from its Feb. 5 intraday low. But the premium never followed. That divergence shows that while price recovered, the composition of demand didn't. Whatever buying drove bitcoin back above $62,000 came from outside U.S. hours, outside Coinbase's order books, or both. The one constructive read is that the premium has been gradually less negative since early February, creeping from -0.22% back toward -0.05%. It's improving, just not fast enough to flip positive, a threshold that historically coincides with sustained accumulation phases rather than relief rallies. Interestingly, Google searches for "bitcoin zero" in the U.S. hit record highs earlier this month, as CoinDesk reported, even as global search interest for the term remained flat. Both signals point to American investors specifically losing conviction at a pace that hasn't shown up elsewhere. #StrategyBTCPurchase #VitalikSells #BTCDropsbelow$63K #TrumpNewTariffs #TokenizedRealEstate
Adam Back's BSTR moving forward with public listing plans, hopes for April approval
Back remains optimistic despite the brutal price action in bitcoin and BTC treasury companies. BSTR intends to debut with 30,000 bitcoin on its balance sheet. Of that total, 25,000 coins will be contributed by Back and other founding shareholders. A further 5,000 BTC will be contributed in-kind by early investors. The merger plans were announced in the summer of 2025 amid a frenzy of hastily formed crypto treasury companies that hoped to mimic the success of Michael Saylor's Strategy. Since, though, the price of bitcoin has crashed to $63,000, and the performance of crypto treasury companies has been far worse, with many prominent ones vaporizing 90% or more of investor capital Speaking with CNBC on Monday, Back said a weaker bitcoin price could benefit BSTR ahead of its listing. Launching at a lower reference price would enable the company to accumulate more bitcoin at discounted levels, potentially strengthening its balance sheet and increasing long-term upside if market conditions improve. Addressing bitcoin’s recent decline, Back noted that it occurred despite what he characterized as a favorable regulatory backdrop in the United States. He attributed the pullback to broader macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainty, which have weighed on risk assets more broadly. Back added that bitcoin treasury companies play a supportive role in the market. Their core strategy centers on acquiring and holding bitcoin, though he acknowledged that the pace of accumulation typically slows during bear markets. Ultimately, he said, bitcoin treasury companies are taking bitcoin off the market, which is a long-term bullish catalyst. #VitalikSells #StrategyBTCPurchase #BTCDropsbelow$63K #TrumpNewTariffs #TokenizedRealEstate