As of February 1, 2026, the short answer is: The market is currently in a "pain phase," but most analysts do not believe the bull cycle is officially over.
We are witnessing a significant "weekend crash" right now, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 for the first time in months. While this feels like a disaster to many, the broader consensus is that this is a deep mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a multi-year bear market.
Here is the breakdown of why the market looks like it’s dying, and why some think it’s just a "reset."
📉 The "Bearish" Case: Why People are Panicking
The last 24–48 hours have been brutal. If you're looking at your portfolio and seeing red, here is why:
Massive Liquidations: Over $1.6 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in the last day, mostly affecting Bitcoin and Ethereum traders.
The "New Money" Stagnation: On-chain data shows that "Realized Cap" has flatlined. In plain English: new investors aren't piling in fast enough to absorb the selling pressure from "OG" holders who are finally taking profits.
The $80k Psychological Break: Breaking below the $80,000 support level has triggered a wave of "fear-based" selling. Bitcoin is currently down about 38% from its October 2025 high of $126,100.
🚀 The "Bullish" Case: Why the Cycle May Continue
Despite the carnage, institutional players and long-term analysts (like those at Standard Chartered and Bitwise) are still targeting $150k–$200k for Bitcoin later in 2026.
Historical "Shakeouts": 30–40% pullbacks are actually a hallmark of every major crypto bull run (2017 and 2021 both had them). They serve to "flush out" weak hands and over-leveraged gamblers.
Macro Tailwinds: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates throughout 2026.
The "Halving" Lag: Historically, the most explosive part of the cycle happens 18–24 months after a halving. Since the last halving was in April 2024, the "true" peak is mathematically projected for mid-to-late 2026.