CoinsProbe

Key Highlights
Bitcoin is up 5.35% over the past 30 days, as @alicharts suggests the macro bottom may already be in.The monthly TD Sequential has flashed a buy signal, the same indicator that marked Bitcoin's 2022 market bottom.Bitcoin is holding near the 50-month SMA, a level that has supported every major market bottom since 2014.The Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has dropped to -71, matching historically oversold levels seen at previous cycle bottoms.
Three separate monthly chart signals — each with a documented track record of appearing at Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms — are all firing simultaneously in the current environment. @alicharts has presented each one separately and the combined picture is the most comprehensive monthly bottom signal case Bitcoin has shown since the 2022 lows.
Bitcoin is trading at approximately $65,177 — up +1.59% in 24 hours and +5.35% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $1.3 trillion. Despite remaining -26% year-to-date from the $126,000 all-time high, three monthly timeframe signals are converging on the same conclusion that each prior instance of this alignment has produced: a durable macro bottom.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price on 07 Aug 2026 | Source: Coinmarketcap
Chart 1 — Monthly TD Sequential Buy Signal
The monthly TD Sequential has printed a buy signal “9” on Bitcoin’s current monthly chart — visible on the right side of the chart at the $64,309 current price level.
BTC Monthly Chart — TD Sequential | Source: @alicharts
Reading the chart:
The @alicharts monthly chart shows two prior TD Sequential signals on the same timeframe:
First “9” sell signal (visible at approximately 2024–2025) — appeared near Bitcoin’s peak before the current corrective phaseSecond “9” buy signal — appearing now at $64,309 — the signal that historically marks the transition from corrective phase to recovery
The 2022 precedent:
The most directly comparable prior instance on this chart is the 2022 monthly TD Sequential buy signal — which appeared at Bitcoin’s cycle low near $15,500–$16,000 and successfully identified what turned out to be the bottom of the 2022 bear market. What followed was the recovery that eventually took Bitcoin to its $126,000 all-time high.
The prior cycle returns documented on the chart:
The chart annotates the rallies that followed each prior comparable setup:
Cycle Rally from Bottom Early cycle (2011–2012)+28,737.21%2015 cycle+8,294.24%2019 cycle+1,967.94%2022–2023 cycle+675.66%Current (2026)Signal printing now at $64,309
Each successive cycle has produced a smaller percentage gain as Bitcoin’s market cap grows — but each has still produced extraordinary returns from the signal level. The current signal appearing at $64,309 does not predict the magnitude of the next move — it identifies the potential transition point, consistent with every prior instance.
Chart 2 — 50-Month SMA: Every Major Bottom Since 2014
The second chart from @alicharts focuses on a different monthly signal — Bitcoin’s relationship to its 50-month simple moving average (labelled as 200 SMA on the chart).
BTC Testing 50 MA Support | Source: @alicharts
Reading the chart:
The chart spans from 2016 to 2026, showing the 50-month SMA as a rising curved line beneath Bitcoin’s price. Black arrows mark each prior instance where Bitcoin’s price touched or tested this moving average — each of which represented a major buying opportunity:
Year Bitcoin Price at 50-Month SMA Touch What Followed~2015~$200–$300 2017 bull market~2019~$3,000–$4,000 2020–2021 bull market~2020~$5,000–$7,000 (COVID crash)Immediate recovery and ATH~2022~$17,000–$20,0002023–2026 bull market2026 (Current)~$64,309 Arrow marks current position
Bitcoin is currently trading near — and testing — the 50-month SMA for the first time since the 2022 cycle low. The current price of $64,309 sits approximately at this long-term moving average, with the chart’s most recent arrow pointing directly to the current position.
The significance:
Every prior touch of the 50-month SMA has preceded a sustained multi-year bull market — not a brief bounce, but a structural trend change that lasted months to years. The current test of this level in 2026 adds the longest-term moving average in Bitcoin’s analytical toolkit to the list of signals pointing toward the same conclusion.
Chart 3 — Chande Momentum Oscillator Resets to -71
The third signal identified by @alicharts is the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) resetting to -71 on the monthly chart — the most extreme oversold reading visible on the current chart.
Reading the chart:
The @alicharts monthly chart shows the ChandeMO (lower panel) oscillating between approximately +100 (extremely overbought) and -71 (extremely oversold) across Bitcoin’s full cycle history. The current reading at -71 — marked by the arrow at Jun ’26 — is the deepest oversold reading shown on the chart.
BTC Monthly Chart — ChandeMO | Source: @alicharts
The four prior extreme lows:
Each prior time the ChandeMO reached comparable extreme readings (marked by the dotted lines on the chart), it coincided with major Bitcoin cycle bottoms:
Period Chande MO Reading Bitcoin BottomMar 2015Extreme low2015 cycle bottom Jan 2019Extreme low2018–2019 cycle bottom Dec 2022Extreme low2022 cycle bottom Jun 2026-71Current — deepest reading shown
The current -71 reading is visually the most extreme on the chart — even deeper than the prior instances — suggesting the current momentum exhaustion on the monthly timeframe is historically unprecedented in its severity.
Why extreme CMO readings matter:
The Chande Momentum Oscillator measures the sum of recent gains minus recent losses relative to total movement — when it reaches extreme negative levels, it signals that bearish momentum has been so dominant and sustained that it has historically exhausted itself and preceded a reversal. At -71 on the monthly timeframe, the indicator is saying that twelve months of momentum data shows overwhelming selling — the same reading that has appeared before every major Bitcoin recovery.
Three Signals — One Conclusion
@alicharts’ analysis presents three independent monthly signals — each measured differently, each with its own historical track record — all firing simultaneously:
Signal Reading Historical Precedent Monthly TD Sequential Buy “9” at $64,309Identified 2022 bottom50-Month SMA Price testing the level Every major bottom since 2014ChandeMO-71 (extreme low)2015, 2019, 2022 bottoms
The consolidation range @alicharts identifies for the near term: $60,000–$67,000 — acknowledging that even with these signals present, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within this range before the next directional move becomes clear.
The Broader Signal Convergence
These three monthly signals from @alicharts add to the growing body of convergent bottom signals we have been tracking throughout July and August 2026 — including the MVRV at the 5th percentile, the Realized Profit vs Loss crossover approaching, the 147-day weekly bullish divergence, Bitcoin August Price Prediction, and the whale vs retail divergence with Santiment confirming accumulation.
Every independent analytical framework applied to Bitcoin’s current situation is arriving at the same conclusion — the current price zone has historically been where macro bottoms form.
Bottom Line
Three separate monthly signals — a TD Sequential buy, a 50-month SMA test, and a ChandeMO at -71 — are all firing simultaneously on Bitcoin’s highest timeframe chart. Each signal has a documented track record of appearing at Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms: 2015, 2019, and 2022. Their simultaneous appearance in June–August 2026 at approximately $64,000 creates the most concentrated monthly signal convergence Bitcoin has shown since the 2022 lows.
The near-term consolidation range of $60,000–$67,000 remains the battleground. Whether the macro bottom is already in — or whether one final move lower completes the bottom structure — these three monthly signals will be the framework analysts reference when the next major directional move confirms.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Canton Coin (CC) is down 9.66% in 24 hours and 24.19% over the past 7 days.CC broke down from a rising wedge near $0.15, coinciding with its 200-day moving average — a classic bearish breakdown signal.The token has already fallen roughly 47% from its local top near $0.17, mirroring a fractal seen in EdgeX (EDGE) earlier in June 2026.If the bearish fractal plays out fully, the next major support sits at $0.05862 — approximately 33% below current prices.The bearish outlook only invalidates on a sustained reclaim of the 200-day MA at $0.1493.
Canton Coin (CC) is flashing one of the more technically defined bearish setups in the current altcoin market — a rising wedge breakdown that closely mirrors the structure EdgeX (EDGE) printed before its 75% collapse in June 2026. With CC already down 47% from its local top and showing no confirmed signs of reversal, the fractal comparison is drawing serious attention from technical traders.
CC is currently trading at approximately $0.09050, down 9.66% in the last 24 hours and 24.19% over the past 7 days. The token carries a market capitalization of around $3.55 billion.
Canton (CC) Price on 07 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
What Is Canton Coin (CC)?
Canton is the native utility token of the Canton Network, a privacy-focused Layer-1 blockchain built specifically for institutional finance and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
The network is designed to bridge traditional finance (TradFi) and blockchain infrastructure, with a core emphasis on compliance, configurable privacy, and institutional-grade interoperability. These characteristics place Canton in a distinct category from consumer-facing blockchains — it is purpose-built for the segment of the market where regulatory alignment and privacy controls are non-negotiable requirements.
Within the network, CC serves two primary functions: paying network fees (which are subsequently burned) and rewarding participants under a burn-mint equilibrium model — a tokenomics structure designed to create natural supply regulation tied to actual network usage.
Bearish Fractal — CC Mirrors the EdgeX (EDGE) Collapse
Our chart comparison, based on insights from market analyst @Divergent_XBT (X), suggests that Canton Coin (CC) is following a bearish fractal similar to EdgeX (EDGE).
The EDGE Precedent
In June 2026, EDGE broke down from a rising wedge pattern — a bearish technical structure characterized by price making higher highs and higher lows within converging trendlines, before failing to sustain the upward trajectory and reversing sharply. Following the wedge breakdown, EDGE collapsed by 75%, one of the sharper corrections seen among mid-cap altcoins in that period.
EDGE and Canton (CC) Fractal Chart-Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
CC’s Near-Identical Structure
Canton Coin has now printed what analysts describe as a nearly identical structure. CC broke below its own rising wedge near the $0.15 region — a level that also coincided with its 200-day moving average, adding technical weight to the breakdown signal.
The convergence of a wedge breakdown and a loss of the 200-day MA at the same price level is a meaningful bearish confirmation. The 200-day MA is widely watched by institutional and retail traders alike as the primary dividing line between long-term bullish and bearish trend structures.
Since that breakdown, CC has already fallen approximately 47%, sliding from around $0.17 to its current price near $0.0905 — tracking the early stages of the EDGE fractal with notable precision.
![Canton Coin CC Bearish Fractal Chart]
Potential Downside Target — $0.05862
If the fractal continues to develop in line with EDGE’s post-breakdown trajectory, the next major technical support for CC sits at $0.05862.
Reaching this level from current prices would represent:
Approximately 33% further downside from $0.0905An overall 65% correction from CC’s local top near $0.17
The $0.05862 level is the primary area where buyers would be expected to step in based on prior price structure — making it the key level to watch if CC continues declining without finding meaningful support before then.
Key Invalidation Level — $0.1493 (200-Day MA)
The bearish fractal thesis is not without a clear exit condition. The setup begins to weaken materially if CC reclaims its 200-day moving average, currently sitting at $0.1493.
A sustained move and daily close above $0.1493 would do two things simultaneously: invalidate the current bearish fractal structure and signal that buyers have absorbed the wedge breakdown — shifting the technical bias back toward bullish. From the current price of $0.0905, reclaiming the 200-day MA would require approximately +65% upside — a significant move that would need a meaningful catalyst or broad altcoin market recovery to materialize.
Until that reclaim happens, the path of least resistance on the chart remains to the downside.
Bearish Scenario: CC fails to reclaim $0.1493, fractal continues tracking EDGE’s post-breakdown move, price extends toward $0.05862 — a full 65% correction from the local top.
Bullish Scenario: CC stabilizes at current levels, builds a base above $0.0905, and stages a recovery toward the 200-day MA at $0.1493. A sustained reclaim of that level with volume would invalidate the bearish fractal and open the path toward prior wedge support turned resistance.
Bottom Line
Canton Coin is under clear and technically defined downward pressure. The rising wedge breakdown near $0.15 — which also marked the loss of the 200-day moving average — set up a fractal structure that closely mirrors the EDGE collapse from June 2026. With 47% already surrendered from the local top and no confirmed reversal signal yet on the chart, the technical setup currently favors further downside toward $0.05862.
Canton’s institutional positioning in the RWA space gives it stronger fundamental footing than most memecoins facing similar chart pressure. But fundamentals rarely override technicals in the short term — and until CC reclaims $0.1493, the bearish fractal remains the dominant framework to trade against.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Whales accumulated 0.34% more BTC since July 29, while retail wallets cut holdings by 0.59%, according to Santiment.Bitcoin's monthly momentum oscillator has reached levels seen at the 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 market bottoms.The combination of whale accumulation and retail capitulation points to a higher probability of a move toward $70,000+ rather than below $60,000.
Bitcoin’s current setup is being read by on-chain analysts and long-term technical analysts as the same environment — from two completely different analytical frameworks — arriving at the same conclusion simultaneously.
Bitcoin is trading at $64,351 — up +0.64% over 7 days and +2.52% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $1.29 trillion. The price consolidation near $64,000–$65,000 has now persisted for several sessions — a range that the on-chain and technical signals below suggest may be a historically significant accumulation zone rather than a prelude to further downside.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price on 07 August 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Whale Accumulation vs Retail Exit: The Classic Bottom Pattern
Santiment data reveals a divergence between large and small Bitcoin holders that has historically been one of the more reliable signals of a market approaching a durable low:
Holder Type Wallet Size Change Since July 29Whales and Sharks10–10,000 BTC+0.34%Micro-retailUnder 0.01 BTC-0.59%
What the divergence means:
While retail participants holding less than 0.01 BTC have reduced their holdings by -0.59% — the sharpest drop in micro-holder balances since December 2024 — wallets in the 10–10,000 BTC range have been simultaneously increasing their holdings by +0.34%. Supply is transferring from small, sentiment-reactive holders to large, conviction-driven participants.
The Coldcard fallout as a catalyst:
Santiment specifically notes that this divergence coincides with the Coldcard hardware wallet entropy flaw — where a firmware vulnerability led to an estimated 1,360 BTC (~$87 million) being swept from affected wallets. The resulting fear and uncertainty in the retail community appear to have accelerated small holder selling — while larger, more informed participants have been absorbing that supply rather than joining the exit.
Santiment’s probability assessment:
The data provider suggests that this specific pattern — key stakeholders accumulating while retail reduces exposure amid FUD — historically increases the probability of Bitcoin moving toward $70,000+ rather than revisiting levels below $60,000. This is not a guaranteed outcome — it is a probability assessment based on prior instances where the same divergence appeared.
Bitcoin (BTC) Whale Accumulation Graph/Source: @SantimentData (X)
Monthly Oscillator at Historic Bottom Zone
Analyst @JamesEastonUK shared a full-history monthly Bitcoin chart that provides the longest possible timeframe context for the current momentum reading — and the signal it is producing is one that has appeared at every major Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2011.
Reading the chart:
The chart displays Bitcoin’s price action (right axis) alongside a momentum oscillator (purple line, left axis) that tracks the rate of momentum change on the monthly timeframe. The current reading sits at approximately -46.41 — in extreme oversold territory.
Chart: Bitcoin/USD Monthly | Source: TradingView, @JamesEastonUK, August 7, 2026
The five historic bottom zones — marked by red dots:
The chart’s red dots mark each prior instance where the monthly oscillator reached the extreme oversold zone visible at the bottom of the indicator panel. These occurred at:
PeriodBitcoin Approximate PriceWhat FollowedLate 2011 / Early 2012~$2–$3Major cycle bottom → Substantial rallyEarly 2015~$150–$200Major cycle bottom → 2017 bull runLate 2018 / Early 2019~$3,200Major cycle bottom → 2020–2021 bull runLate 2022~$15,500–$16,000Major cycle bottom → Current cycle ATH $126K2026 (Current)~$64,000Reading now matching prior bottoms
The current reading in context:
The monthly oscillator has now dropped to the same extreme level that appeared at each of the four prior major Bitcoin cycle bottoms — with each prior instance followed by a substantial multi-month to multi-year recovery. The blue horizontal lines on the chart mark the upper resistance zone (approximately 100 on the oscillator) and the extreme oversold zone (approximately -70 to -80) — with the current reading sitting near the lower boundary.
The current position on the price chart:
Bitcoin at approximately $60,000–$64,000 on the right axis corresponds to the current oscillator reading — visible at the rightmost point of the chart where the purple oscillator line is descending toward the extreme oversold zone marked by the lower cyan horizontal line.
@JamesEastonUK’s comment accompanying the chart was direct and unambiguous:
“Most will buy higher, MUCH higher.”
The implication is consistent with every prior red dot on the chart — each appeared at a point where the majority of market participants were reducing or avoiding exposure, and each preceded a significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value.
Why Both Signals Point the Same Direction
The on-chain divergence and the monthly technical reading are measuring fundamentally different things — yet both are identifying the same environment:
Santiment’s whale vs retail divergence measures actual holder behaviour — who is buying and who is selling in real time. It is a present-tense signal about current market participant activity.
@JamesEastonUK’s monthly oscillator measures momentum on the longest available timeframe — comparing current momentum conditions to every prior cycle in Bitcoin’s 15-year history. It is a historical context signal about where in the cycle the current reading appears.
Two frameworks. One conclusion: the current zone has historically been where informed accumulation occurs before the broader market realises it missed the bottom.
This convergence adds to the body of evidence we have been building throughout July and August 2026 — including the MVRV at the 5th percentile, the Realized Profit vs Loss crossover approaching, the 147-day weekly bullish divergence, and the Structural Market Bands support zone — each measuring the same underlying dynamic from a different angle.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin at $64,351 is sitting at the intersection of a Santiment-confirmed whale accumulation signal and a monthly momentum oscillator reading that has matched every major Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2011. Retail is selling. Whales are buying. The monthly oscillator is at extreme historic lows. These three observations are not individually conclusive — but their simultaneous appearance is the kind of convergence that, in prior cycles, has characterised the late accumulation phase before the next major directional move.
@JamesEastonUK’s observation — “Most will buy higher, MUCH higher” — is the compressed version of what the full historical chart is showing. Every prior red dot on that monthly chart was followed by a period where that statement proved accurate.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Analyst identified a fractal mirroring PEPE in late 2023 and DOGE in late 2020 — both of which broke above descending channels before major rallies.PURR has broken above its descending trendline — but confirmation requires a reclaim of the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $0.1763.$0.05785 is the critical support — a sustained break below could weaken the bullish structure.
Purr (PURR) is currently trading at approximately $0.06758, up 5.20% over the past 7 days. However, the token remains down 26.40% over the last 30 days, with a market capitalization of around $40.23 million.
PURR Memecoin Price on 07 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Purr is showing the early technical fingerprints of two of the most explosive memecoin breakouts in recent history. Whether the fractal delivers its historical precedent depends on one specific level.
What Is Purr (PURR)?
Purr (PURR) is a deflationary memecoin launched on the Hyperliquid L1 blockchain. It was introduced as the first token for spot trading on the platform, with a maximum supply of 1 billion tokens.
Its tokenomics are notably deflationary: of the 1 billion maximum supply, 500 million were distributed to early Hyperliquid points holders and 400 million were burned from the initial HIP-2 deployment. Crucially, trading fees paid in PURR are burned — meaning every transaction reduces the circulating supply permanently.
PURR has no planned utility beyond community representation — making it a pure memecoin whose value is entirely sentiment and ecosystem driven.
The PEPE and DOGE Fractal
Analyst @MaxBecauseBTC mapped PURR’s current price structure against two of the most documented memecoin breakouts:
Chart: PURR fractal comparison | Source: @MaxBecauseBTC
PEPE (late 2023) and DOGE (late 2020) followed nearly identical sequences:
Step 1 — Formed a base at a major support zone after an extended declineStep 2 — Consolidated within a descending channel — lower highs pressing against rising supportStep 3 — Broke above the descending resistance trendlineStep 4 — Reclaimed the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level — the specific confirmation that preceded the impulsive rally phase in both prior instancesStep 5 — Launched a powerful, sustained bull run
Where PURR currently sits:
PURR has completed Steps 1–3 — forming its base, consolidating in the descending channel, and now breaking above the descending trendline. Step 4 — the 0.5 Fibonacci reclaim at $0.1763 — is the unconfirmed gate that determines whether the fractal delivers its historical precedent or fails at this stage.
Key Levels — What to Watch
$0.1763 — The confirmation gate:
In both PEPE’s 2023 and DOGE’s 2020 breakouts, reclaiming the 0.5 Fibonacci level was the specific event that confirmed the breakout was genuine and the impulsive rally phase was beginning. Until PURR reclaims this level on a sustained basis, the fractal carries genuine downside risk — the trendline break alone is insufficient confirmation.
From the current price of $0.06758, reaching $0.1763 requires approximately +161% upside — making this a significant move that requires sustained buying conviction rather than a gradual drift.
$0.05785 — The floor that must hold:
A sustained daily close below $0.05785 would break the bullish structure — invalidating the fractal thesis and removing the base that both prior memecoin breakouts required as their foundation. This is the specific level bulls must defend to keep the pattern viable.
Bullish Scenario — $0.1763 Reclaimed:
PURR holds $0.05785 support, builds momentum from the trendline breakout, and achieves a sustained close above $0.1763 — confirming the fractal is playing out as mapped and historically preceding a powerful impulsive rally phase consistent with PEPE and DOGE’s prior outcomes.
Bearish Scenario — Below $0.05785:
A sustained close below $0.05785 breaks the base structure — invalidating the fractal comparison and requiring PURR to establish a new, lower accumulation zone before any recovery attempt becomes credible.
Bottom Line
PURR has completed the early stages of a fractal that has preceded two of the most significant memecoin bull runs in recent history. The descending trendline break is encouraging — but the fractal remains unconfirmed until $0.1763 is reclaimed. Watch $0.05785 as the floor that must hold and $0.1763 as the confirmation that unlocks the full thesis.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

主なハイライト
$CASHCATは24時間で40〜60%上昇しており、取引所をまたいで$0.13〜$0.15の範囲で取引されています。
時価総額は$130〜$145百万付近で推移しており、24時間の出来高は$50〜$100百万を超えています。
Robinhoodは2026年8月6日、RobinhoodアプリおよびRobinhood Legendにて$CASHCATを公式に上場しました。
このトークンは、取引量と市場の関心の面でRobinhood Chainの主要なミームコインのままです。
Cash Cat（$CASHCAT）は、現在のミームコイン・サイクルにおいて最も鋭い単日値動きの1つを記録し、主要なカタリストとしてRobinhoodの個人向け取引プラットフォームでの公式上場を受けて24時間で40〜60%急騰しました。

主なハイライト
Pi2Day 2026のEcosystem Questは、合計256万人以上のパイオニアが開始し、178万人がすべてのステップを完了しました。
特別版のPi2Dayバッジが、いまPi ChatsおよびPiソーシャルプロフィールで利用可能になりました。
Pi Networkは、SoloHost、Pi Sign-in、PiVerifyの3つの主要ツールをリリースしました。
コミュニティ開発者はすでにSoloHostに110のアプリを展開しており、420,000人以上のノード運用者に到達しています。
Pi Networkは、これまでで最も実用性に重点を置いたイベントとして、6月28日から7月13日まで実施された2週間のEcosystem Quest（エコシステム・クエスト）を中心に、さらにPiの既存ユーザーベースを大きく超えて広げることを目的とした3つの同時プロダクトローンチとあわせて、Pi2Day 2026を「Pi2Day 2026」として記念しました。

注目ポイント
トレーダーは弱気に傾いており、取引所全体でのポジションの53.8%が現在ショートです。
モネロはダブルトップを形成しており、サポートを下抜けることで「$303」を目標にしています。
日足で「$365」を上抜けて終われば、弱気セットアップは無効化されます。
モネロの、日足チャート上で技術的に定義されたダブルトップ、6つの主要取引所のうち5つでショート側センチメントが優勢であること、そして「$365」2回目の高値からの確定した拒否（リジェクション）—これらが組み合わさって、現在の暗号資産市場で見えている中でも比較的具体性の高い弱気セットアップの1つになっています。ここに全体像があります。結果を左右する具体的な水準も含めて紹介します。

主要ハイライト
PUMPは0.002507ドル近辺で取引されており、24時間で+12.3%、過去1カ月で+55%です。
Pump.funは直近30日で3,250万ドルの収益を生み出し、暗号資産の中でもトップクラスの手数料生成プロトコルにランクインしています。
Power of 3（PO3）パターンは引き続き強気で、目標は0.003124ドル（約+25%の上昇余地）です。
0.002162ドルは、強気の構造を維持するための重要なサポート水準です。
収益を生むクリプト・プロトコルへのローテーションが、現在の市場で非常に分かりやすい「ファンダ＋テクニカル」セットアップをいくつも生み出しています。Pump.fun——DeFiの中でも最も安定して収益を出しているプラットフォームの一つとして月間3,246万ドルを稼いでいる——は、日足チャート上で教科書どおりの「Power of 3（PO3）」の拡張フェーズを同時に見せています。この2つのシグナルは、今日の値動きを理解するうえで重要な形で互いを補強し合っています。

主なハイライト
LINKは$8.16近辺で取引されており、年初来（YTD）ではなお下落しているものの、過去1か月で3%上昇しています。
わずか1日の間に、126万LINKが取引所から流出しており、売り圧力の低下を示唆しています。
週足チャートは、212%のラリーに先立っていた2023年の蓄積（アキュムレーション）パターンを反映しています。
$14.43の奪還ができれば$15.50への道が開ける一方で、$7.00が主要なサポートとして残ります。
Chainlinkのセットアップは、現在の暗号資産市場において、より「精密に文書化された」潜在的な回復（リカバリー）フレームワークの一つです。投機によるものではなく、まったく同じパターン構造が、まったく同じ長期トライアングル内の同じ位置で、同じ資産に対して出現した際に、過去に+212%の上昇（ラリー）を生んだことが文書化されているからです。この細部の一致こそが、現在のセットアップを慎重に精査する価値を生み出しています。

主なハイライト
ICPは$2.10付近で取引されており、24時間で+1.9%上昇しているものの、年初来では下落が続いています。
週次取引は6月以降900%超に急増し、13億に到達しており、強いネットワーク成長を示しています。
ICPは下降トライアングルを形成しており、$2.15を上抜けると$3.31（+55%）がターゲットとなります。
$1.99を下回ると、強気のセットアップは無効になるでしょう。
インターネットコンピューター（ICP）は、現在の暗号資産市場において、オンチェーンのファンダメンタルの実績と価格の値動きの間で、最も重要な乖離の一つを示しています。8週間で週次取引が1.28億から13億へ増加している一方、価格は狭いテクニカルレンジ内で推移しています。この乖離がどのように解消されるかは、$2.15のレジスタンス水準が答えます。

主なハイライト
DOTは1ドル0.8326近辺で取引されており、24時間で+4.85%上昇。レイヤー1トークンが買い戻しにより上昇しています。
ポルカドットのトランザクションは約40万件まで急増しており、オンチェーン活動の強さを示しています。
DOTは下降ウェッジからブレイクアウトを果たしており、テクニカル目標は$2.03（+142%）です。
強気派はブレイクアウトを維持し、さらに上昇余地を確認するために100日移動平均線（$1.02付近）を取り戻す必要があります。
ポルカドットの+4.85%の本日の値動きは、単独で起きているわけではありません。これは過去24時間のアルトコイン市場で目立った出来事の一つである、より古い世代のレイヤー1トークンへ回帰する幅広いローテーションの一部です。下降ウェッジのブレイクアウトとネットワーク活動の改善が、この動きに“純粋なセクター勢い”以上の、具体的な分析的根拠を与えています。

主要ポイント
PIは約$0.0826近辺で取引されており、過去1か月で28.5%下落しています。売り圧力が続いているためです。
8月に1億2,796万PI（約1,056万ドル）が解放されます。さらに大きな解放は11月まで予定されています。
今後12か月で約17億PI（約1億4,070万ドル）がアンロック（解放）予定で、供給圧力が高まります。
PIは潜在的なラウンドボトム（丸い底）を形成しつつあり、重要なサポートは$0.0702、最初の主要レジスタンスは$0.1044です。
Pi Network（ピーネットワーク）の価格下落は、現在の暗号資産市場において構造的に見通しが立ちやすいストーリーの一つです。トークンのアンロック（解放）が加速し、継続的な供給拡大が生じる一方で、それを吸収する需要が不足していることが要因であり、厳しい状況のアルトコイン環境を背景に展開しています。価格の値動き（トラジェクトリー）を理解するには、アンロックのスケジュールを把握することが不可欠です。

主なハイライト
Kaspa（KAS）は約0.0265ドルで取引されており、年初来で約38%下落しています。これは、より広範なアルトコイン市場の動きと一致しています。
Toccataのハードフォークにより、KRC-20トークン、ネイティブなコンベナンツ（規約）、ZKプルーフ、そしてスマートコントラクト機能が追加されました。
ハッシュレートの低下は、採算の合わないマイナーがネットワークから離脱することで売り圧力を強めています。
最近の弱さにもかかわらず、ToccataはプログラマブルなPoWレイヤー1として、Kaspaの長期的な見通しを強化します。
Kaspaの-38%（年初来）の下落はつらいものの、その原因を理解するには、Kaspa固有の要因と、2026年の暗号資産市場全体に共通する現実を分けて考える必要があります。以下の分析はまさにそれを行います。

注目ポイント
バイナンスは、2026年8月17日に6つのトークン—ACX、HFT、PIVX、PYR、VANRY、VIC—を上場廃止すると発表しました。
この発表を受けて急な売りが起き、影響を受けたトークンでは最大23%の損失が出ました。
バイナンスは、今回の削除は通常の上場審査プロセスに基づくものだと述べました。
ユーザーは、上場廃止の期限までに影響を受けるトークンを引き出すか、換金（変換）してください。
バイナンスは、同社のプラットフォームから6つの暗号通貨を上場廃止すると発表しました。以下のトークンに関連するすべてのスポット取引ペアは、2026年8月17日03:00（UTC）に削除されます。

主なハイライト
過去5日間でクジラが2.4億ADAを蓄積しており、強い価格反発を後押ししています。
ADAは下落ウェッジからブレイクアウトしており、技術的な目標は$0.4059（+113%の上昇余地）です。
このブレイクは、先行して出ていたTD Sequentialの買いシグナルに続くもので、ADAは現在、6月の安値から約27%上昇しています。
カルダノの現在の動きには、持続的な回復と一時的な跳ね返りを分ける具体的な要素が揃っています。規模の大きいクジラの蓄積、日足チャートで確認されたパターンのブレイク、そしてそのパターン構造に裏付けられた明確な測定目標です。ここに全体像があります。

主なハイライト
UNIは$4.23で取引されており、v4フィー・スイッチの有効化と買い・バーン・メカニズムに続いて、過去1か月で32.3%上昇しました。
7月29日に106,000 UNIがバーンされ、これは同トークン史上で3番目に大きい単日バーンとなりました。
オンチェーン活動は依然として強く、新しいアドレス、アクティブユーザー、そしてクジラ取引がすべて上昇しています。
確認されたブレイクアウトにより、$5.88がターゲットとなっており、勢いが継続すれば約40%の上昇余地が見込めます。
Uniswapのv4フィー・スイッチの有効化は、DeFiプロトコル史上でも最も重要な基本的出来事の一つです。何年もかけて熟成されたガバナンス判断が、今や即時かつ測定可能なオンチェーン上の結果へと転換されました。実際のトークンバーン、継続的な新規ユーザーの成長、クジラ活動の高まり、そしてレテストを経ても維持されている確認済みのテクニカル・ブレイクアウト——ここに全体像をまとめます。

主要ポイント
SHIBは0.000004949ドル付近で取引されており、過去24時間で6.6%上昇、過去1か月では14.9%上昇しています。
週足チャートは、2024年にSHIBが314%急騰する前に見られたのと同様のパターンである、下降ウェッジを形成しつつあります。
確定したブレイクアウトは0.00003343ドルを目指す可能性があり、約600%の上昇余地を示唆しています。
0.00001216ドルは、強気派が取り戻してブレイクアウトを確定するための重要なレジスタンスです。
6年前、匿名の開発者リョーシ（Ryoshi）が、シンプルな犬のミームと初期価格ゼロで「ドージコイン・キラー」を目指す実験として柴犬（Shiba Inu）を立ち上げました。現在、$SHIBは29.1億ドルの時価総額、レイヤー2ブロックチェーン、分散型取引所、そして暗号資産の中でも最大級のホルダーコミュニティを有しています——そして週足チャートは、過去の大きな急騰の前に見られたのと同じボトミング構造を示しており、その流れをなぞっています。

主な注目点
ビットコインは約$63,753近辺で取引されており、8月に入るにあたり過去1か月で8.67%上昇しています。
8月はビットコインにとって最も弱い月であり、過去4年間すべてで損失を記録しています。
アナリストは、8月上旬に$58K〜$62Kレンジまで下落する可能性を見込んでいます。
想定されるシナリオでは、調整の後に$80K〜$92Kへ向けて反発する見通しです。
ビットコインは、数か月ぶりの最強の30日間パフォーマンスとともに8月に突入している——しかし、ポジティブな勢いをもって8月に入ったことが、その月に一貫して繰り返されるマイナス収益のパターンから資産を歴史的に守ってきたわけではありません。8月の下落が4年連続で平均-10%に達しており、月初の条件に関係なく、見過ごせない季節性の文脈が形成されています。

主なポイント
Coinkiteは、特定のColdcardデバイスにおけるシード生成を弱めるファームウェアの欠陥を公表しました。
約594.48 BTC（約3,820万ドル）が、約500のウォレットから移動され、研究者はその活動をエントロピー問題に関連づけています。
ファームウェアのアップデートは既存のシードを保護しません。ユーザーは新しいシードを作成し、資金を移動する必要があります。
50回以上のダイスロールを追加した、または強力なBIP-39パスフレーズを使用したユーザーは、リスクが大幅に低くなります。
緊急のセキュリティ勧告—Coldcard Mk3、Mk4、Mk5、またはQデバイスで最新のファームウェアのホットフィックスが適用される前にシードを生成した場合、資金が危険にさらされている可能性があります。全文を読み、すぐに移行手順に従ってください。

注目ポイント
ビットコインは約64,311ドルで取引されており、年初来では下落が続いているものの、過去1か月で9.6%上昇しています。
Alphractalによると、Realized Profit（実現益）とRealized Loss（実現損失）のクロスオーバーが近づいているとのことです——このシグナルは、歴史的に主要なBTCの底を示してきました。
2つの指標が急速に収束しており、サイクルの底の可能性が近いことを示唆しています。
これまでのクロスオーバーは強いビットコインの回復に続いており、注目すべき重要なオンチェーン指標です。
ビットコインのオンチェーンデータは、現在のサイクルにおいて、過去の歴史における中でも非常に重要なシグナルの1つを生み出しています——このシグナルは、ビットコイン史上の主要なサイクル底を、驚くほどの精度でことごとく言い当ててきました。これが何を測っているのか、過去には何を生み出してきたのか、そして現在どれくらいトリガーに近いのかを理解することは、現在の値動きを解釈するうえで欠かせない重要な文脈になります。