ビットコインは、水曜日のFRBのタカ派的な金利見通しを受けて、欧州時間の午前中は67,000ドルを上回って推移した。米中央銀行は水曜日に金利を据え置き、年内の利下げは1回のみと予想したため、ビットコインは下落した。アジア時間の午前中に67,000ドルに向かって下落した後、BTCは急速に上昇し、67,200ドルから67,800ドルの間で取引された。本稿執筆時点では、ビットコインは67,900ドルを上回っており、24時間前に0.16%上昇している。一方、CoinDesk CD 20は、同じ期間に0.34%下落している。イーサは3,500ドルを上下しており、現在、過去24時間で1.1%下落している。
Stick With Bitcoin, Avoid Ether, 10x Research Says After Fed Predicts Just One Rate Cut for 2024
BTC tends to rally after softer-than-expected CPI releases, 10x said.
The Fed will eventually signal more rate cuts, the research firm added.
ETF inflows resumed Wednesday as U.S. inflation came in lower-than-expected.
10x Research continues to advocate bitcoin even as the leading cryptocurrency trades under pressure following the Fed's hawkish interest rate projections.
On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank left the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 5.25%- 5.5% as expected. However, it predicted just one rate reduction this year, down from three in March. Given the softer-than-expected CPI release early in the day, the Fed's new rate prediction likely spooked markets, sending bitcoin lower.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value has pulled back to $67,400 since the Fed released rate projections, reversing the post-CPI jump to $70,000, CoinDesk data show.
Still, 10x Research maintains a positive outlook on bitcoin, expressing confidence that the rally will soon resume.
"Our recommendation remains unchanged: to stick with the winners (Bitcoin) and avoid others (such as Ethereum). Our previous analysis has shown that a lower CPI number tends to lift Bitcoin prices, and we anticipate this trend will continue," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients on Thursday.
The U.S. consumer price inflation rate was flat in May, missing the consensus estimate for a 0.1% rise and down from 0.3% in April. The year-on-year rate was 3.3%, matching estimates and down from April's 3.4%.
Per Thielen, the slowdown in inflation has historically attracted huge inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Provisional data from Farside Investors show the ETFs amassed $100 million on Wednesday, snapping a two-days outflows streak.
Thielen explained that the ETF flows dried after the debut on Jan. 11 as December CPI came in higher, weakening the case for Fed rate cuts. The flows resumed in February, pushing bitcoin higher.
"ETF flows turned positive at the end of January but only started to accelerate slightly ahead of the CPI data release on February 13. But when inflation again increased to 3.2% on March 12, Bitcoin ETF inflows stopped as the market priced out the narrative of 2-3 rate cuts," Thielen noted at the end of May.
Thielen expects the Fed to signal more rate cuts later this year as inflation has already peaked.
The SEC recent approval of ETH ETFs might eventually prove a more important event for Ethereum than it was for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s dominance, niche, and value proposition as a store of value are well-established and unlikely to be challenged in the near term. Ethereum, however, faces far stiffer competition, sometimes struggling to distinguish itself among narratives of smart contract platforms — until recently.
Now we know there are two major crypto assets likely not at risk of being called securities by U.S. regulators. This might not mean much for retail investors, especially outside the U.S., but clearing up the regulatory uncertainty will influence many institutional investors in considering chains to use, build and invest in.
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Ethereum will likely continue dominating developer activity in the blockchain space, at least when it comes to large projects. According to Electric Capital’s Developer Report, Ethereum (and EVM chain in general) attracted vastly more developers than all other chains last year. The potential capital inflows from the ETFs, accessible institutional pathways like Coinbase’s BASE L2, and now this stamp of legitimacy could further strengthen its dominance.
From a project point of view, the Ethereum chain has a robust pipeline including EigenLayer, Ethena, and BlackRock’s BUIDL. Just Ethena synthetic dollar (USDe) alone amassed in a few months the entire market cap of stablecoins on Solana, a staggering $3 billion. This doesn’t mean that other chains won’t host important crypto projects – they certainly will. But only Ethereum (for now) hosts protocols with the history and track record necessary for institutions to participate with meaningful capital. Think of AAVE or Uniswap, for example.
Lastly, a higher ETH price could kick-start the Ethereum DeFi economy, setting off a powerful feedback loop. To take a simple example: just on AAVE, there is ~$9 billion of ETH-linked collateral (between wETH, wstETH, weETH), plus another $1 billion or so in L2s. Sure, some of this collateral is used for delta-neutral strategies like recursive lending and points farming, but most of it is likely not.
A higher ETH price – and collateral value – could act like a stimulus package for its crypto economy. It creates wealth effects, more spending, more investment, more leverage. Especially if ETH-related altcoins follow higher.
It’s too early to say, but we might look back at this moment when Ethereum establishes itself as the “Amazon” of the digital asset economy. If scenario unfolds (still a big “if”), it might relegate other smart contract layer 1s to niche players (like “Etsys”), even if still supporting thriving communities. It’s unclear (to me at least), whether this is the best path for the industry; perhaps a more balanced multi-chain world would ultimately maximize adoption – we may never know. But at this stage, Ethereum dominance sure looks like the most likely outcome.
Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.