For-Exx Kripto 1

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — JULY 15, 2026 (Page 3/3)

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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — JULY 16

$ARB — Arbitrum | July 16, 16:00 TRT

Approximately 92.65 million ARB worth around $ 8.53 million.
1.65% of the circulating supply.

Ecosystem and contributor allocation.

Selling Pressure: LOW

A routine linear vesting event. Arbitrum has successfully absorbed unlocks of similar size in recent months.

Upcoming (Watchlist):

DBR — deBridge | July 17

Approximately 620 million DBR worth around $10.13 million.

11.43% of the circulating supply.

Selling Pressure: HIGH

Total Unlocks (July 16): Approximately $ 8.53 million. No major cliff unlocks.

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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS

Back-to-back softer-than-expected CPI and PPI reports have strengthened the disinflation narrative. However, Warsh's warning that the latest improvement may be temporary, combined with his continued hawkish stance, is preventing markets from fully pricing in future rate cuts.

Two factors will dominate the short-term outlook: whether Thursday's CLARITY Act meeting produces meaningful legislative progress, and how the Iran blockade affects energy prices ahead of July's inflation data.

Key events to watch this week:

July 17 — CLARITY Act congressional hearing (New York): A critical session focused on digital asset innovation and regulation, with Senator Lummis expected to push for Senate action.

July 17 — $DBR token unlock (~$10.13M, 11.43% of circulating supply): A high dilution event for a relatively small-cap asset.

July 28–29 — FOMC Meeting: Following the latest CPI and PPI reports, Warsh's policy stance will be the key factor shaping expectations.

August 7 — Effective Senate deadline for the CLARITY Act: Missing this legislative window would significantly reduce the likelihood of the bill advancing during 2026.

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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

$ETH significantly outperformed Bitcoin today as lower producer inflation and improving disinflation expectations reinforced optimism surrounding the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade.

$XRP reacted positively to news that the CLARITY Act will be discussed in Congress on Thursday, with regulatory clarity remaining a major long-term catalyst.

Japan's decision to classify cryptocurrencies as financial assets could accelerate institutional adoption across Asia over the longer term.

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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS

Warsh is increasingly viewed as the most crypto-literate Fed Chair to date. During his Senate Banking Committee testimony, he faced tough questions regarding cryptocurrency holdings and potential conflicts of interest.

Markets were focused on three issues: the Fed's rate outlook, Warsh's AI-driven disinflation thesis, and the GENIUS Act's stablecoin banking framework. His continued hawkish stance left all three questions largely unresolved.

Anthropic is reportedly preparing IPO investor meetings in the coming weeks, providing another important signal for both the AI and digital asset sectors.

SpaceX shares fell below their $135 IPO price for the first time. The company's holdings of more than 18,000 BTC continue to make it an important indirect participant in the crypto market.

Time is running short for the CLARITY Act before Congress begins its August recess. Polymarket now prices the bill's passage at 48%, while Galaxy Research estimates the probability at around 50%.

The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, highlighting continued policy divergence among G7 central banks.

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🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Trump announced that the U.S. has reinstated its Iran Blockade, targeting only Iranian vessels and their customers, while emphasizing that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open to all other countries.

Crypto markets posted strong gains today. Bitcoin rose 3.5%, while Ethereum gained more than 5%, pushing the total crypto market capitalization to $2.3 trillion.

During his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he is "not satisfied with any inflation measure," warning that June's CPI decline could be a one-off event and maintaining his hawkish stance.

U.S. June Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at -0.3% MoM (forecast: 0.0%), with both headline and core inflation continuing to surprise to the downside.

Japan is set to officially recognize cryptocurrencies as financial assets, according to NHK, marking a major regulatory step toward broader institutional adoption.

According to Politico, senators are expected to meet with Trump on Thursday to discuss the CLARITY Act. A new draft is expected to be released publicly in the coming days, with a Senate vote anticipated before the end of July.

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₿ BITCOIN

$BTC posted strong gains today as expectations for disinflation strengthened following the June CPI and PPI reports. However, Warsh's warning that the latest inflation slowdown may be temporary prevented markets from fully embracing the rally.

Historically, periods in which both headline and core inflation ease simultaneously have provided favorable conditions for Bitcoin. Even so, markets recognize that the Fed will likely require additional confirmation before adjusting monetary policy.

On-chain data continues to show accumulation by long-term holders, while short-term volatility remains largely driven by derivatives markets.

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — JULY 15 (page 3/3) $TRUMP — Official Trump Approximately 2.6 million TRUMP tokens worth about $ 3.1 million. Around 0.26% of the circulating supply. Insider linear distribution. Selling Pressure: LOW Routine monthly linear unlock with minimal expected market impact. $OP — Optimism Approximately 1.6 million OP tokens worth about $ 1.4 million. Ecosystem and contributor allocation. Selling Pressure: LOW A relatively small routine unlock. Other scheduled unlocks: Connex (CONX) → ~$21M TAC → ~$18M ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS Markets faced two opposing forces today. Softer inflation boosted risk appetite, while Warsh's hawkish tone prevented a full rally. This conflict is likely to persist until the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. If rising oil prices resulting from tensions with Iran push July inflation higher, Warsh's cautious stance may prove justified, creating additional pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, another soft inflation report next month would significantly strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged and could lay the foundation for a broader year-end recovery. Key events to watch: Tomorrow, 17:00 TRT — Warsh's Senate Banking Committee testimony and the June PPI report. Comments on crypto holdings and monetary policy could determine Bitcoin's near-term direction. Today — BlackRock and Morgan Stanley earnings. Markets will closely monitor IBIT assets under management and institutional crypto commentary. July 16 — Earnings from TSMC, Netflix, and UnitedHealth. Technology sector performance will remain a key driver of overall market risk appetite. July 28–29 — FOMC Meeting. The most important macro event of the month, with this week's economic data expected to shape the Committee's policy decision.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — JULY 14, 2026 (Page 2 /3) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

$ETH outperformed Bitcoin following the softer inflation report as lower real yields supported higher-risk assets. Historically, Ethereum has reacted more strongly than Bitcoin to major macroeconomic data, while expectations surrounding the Glamsterdam upgrade continue to provide additional support.

$XRP benefited from growing momentum behind the CLARITY Act despite weaker whale activity, as regulatory clarity remains a major long-term catalyst.

Meanwhile, IBM's sharp decline tested the correlation between technology stocks and digital assets.

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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS

The weaker-than-expected June CPI strengthened expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the July 28–29 meeting. However, Warsh's continued hawkish rhetoric means further tightening has not been completely ruled out.

IBM's 23% collapse marked its worst single-day decline since 1987, raising concerns that weakness in large technology stocks could weigh on institutional risk appetite.

BlackRock and Morgan Stanley report earnings today. Investors will closely watch BlackRock's comments regarding IBIT assets under management and the broader outlook for digital assets.

Warsh is expected to face tough questions tomorrow regarding cryptocurrency ownership and potential conflicts of interest, adding further attention to the ongoing crypto regulatory debate.

Only a few legislative days remain before Congress begins its August recess. Backed by Trump's public support, markets are closely watching whether the CLARITY Act can advance this week.

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🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

U.S. June CPI came in below all expectations. Headline inflation fell by 0.4% MoM (forecast: -0.1%) and rose 3.5% YoY (forecast: 3.8%). Core CPI was unchanged at 0.0% MoM (forecast: 0.2%) and increased 2.6% YoY (forecast: 2.8%). It marked the first monthly decline since 2000 and the strongest U.S. inflation report in nearly six years.

During his House testimony, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that he does not believe "everything is on the right track" and reaffirmed his zero-tolerance stance on inflation.

According to the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, 83% of investors do not expect another Fed rate hike before the November midterm elections.

U.S. spot $BTC ETFs recorded $424.66 million in net outflows on Monday, the largest single-day withdrawal of July, reversing the recent streak of inflows.

U.S. military bases in Kuwait were targeted again by missile and drone attacks, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran would "defend every inch of its territory."

Trump also instructed Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Syria and Lebanon.

Following Trump's endorsement of the CLARITY Act, momentum behind the bill continued to strengthen on Capitol Hill.

Traders sharply reduced their bets on a July Fed rate hike after the CPI report, with CME FedWatch showing a significant decline in hike expectations.

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₿ BITCOIN

More than $56 million in short positions were liquidated immediately after the CPI release, sending BTC briefly higher before stabilizing around the $64,400 range.

However, Warsh's hawkish remarks prevented markets from fully embracing the positive inflation data. The combination of a dovish CPI report and a hawkish Fed Chair continues to create conflicting signals.

USTC Repeg Possibility Current Status $USTC was Terra Classic's algorithmic stablecoin, originally pegged to $ 1 . After the 2022 collapse, the peg was lost and USTC has traded freely ever since. There is currently no active or reliable peg mechanism. What Is a Repeg? A repeg means restoring USTC to $ 1 through a sustainable and transparent system that can withstand market stress, not simply a price increase. Proposed Models Algorithmic Repeg: A redesigned mint-and-burn system, price oracles, and additional safeguards. The biggest challenge is the loss of confidence after the 2022 collapse. Soft Repeg: Gradually stabilizing the price, reducing supply over time, and moving toward $ 1 in stages rather than all at once. Hybrid Model: Partial reserves backed by on-chain revenue such as taxes, fees, and token burns. Building sufficient reserves remains difficult. Governance Any repeg depends entirely on community governance. Several proposals have been discussed, but most remain at the research stage. No live repeg mechanism exists today, and there is still no consensus. Main Challenges Loss of confidence Insufficient reserves Excessive supply Speculative attacks Risk of disrupting the balance between $LUNC and USTC These issues make a full repeg extremely difficult. Is It Realistic? Short term: Very unlikely. Medium term: Gradual stabilization is possible. Long term: Theoretically possible, but very difficult in practice. Most market participants consider a full $ 1 repeg unlikely. USTC and LUNC Any repeg would directly affect LUNC's supply and price. A poorly designed model could create new risks for LUNC, which is why validators and developers remain cautious. Overall Assessment A USTC repeg is technically possible but economically and psychologically challenging. The key question is no longer whether USTC can repeg, but whether it could remain sustainable over the long term.

USTC Repeg Possibility Current Status USTC was Terra Classic's algorithmic stablecoin, originally pegged to $ 1 After the 2022 collapse, the peg was lost and USTC has traded freely ever since. There is currently no active or reliable peg mechanism. What Is a Repeg? A repeg means restoring USTC to $ 1 through a sustainable and transparent system that can withstand market stress, not simply a price increase. Proposed Models Algorithmic Repeg: A redesigned mint-and-burn system, price oracles, and additional safeguards. The biggest challenge is the loss of confidence after the 2022 collapse. Soft Repeg: Gradually stabilizing the price, reducing supply over time, and moving toward $ 1 in stages rather than all at once. Hybrid Model: Partial reserves backed by on-chain revenue such as taxes, fees, and token burns. Building sufficient reserves remains difficult. Governance Any repeg depends entirely on community governance. Several proposals have been discussed, but most remain at the research stage. No live repeg mechanism exists today, and there is still no consensus. Main Challenges Loss of confidence Insufficient reserves Excessive supply Speculative attacks Risk of disrupting the balance between LUNC and USTC These issues make a full repeg extremely difficult. Is It Realistic? Short term: Very unlikely. Medium term: Gradual stabilization is possible. Long term: Theoretically possible, but very difficult in practice. Most market participants consider a full $ 1 repeg unlikely. USTC and LUNC Any repeg would directly affect LUNC's supply and price. A poorly designed model could create new risks for LUNC, which is why validators and developers remain cautious. Overall Assessment A USTC repeg is technically possible but economically and psychologically challenging. The key question is no longer whether USTC can repeg, but whether it could remain sustainable over the long term.

$DOGE continues its weakness, like other meme coins, currently at 0.0721, and the June 2023 support level of 0.05168 appears to be its target.

The $SOL pattern continues to develop, currently at 75.28, and according to the pattern, a move towards 51.98 and then 35.00 is possible.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — JULY 13, 2026 (Page 3/3) 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — JULY 13

$ARB — Arbitrum

Approximately 0.9% of circulating supply, worth around $ 4–5 million.

Selling Pressure: LOW - A routine linear vesting release with limited expected market impact.

$STRK — Starknet

Approximately 1.1% of circulating supply, worth around $ 3–4 million.

Selling Pressure: LOW–MODERATE

–9 million. No major cliff unlocks today, with the primary supply event remaining the PUMP unlock.

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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS

This week begins with one of the busiest macroeconomic calendars in recent years for crypto markets. Tomorrow's CPI report and Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony will take place within 90 minutes of each other.

Markets expect headline inflation to slow to 3.8%, but renewed pressure on energy prices due to Iran-related developments creates the risk of an upside surprise. A hotter-than-expected CPI could reinforce Warsh's hawkish stance and trigger another wave of selling in Bitcoin. Conversely, softer inflation combined with growing momentum behind the CLARITY Act could fuel a strong short-term recovery.

Two major questions will shape markets this week: Will Warsh strike a hawkish or dovish tone, and can the CLARITY Act gain meaningful momentum before Congress begins its August recess?

Key events to watch:

Tomorrow, 15:30 TRT — June CPI. Consensus: 3.8%. Iran-related energy risks continue to threaten an upside surprise.

Tomorrow, 17:00 TRT — Kevin Warsh's House testimony, beginning just 90 minutes after the CPI release. Questions from Senator Elizabeth Warren regarding crypto holdings and potential conflicts of interest are expected to attract significant attention.

July 15 — Warsh's Senate Banking Committee testimony and the June PPI release.

July 14–16 — Earnings season featuring JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — JULY 13, 2026 (Page 2/3) 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

$ETH has clearly outperformed Bitcoin this week. Eth ETF inflows remain positive, while expectations surrounding the Glamsterdam upgrade continue to support sentiment.

Whale activity on the XRP Ledger has declined significantly amid ETF outflows and rising geopolitical tensions.

Although Brad Garlinghouse's comments about once considering shutting down Ripple have raised concerns about the company's history,XRP's growing role in institutional real-world asset infrastructure continues to support its long-term outlook.

Strategy's decision to sell shares without purchasing Bitcoin also weighed indirectly on the broader altcoin market, reinforcing concerns that institutional crypto inflows may be slowing.

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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS

$PUMP faces a $127 million token unlock today, representing approximately 29.23% of its circulating supply. Most recipients are early insiders, making this one of the largest insider unlocks in recent months. Although the team has confirmed plans to purchase 50 billion PUMP tokens, markets will closely monitor whether those purchases are sufficient to absorb selling pressure.

The SEC is expected to finalize three major crypto regulatory proposals by July 2026, covering token offerings, broker-dealer custody requirements, and market structure rules for crypto trading platforms.

Senator Elizabeth Warren announced that she plans to question Kevin Warsh during tomorrow's hearing about potential conflicts of interest related to cryptocurrency holdings.

June CPI is expected to come in at 3.8%, down from 4.2% in May, while core inflation is forecast between 2.8% and 2.9%. Lower energy prices support that outlook, although renewed pressure on oil prices from tensions involving Iran remains a key upside inflation risk.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — JULY 13, 2026 (Page 1/3)

🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz "will remain open, with or without Iran," while introducing a new blockade targeting only Iran.

Trump unexpectedly endorsed the CLARITY Act, saying, "In honor of Senator Graham, this bill must pass," delivering the strongest political backing the legislation has received in Congress.

Strategy announced the sale of $466.7 million worth of MSTR shares but did not purchase any Bitcoin afterward. Markets interpreted this as a potential "selling cycle" signal, putting short-term pressure on $BTC

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed that after the SEC lawsuit was filed in 2020, the company seriously considered shutting down Ripple and distributing $XRP to shareholders.

Bitcoin experienced a sharp reversal this week, recovering from a low of $57,950 to above $64,000. Selling pressure triggered by Iran-related headlines was later offset by renewed ETF inflows.

WebX 2026 officially opened today in Tokyo, Asia's largest Web3 conference, focusing on tokenization, DeFi, and institutional adoption.

The June FOMC minutes revealed that several policymakers had already supported a rate hike last month, while AI infrastructure investment was discussed as an inflation factor for the first time.

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₿ BITCOIN

Bitcoin experienced one of its most volatile weeks of the year. Following news of the Iran blockade, BTC fell to $57,950 before rebounding above $64,000 as Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive after an eight-week outflow streak.

BTC is currently trading around $63,850. Mild selling pressure reflects renewed expectations for future Fed rate hikes. The July 11 short squeeze liquidated approximately $133 million in bearish positions and pushed BTC above $64,000. However, markets are still pricing more than a 65% probability of another rate hike by year-end, creating a significant headwind.

$BTC continues to limp upwards, all coins have been like this for a while, I'm still waiting for it to see the next resistance level of 65743 that I wrote about at the 61688 level

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — JULY 9, 2026 (Page 3/3) 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — JULY 10 $RAIN → ~$660M–793M USD (largest), VELVET → ~$ 3.8M–14.6M USD, HOME → ~$ 3.5M–7.5M USD, FLR (Flare) → ~$ 7.55M USD, MOVE (Movement) → ~$ 1.85M USD, LINEA → ~$0.975M–1.93M USD, W (Wormhole) → ~$489K USD, RESOLV → ~$43K USD Key unlocks to watch this week: $PUMP — pump fun — July 12, 01:00 TRT ~82.5B PUMP worth approximately $134.6M, equal to 29.23% of circulating supply. The team is confirmed to receive 50B PUMP. Selling Pressure: HIGH 🔴 By far the largest unlock of the week. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS The market's primary conflict remains clear: if the Strait of Hormuz closes, oil prices surge, inflation expectations rise, the probability of further Fed rate hikes increases, and Bitcoin comes under additional pressure. On the other hand, BlackRock's $250 million Bitcoin purchases, Paradigm's $ 1.2 billion fund, and continued institutional ETF inflows indicate that the market's underlying demand remains intact. In the short term, geopolitical developments will remain the dominant driver. Any escalation or ceasefire headlines related to the Strait of Hormuz could trigger sharp moves in either direction. Key events to watch this week: July 12 — PUMP unlock (~$134.6M): Impact on the Solana ecosystem and the memecoin sector. July 14 — June CPI: The most important macroeconomic release ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Following May's 4.2% inflation reading, this report could significantly reshape expectations. Ongoing: Developments surrounding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic mediation efforts, which could influence markets even before the CPI release.

🔐 暗号資産レポート — 2026年7月9日（2/3ページ） 🔷 イーサリアム＆アルトコイン

$ETH は今週最も強い主要資産で、過去7日間で5.7%上昇し、イーサのETFへの資金流入も継続しています。

Bitmineは追加で約40,000 ETHを購入し、保有は総供給量の約4.8%に達しました。Tom Leeは「私たちはまだ暗号資産の“クリプト春”の初期段階にいる」と繰り返し、イーサリアムの週間パフォーマンスをさらに後押ししています。

HYPEは、地政学的な不確実性の中でトークン化されたコモディティ商品への需要が高まり、エコシステムを支えたことで、週次で5.9%上昇しました。

ソラナは主要資産の中で唯一、週次で下落しています。$SOL はおよそ$77の水準で取引されています。

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📋 主要暗号資産ニュース

ウェルズ・ファーゴは、ブラックロックのIBITやETHAを含む暗号資産ETFへの主要投資を開示し、さらにマイクロストラテジーやその他の暗号資産関連株式での重要な保有も確認しました。同行はCoinbaseやGalaxy Digitalの保有を減らし、いくつかのビットコインETFのポジションを再編しています。

MARAはAIインフラのためにテキサスで1,200エーカーの土地を取得しました。同社はビットコイン・マイニングと高性能計算向けの統合型デジタル・キャンパスを建設する計画で、株価は12%以上上昇しました。

バイナンスは、ギリシャのMiCA申請を取り下げた後、新たなライセンスの選択肢について欧州の規制当局と協議しています。

米上院議員エリザベス・ウォーレンは、Transparency Act（透明性法）に抜け穴が含まれている可能性があり、制裁の回避を可能にし得ると警告しました。

Circleは、2025年の詐欺事件で盗まれた381,000 USDCを焼却して再発行することを拒否し、現在はウィスコンシン州の裁判所命令に従わなかったとして告発されています。この件は、ステーブルコインに関する重要な法的前例となる可能性があります。

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🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a complete halt today.

The White House said it is preparing for a conflict that could last several days or even weeks. The U.S. military also announced it is ready to reimpose the blockade if ordered.

Qatar's Prime Minister said they support all efforts aimed at preventing further escalation.

Mediator countries are working to bring Iran and the United States back to the negotiating table.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $85 million in net outflows on Wednesday, while ETH ETFs posted net inflows.

BlackRock resumed buying $BTC BTC through IBIT over the past two days, purchasing approximately $250 million worth of Bitcoin, signaling renewed institutional demand near key price levels.

Paradigm raised a new $ 1.2 billion fund for artificial intelligence and crypto infrastructure projects.

South Korea's Mirae Asset Group became the first traditional financial institution in the country to acquire a cryptocurrency exchange.

Sony received conditional approval in the United States to establish a bank focused on stablecoin issuance.

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₿ BITCOIN

BTC continues to hold above $62,000, with its reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions remaining relatively limited. The market is increasingly pricing war-related shocks as an interest rate story, with Bitcoin now moving more closely alongside short-term U.S. Treasury yields than traditional safe-haven assets. As the two-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches its 2026 high, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, keeping pressure on BTC. However, the $60,000 level remains a critical support. Holding above this level despite escalating tensions could strengthen the case for capital rotating from gold into Bitcoin.

Most of the $272 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours came from long positions.

$XRP