Bank of America Survey Flags Record Dollar Bearish Bets , What It Means for Bitcoin
Bank of America’s latest February survey is sending a strong signal to the market. Investors are now more bearish on the U.S. dollar than they have been in over a decade. Positioning has dropped to the most negative level since early 2012. In simple words , big money is betting that the dollar will fall further. This is mostly because of growing worries around the U.S. labor market and expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon. When rate cuts come, dollar usually gets weaker. So Normally… This Should Be Good for Bitcoin, Right? Historically, yes. Since its early days, Bitcoin has mostly moved in the opposite direction of the dollar. When the dollar weakens, risk assets like stocks and crypto tends to perform better. A softer dollar also makes Bitcoin slightly cheaper for global buyers. So if history repeat itself, record bearish bets on the dollar should be a bullish tailwind for BTC. But here’s where things gets interesting. The Twist No One Expected Since early 2025, Bitcoin and the dollar have been moving in the same direction. That’s unusual. The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply last year, and instead of rallying, Bitcoin also fell. Their 90-day correlation recently touched 0.60 , which means they are positively linked for now. If this new relationship continues: A further drop in the dollar could actually pressure Bitcoin.A sharp dollar rebound (especially from a short squeeze) might push BTC higher instead. It sounds confusing, but markets sometimes behaves like that. The Short Squeeze Risk When everyone is heavily positioned on one side (in this case, bearish on the dollar), the risk of a sudden reversal increases. If the dollar unexpectedly bounces: Short sellers may rush to close their positions.That creates a short squeeze.Volatility increases fast.And Bitcoin could get dragged higher along with it. Extreme positioning often leads to extreme moves. Final Thoughts Right now, the market setup is not as simple as “weak dollar = strong Bitcoin.” The correlation shift is the key story here. If the old inverse pattern comes back, BTC could benefit from dollar weakness. But if this new positive link holds, we may see some unexpected price action. One thing is clear , volatility is likely coming. And when volatility comes in crypto, it never arrives quietly.
Harvard Cuts Bitcoin Exposure by 20%, Adds New Ether Position
Harvard University’s massive $56.9 billion endowment has made a notable shift in its crypto exposure. While trimming its position in Bitcoin-related holdings, the university simultaneously initiated its first-ever investment in Ether , signaling a strategic portfolio rebalance rather than a retreat from digital assets. First Move Into Ether According to a recent SEC filing, the Harvard Management Company (HMC) purchased nearly 3.9 million shares of iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), a spot Ether ETF managed by BlackRock. The position is valued at approximately $86.8 million, marking Harvard’s first direct exposure to Ethereum through an exchange-traded vehicle. Bitcoin Exposure Reduced by 21% At the same time, Harvard reduced its stake in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by about 21%, selling roughly 1.5 million shares. Despite the reduction, IBIT remains Harvard’s largest publicly disclosed crypto holding, still valued at $265.8 million. The move follows a volatile period for Bitcoin, which dropped from an all-time high near $125,000 in October to under $90,000 by the end of the quarter. Strategy Shift or Market Mechanics? Experts suggest this adjustment may not reflect bearish sentiment toward Bitcoin. Instead, it could be linked to sophisticated market dynamics. According to Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors, the reduction may represent the unwinding of a popular institutional trade strategy. During Bitcoin’s strong rally, digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) traded at large premiums to their Bitcoin holdings , measured by a metric known as multiple of net asset value (mNAV). At one point, Strategy traded near 2.9 mNAV, meaning investors paid $2.90 in stock value for every $1 worth of Bitcoin the company held. Some institutional investors: Bought Bitcoin exposure indirectly via IBITShorted treasury companies trading at inflated premiums As Bitcoin’s price corrected and treasury stock premiums narrowed , with Strategy now trading near 1.2 mNAV , that trade likely began unwinding. Broader Institutional Trend SEC 13F filings show institutional ownership of IBIT dropped significantly in Q4: From 417 million shares in Q3To 230 million shares in Q4 This indicates Harvard is not alone in reducing Bitcoin ETF exposure. Portfolio Rebalancing Beyond Crypto Harvard also: Increased positions in Broadcom and TSMCAdded to Alphabet and Union PacificTrimmed stakes in Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia
This suggests a broader portfolio adjustment, not just a crypto-specific move. What This Means Harvard’s shift reflects: Continued institutional participation in cryptoGrowing acceptance of Ethereum alongside BitcoinTactical rebalancing after significant market volatility Rather than signaling a loss of confidence, the move highlights how large institutions dynamically adjust crypto exposure based on market structure, valuation spreads, and portfolio targets.
XRP Is Outrunning Bitcoin and Ether After Investors Piled Into the Recent Crash
XRP is leading the latest crypto rebound, outperforming both Bitcoin and Ether after investors aggressively bought the dip during this month’s market crash. Following the sharp selloff on Feb. 6, XRP has staged an impressive recovery, signaling strong demand from traders who viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity. 📈 XRP’s 38% Rebound Since the Crash After dropping to $1.12 during the Feb. 6 crash, XRP has rallied roughly 38%, climbing back to around $1.55. In the past 24 hours alone, the token has gained more than 5%. In comparison: Bitcoin and Ether have recovered approximately 15% from their recent lows.XRP’s rebound has significantly outpaced the broader crypto market. This relative strength suggests that capital rotation and targeted accumulation are playing a role in XRP’s surge. 🔄 Signs of Accumulation After the Selloff On-chain and exchange flow data show that a large number of XRP tokens were withdrawn from exchanges shortly after the crash. A sharp reduction in exchange reserves is typically interpreted as a sign of accumulation. When investors move assets off exchanges, it often signals an intention to hold rather than sell. Between Feb. 7 and Feb. 9, exchange-held XRP balances declined noticeably, marking one of the lowest levels seen in months. Since then, reserves have remained stable , a pattern often associated with post-crash accumulation phases. 📉 Supply Dynamics Supporting the Rally Large withdrawals can temporarily reduce the amount of XRP available for immediate sale. With supply tightening and demand rising during a recovery phase, price momentum can accelerate. Historically, similar patterns have preceded strong XRP rallies. In late 2024, declining exchange balances coincided with a sharp upward price movement. 🚀 Market Rotation at Play XRP’s outperformance also highlights a broader market dynamic: after major selloffs, investors often rotate into altcoins that they believe are undervalued or oversold. While Bitcoin and Ether remain dominant, XRP’s sharper recovery suggests that traders are selectively positioning in assets with stronger short-term momentum. 📊 The Bigger Picture The recent move underscores three key themes: Dip-buying remains active in the crypto market.XRP is currently showing stronger recovery momentum than Bitcoin and Ether. Whether this outperformance continues will depend on broader market conditions, but for now, XRP is clearly leading the rebound narrative. #dyor #NFA✅
Ark Invest Adds $18 Million in Crypto Stocks, Extends Buying Streak
ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, added another $18 million worth of crypto-related equities to its portfolio on Thursday, reinforcing its continued exposure to the digital asset sector. The move signals sustained institutional confidence in crypto infrastructure and trading businesses despite ongoing market volatility. Breakdown of the Purchases According to disclosure filings: Around $2 million was invested in a publicly listed digital asset exchange operator, marking the firm’s 10th consecutive day of buying shares in the company.Approximately $12 million was allocated to a U.S.-based retail trading platform known for crypto access.Nearly $4 million went into an ether-focused treasury and digital asset infrastructure firm. Market Context The purchases come during a mixed period for crypto markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum have faced recent volatility amid macro uncertainty.Technology stocks in the U.S. have also experienced pressure.Crypto-linked equities have shown sharp swings in response to both market sentiment and broader risk appetite. Despite these conditions, ARK continued accumulating exposure. What This Signals ARK’s ongoing buying streak suggests: Long-term confidence in crypto adoptionContinued institutional participation in digital asset infrastructureStrategic accumulation during periods of weakness
Rather than reducing exposure, the firm appears to be positioning for potential long-term upside in crypto-related businesses. Bigger Picture Crypto-linked stocks provide indirect exposure to the digital asset ecosystem through: Trading platformsInfrastructure providersTreasury-focused firmsBlockchain-based financial services The continued inflows highlight that institutional players remain active participants in the evolving crypto economy.