We’re currently in a bear phase, but haven’t yet reached the "extreme bear" stage.
That said, on the HTF, we appear to be approaching a bottom.
In previous cycles, buying within the extended light blue zone has consistently proven to be highly effective. It’s certainly reasonable to start accumulating spot BTC in this range.
If we move into the “extreme bear” zone (dark blue) , I’d accumulate as much as possible.
We bottom this year August-September latest. Earlier than previous cycles.
It then takes $BTC just under a year to create a new ATH.
Based on the math, we are 427 days from creating a new all time high.
And we are 120 days from creating a bottom. That means... we form a new ATH precisely between April and August 2027.
Based on this metric, we have completed 75% of the bear market.
In this image, I am measuring the time from each election to the first bull market peak, as well as how long it takes Bitcoin to surpass that peak following the subsequent election day.
The cycles are accelerating, with shorter bear markets and faster recoveries.
In the next 1 year, I’m either going to look like a genius or a complete fool. This is my prediction based on current patterns and their timing.
Nothing changed structurally, price is still chopping at 66k. We’re seeing less reaction on the upside now - pushes are getting weaker and shorter, which usually comes before expansion.
Liquidity below hasn’t gone anywhere - the more time price spends just above without fully clearing it makes it more likely to be drawn into.
Upside still looks possible, but it’s not even being tested. That tells you more than anything - market isn’t even trying to push higher, just slowly giving up ground.
If this continues, it’s less about a sharp move and more about a drift lower into those deeper pockets.
BTC is currently trading below the monthly open, and as long as it stays below this level, it keeps the downside target at 64.9K in play.
Given that we’re still early in the month, both 69.2K and 64.9K are highly probable targets that could be swept. A confirmed break and hold above the monthly high at 69.2K would shift momentum, opening the path toward 71.6K, which marks the upper range extension.
Until that happens, the structure leans more bearish than bullish, with 64.9K remaining the primary target while price remains below the monthly open.
If that level fails, the next key area of interest sits around 62–63K, which would be my ideal sweep zone.
🚨 UPDATE: Bitcoin buying is failing to offset a wave of selling by large holders, with $BTC trading at $68,217 and down 22% year to date, per Bloomberg.