_E11even

March 11, 2026
Bitcoin trades near $70K after rebounding from a correction as institutional inflows resume.
BTC started 2026 above $90K, corrected on macro uncertainty, then rebounded as investors reassessed risks.
Ethereum remains the second-largest crypto, supported by DeFi, tokenization and smart-contract adoption.
BTC Price Performance Over the Past 30 Days

ResearchAlongside Bitcoin, Ethereum ETH-USD has also shown resilience so far in 2026. Despite broader market volatility, Ethereum has remained the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, supported by continued adoption of its blockchain for decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization and smart-contract applications.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in 2026 have intensified global market volatility. Since February, U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliation have raised fears of a wider Middle East conflict involving regional proxies and attacks on energy infrastructure. The crisis has heightened concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, making energy supply disruptions a key risk. Oil prices briefly spiked above $100 per barrel on supply concerns, fueling inflation worries and risk aversion across financial markets.Against this backdrop, several investors are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as a potential macro asset. The key question is whether this shift represents a structural change or simply another cyclical rally. Let's delve deeper.
Geopolitics and the Crypto in 2026
So far in 2026, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility but remains resilient, with Bitcoin (BTC - Free Report) still trading at historically elevated levels. Bitcoin started the year above $90,000 in January 2026 before undergoing a correction amid macro uncertainty and shifting institutional flows. However, the market rebounded in early March as institutional inflows resumed and investors reassessed macro risks. By March 10-11, 2026, Bitcoin is again trading close to $70,000, highlighting continued investor demand despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.#BTCUSDT

Core Mechanisms of Impact
Interest rate cuts influence the crypto market through three primary financial channels:
Increased Liquidity (M2 Money Supply): Lower rates reduce borrowing costs, encouraging credit expansion and increasing the global money supply. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a 0.70+ correlation with global M2 liquidity growth. As more capital enters the financial system, a portion flows into speculative and high-growth assets like crypto.Weaker US Dollar (DXY): Rate cuts typically lead to a decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) as yields on US Treasuries become less attractive to international investors. Since Bitcoin is primarily priced in USD, a weaker dollar inversely pushes BTC prices higher. Current data shows the DXY at 98.74, with analysts predicting a potential 10% decline if a sustained cutting cycle begins.Lower Opportunity Cost: When the "risk-free" rate (Treasury yields) drops, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin decreases. Investors seeking higher returns are forced to move further out on the risk curve, benefiting the crypto sector.
Historical Performance and Context
Historical data from previous Fed cycles provides a roadmap for potential price action:
The 2019-2020 Cycle: When the Fed began cutting rates in July 2019, Bitcoin initially experienced a "sell the news" correction. However, as rates hit the "zero bound" in March 2020 alongside massive liquidity injections, Bitcoin rallied from approximately $5,000 to over $60,000 within 12 months—a 1,100% increase.Correlation with Tech Stocks: Crypto maintains a high 30-day rolling correlation (currently 69% to 92%) with the Nasdaq 100 (^IXIC). Rate cuts that boost tech valuations generally provide a tailwind for crypto prices.
Current Market Outlook (March 2026)
As of March 4, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintains the target rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Market expectations from the CME FedWatch Tool indicate:
March 2026 Meeting: An 82–86% probability of a pause (no change), as the Fed monitors inflation and tariff-related economic shifts.June 2026 Outlook: A 50.7% to 66% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.Price Action: Bitcoin is currently trading near $71,458, having recovered from a recent dip to $61,000. The market appears to be "pricing in" the transition from a restrictive to a neutral policy stance.#BTC

技術的観点から見ると、ビットコインは過熱の兆候を示していますが、オンチェーンデータはそれとは異なることを示唆しています。

• ビットコインは5月22日に$111,970の新しい最高値を記録しましたが、$110,700に戻りました。アナリストは市場の過熱に関して混合信号を指摘しています。
• 資金調達率やその他の指標は「健全な上昇段階」を示唆しています。
ビットコインの[BTC $108,964]価格は5月22日に$111,970の新しい最高値を記録しました。しかし、執筆時点でBTC価格はすぐに$110,700に戻りました。

• Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have declined as prices picked up, indicating reduced selling activity.
• Bitcoin's realized cap has grown by 3%, increasing by $30 billion in April, yet it remains below the highs reached in November and December.
• BTC long-term holder supply has seen a slight drop for the second time in May, indicating increased spending from this cohort.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $103,600, down 0.5% on Wednesday amid a decline in the general crypto market. Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have dropped, signaling a shift toward holding despite increased spending among long-term holders (LTH).
Bitcoin whales resume holding amid decline in LTH supply
Bitcoin inflows from whale addresses on crypto exchange Binance have experienced a consistent decline in the past month.
Whale inflows on the exchange were $5 billion in April, coinciding with the start of Bitcoin's price recovery. However, it plunged to $3 billion in May, reflecting a notable decrease in large-holder activity. The decline in whale inflows suggests a shift toward holding among this group. 

However, retail inflows increased from $12 billion to $15 billion over the same period, still below levels seen during previous market peaks.
The downtick in whale selling pressure aligns with the growth of Bitcoin's realized cap, which maintained a 3% monthly increase, adding $30 billion in April, according to data from Glassnode.

Show navigationFXStreet
 Michael Ebiekutan
FXStreet Follow
Bitcoin whales resume holding despite increased long-term holders' spending
Cryptos | 05/15/2025 00:10:48 GMT
• Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have declined as prices picked up, indicating reduced selling activity.
• Bitcoin's realized cap has grown by 3%, increasing by $30 billion in April, yet it remains below the highs reached in November and December.
• BTC long-term holder supply has seen a slight drop for the second time in May, indicating increased spending from this cohort.
#BTC

Bitcoin faces a volatile trip among shifting liquidity conditions, with bulls getting squeezed first, new BTC price analysis predicts.
Bitcoin threatens a trip to long-term range lows before “full bull” takes over BTC price action.
In his latest analysis on X, released on Oct. 10, analyst Cole Garner said that he sees “capitulation incoming” for Bitcoin BTC$60,965.95 markets.
BTC price “range lows” still on the table
Bitcoin still stands to gain from global liquidity trends, but what comes first might shock the average trader.
Investigating current onchain phenomena, Garner flagged liquidity declining in the short term, which could be reflected in BTC price performance.
“Liquidity onchain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming,” he summarized.
“A common pre-requisite to full bull.”

BTC/USD 8-hour chart with Tether Ratio Channel
>Bitcoin kicks the can on “Uptober”
As Cointelegraph reported, some market participants still hope that BTC/USD will deliver a turnaround from its sideways moves before the end of October.
Related: Bitcoin traders don’t expect new highs until the 200-MA becomes support
One theory argues that even China’s stimulus rethink could spark a fresh wave of capital inflows toward crypto.
Zooming out, bullish BTC price predictions also remain in place. This week, longtime trader Peter Brandt said that he sees BTC/USD reaching $135,000 within the next year, provided that crucial support holds.
Bitcoin traded near $61,000 at the time of writing, down 4% month-to-date, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
#btcupdates2024 #BTC/USDT. #bitcoin #BTC

Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $63,500 zone. BTC even cleared the $64,200 resistance zone. However, the bears were active below $64,500. It traded as high as $64,419 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the $64,000 and $63,500 levels. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $61,723 swing low to the $64,41 high. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $63,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin price is now trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

The US released multiple employment-related reports throughout the week. The ADP report indicated that the private sector added 143K new jobs in September 2024. On the other hand, the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report showed an increase of 254K new jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The US dollar surged in response, closing at higher weekly levels.
Meanwhile, Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) consolidated throughout the week. AUD/USD declined sharply due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The US will release the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the September CPI data on Thursday. Additionally, the September PPI data will be released on Friday. These inflation figures are expected to drive market movements for gold, silver, and AUD/USD. Despite the strong US dollar, gold and silver show consolidation patterns that indicate a potentially bullish setup. This bullish setup will likely strengthen ahead of the upcoming inflation data releases.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) can be obtained either from this website or on request from our offices and should be considered before entering into a transaction with us. Raw Spread accounts offer spread.

Gold consolidation throughout the week has formed a bullish pennant. The price remains above the 20 and 50 SMAs, indicating a bullish trend. A break above $2,686 will likely initiate upward momentum in the gold market. The daily support levels are at $2,606 and $2,525. Gold is consolidating within this pennant ahead of CPI week.
The bullish pennant is also observed on the 4-hour chart. This pennant has formed within the rising channel pattern. Last week’s NFP release triggered strong volatility, but the price remains above the channel’s midline. The support levels are $2,630 at the black trend line and $2,590 at the rising channel pattern. #XAUUSD