For-Exx Kripto

A Bigger Risk for U.S. Stocks: The Debt Burden of AI Investments
As renewed inflation in the United States increases pressure on equity markets, a deeper risk in the technology sector is becoming increasingly apparent. The growing need for borrowing to finance artificial intelligence investments, combined with rising interest rates, is driving up corporate costs. The market's main concern is not so much whether demand for AI will continue, but rather how sustainable the massive investments being made to meet that demand really are.
The annual U.S. consumer inflation rate rose to 3.7% in September, strengthening expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates elevated for longer and consider another rate hike. Rising Treasury yields have created an additional source of pressure, particularly for technology and infrastructure companies that depend on external financing.
The Cost of the AI Race Is Rising
Technology companies are investing billions of dollars in data centers, advanced processors, and energy infrastructure to meet growing demand for AI applications. However, these investments require substantial amounts of capital before the resulting revenues are fully realized.
The increasing reliance of major technology companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle on bond issuance to secure financing indicates that the sector is facing an increasingly significant need for capital.
While financially strong companies can support these investments through their own cash flows, specialized cloud and AI infrastructure providers may need to borrow more heavily. In an environment of rising interest rates, this difference becomes critical to companies' financial resilience.
Rising Yields on CoreWeave Bonds Send a Warning Signal
CoreWeave has become one of the most striking examples of financing risk among AI infrastructure companies. Its shares experienced a sharp decline as investors grew increasingly concerned about borrowing costs and capital expenditures.
Yields on CoreWeave's 2031 and 2032 bonds approaching approximately 15% indicate a significant deterioration in credit market perceptions of the company's debt risk.
The company's business model requires substantial upfront capital to purchase advanced GPUs and build large data centers. The return on these investments depends on future customer contracts and revenue streams.
Strong customer demand alone may not be enough. When financing expenses and infrastructure costs rise rapidly, a significant portion of revenue growth may be absorbed by debt servicing, reducing the returns shareholders can expect.
Inflation and High Interest Rates Deepen the Risk
The renewed strengthening of price pressures in the United States creates a two-pronged problem for technology companies. On one hand, high inflation can push up Treasury yields and borrowing costs. On the other, high interest rates put pressure on the valuations of growth stocks.
Interest rate increases become particularly significant for projects whose returns are spread over many years. The present value of the revenue companies expect to generate in the future declines, while financing those same projects becomes more expensive.
As a result, even if the economic potential of AI investments remains intact, generating financial returns from this growth can become more difficult.
Selling Pressure Spreads Across the AI Ecosystem
Financing concerns have not been limited to CoreWeave. Selling pressure has also emerged in companies associated with AI infrastructure, chip manufacturing, and data center investments.
Declines in the shares of companies such as Oracle, Nebius, and Dell indicate that investors are beginning to assess the AI theme more selectively. In addition to strong demand and growth expectations, the market is paying closer attention to the cost of financing that growth.
This distinction is particularly important for companies with high debt levels and substantial capital expenditure requirements. Financially stronger technology giants and infrastructure providers that rely more heavily on external financing may need to be assessed as separate risk categories.
Is the Bigger Concern Financing Risk Rather Than an AI Bubble?
The long-term growth potential of AI technology and the financial sustainability of investments in the sector are two different issues.
Companies may have strong demand, substantial order volumes, and long-term customer contracts. However, if investment costs, debt interest, and required capital expenditures rise faster than revenues, growth may fail to deliver the expected value for shareholders.
For this reason, investors need to focus not only on the growth in AI adoption but also on companies' cash flows, debt-servicing capacity, financing expenses, and investment payback periods.
Profitability Is Now the Market's Focus
The key factors influencing U.S. equity markets in the coming period include inflation data, the Fed's interest rate policy, Treasury yields, and the financial results of AI investments.
If interest rates remain elevated, the cost of debt-financed data center investments could increase. If credit market risk perceptions deteriorate, companies may be forced to seek more expensive financing or revise their investment plans.
The central question for the AI sector is no longer simply how much demand will grow, but whether that growth can translate into sustainable profits. In the coming period, the performance gap between companies with strong balance sheets, manageable debt costs, and healthy cash flows and businesses dependent on aggressive borrowing may become more pronounced.
$BTC

How Will the U.S. Midterm Elections Affect Markets? A Critical Period for Stocks and Sectors
As the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections approach, investors have begun assessing the potential impact of political uncertainty on stocks, bonds, and various sectors. Coinciding with geopolitical tensions, the inflation outlook, and the Fed's interest rate policy, the elections are expected to increase market volatility in the final part of the year.
Historical data show that the U.S. stock market delivers more modest returns in midterm election years compared with other years, while a strong recovery trend often emerges in the period following the elections. However, there is no guarantee that past performance will be repeated in the future.
The S&P 500 Posts More Modest Gains During Midterm Election Years
According to data dating back to 1931, the S&P 500 index has delivered an average return of 4.7% during U.S. midterm election years. In years without midterm elections, the index's average annual return has been 9.5%.
Recent examples also show that the political calendar can coincide with periods of market uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 18.1% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2022. Alongside political developments, the Fed's interest rate hikes and tightening financial conditions played significant roles in these declines.
Therefore, political outcomes are not the only factor determining market direction during midterm election periods. Inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and corporate earnings also continue to play decisive roles in investors' decisions.
Tendency for Stocks to Recover After the Elections
One notable aspect of historical performance is the potential for equities to perform more strongly after the elections have concluded.
The S&P 500 has gained an average of 6.4% in fourth quarters following midterm elections. Since 1970, it has also delivered an average return of 6.5% over the three-month period following midterm elections.
Longer-term data point to a similar trend. Since 1962, the S&P 500 has not recorded a negative return during the 12-month periods following midterm elections, with the average gain reaching 16.33%.
This performance suggests that reduced political uncertainty once election results become clear could support investor confidence. However, major economic factors, such as monetary policy or geopolitical risks, could override this historical trend.
Why Does Congressional Control Matter for Markets?
The November 3 elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, and 36 state governorships.
Republicans hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate, while their advantage in the House of Representatives is limited to just five seats. As a result, the election outcome could directly affect the political room President Donald Trump has to maneuver on economic and foreign policy during the second half of his term.
Expectations that Democrats could win control of the House of Representatives are gaining ground, while the Senate race is expected to be more competitive. Results in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa could prove critical in determining control of the Senate.
A shift in the balance of power in Congress could affect tax policies, government spending, regulations, and budget decisions. This uncertainty could increase price volatility, particularly in sectors where political decisions directly affect corporate revenues.
Trump's Approval Rating and Political Uncertainty
President Trump's public approval rating falling to 35% or below in some polls has intensified debate over the direction of the election race. Meanwhile, his support remaining at higher levels among Republican voters shows that the political landscape varies across voter groups.
Prediction markets favor the possibility of Democrats winning the House of Representatives, while the outlook for the Senate remains less clear.
In addition, many members of Congress are not seeking reelection, creating opportunities for new candidates to enter the race in certain districts. This increases the possibility that the existing political balance could shift in unexpected ways.
Which Sectors Stand Out During Midterm Elections?
Sector performance during past midterm election years suggests that investors tend to favor more defensive sectors before elections and shift toward more cyclical sectors afterward.
The healthcare sector has historically stood out during midterm election years, delivering an average return of 10.7%. The energy sector has also attracted attention with an average gain of 8.9%. Meanwhile, industrials and financials have tended to post relatively flat performance during the same periods.
Before elections, relatively defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, communication services, and utilities can remain more resilient. Because demand for these companies' products and services is less sensitive to the economic cycle, they may attract investor interest during periods of uncertainty.
After elections, cyclical consumer sectors, energy, financials, industrials, technology, and materials companies may deliver stronger performance. Reduced political uncertainty and investors reassessing their economic growth expectations can support this trend.
However, as sector performance varies depending on economic conditions, historical averages alone are not sufficient grounds for making investment decisions.
The Fed's Interest Rate Policy Could Matter More Than the Elections
As the U.S. midterm elections approach, investors may need to look beyond political outcomes. The Fed's fight against inflation and the future path of interest rates will continue to be critical factors influencing the direction of equity markets.
High interest rates increase companies' financing costs and can reduce the present value of future earnings. This can put pressure on technology companies, particularly those with high valuations. Conversely, declining interest rate expectations can support a recovery in equities.
The elections' potential impact on foreign and trade policy will also be closely monitored for its implications for energy prices, the dollar, and global risk appetite. Consequently, the market impact of the political outcome will largely depend on the prevailing economic environment.
A Critical Period for Markets Ahead of the November Elections
The U.S. midterm elections are among the key developments investors will be watching closely in the final part of 2026. Although historical data suggest that returns may be more modest before elections and performance may strengthen afterward, current economic and geopolitical conditions could produce a different outcome.
In the coming period, the balance of power in Congress, the Fed's interest rate decisions, inflation data, and corporate financial results will jointly influence market direction.
For investors, the central challenge will be distinguishing short-term volatility caused by the elections from longer-term economic trends. Reduced political uncertainty could support equities; however, persistently high interest rates or escalating geopolitical risks could limit the recovery expected after the elections.
$BTC

AI BOOM DRIVES UP COMPUTER PRICES: U.S. TECHNOLOGY INFLATION HITS A 20-YEAR HIGH
Massive investments in AI infrastructure have coincided with a notable increase in consumer technology prices in the United States. September inflation data revealed one of the sharpest annual increases in computer and hardware prices in the past two decades, bringing the impact of AI demand on prices into the economic spotlight.
Annual Increase in Computer Prices Reaches 9.7%
In September, prices for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants rose 9.7% year over year. This marked the highest annual increase recorded since at least 2006.
Annual price increases for computer software and accessories reached 28.4%. The data show that cost pressures on technology products are not limited to hardware but are also spreading across different product categories.
AI Investments Are Driving Up Costs
Technology companies are increasing spending on data centers, advanced processors, and high-performance servers, strengthening demand across the hardware supply chain. Intense demand for advanced processors from manufacturers such as Nvidia is making capacity constraints and supply costs increasingly important.
The expansion of investment in AI infrastructure can create upward price pressure in areas where production capacity and component supplies cannot keep pace with demand. The extent to which these effects are passed on to consumer technology products will be closely monitored in the coming months.
A New Inflation Risk for the Fed
Rising technology prices are among the factors that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. In particular, if AI investments continue to push up costs in sectors beyond energy and housing, the risk of inflationary pressures spreading more broadly could increase.
The rise in U.S. consumer inflation to 3.7% year over year in September also indicates that price pressures persist. If increases in technology prices become entrenched alongside energy costs, the Fed may need to take a more cautious approach to monetary policy.
AI Growth Could Fuel Inflation
AI is expected to improve productivity and reduce production costs over the long term. However, before these gains fully materialize, infrastructure spending, chip demand, and energy requirements can generate inflationary effects in the short term.
The critical question for markets is whether these cost increases will prove to be a temporary consequence of an investment cycle or spread to consumer prices and develop into more persistent inflationary pressure.
If AI investment continues to support economic growth while also pushing prices higher, the Fed may face an increasingly difficult balancing act between sustaining economic expansion and keeping inflation under control.
$BTC

U.S. INFLATION DATA DUE WEDNESDAY: THE FED’S OCTOBER DECISION DEPENDS ON CPI AS MARKETS PREPARE FOR FOUR SCENARIOS
Spot: The U.S. September CPI data will be released on Wednesday, October 14, at 15:30 TRT. Record gasoline prices will push headline inflation higher, while attention will focus on core inflation. Markets are assigning approximately a 20% probability to an October rate hike; a hot reading could change this outlook in a single move.
WHAT TIME WILL THE DATA BE RELEASED, AND WHAT IS EXPECTED?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, at 08:30 New York time, or 15:30 TRT. This is the last major inflation indicator before the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting.
Indicator: Headline CPI (YoY)
August (Previous): 3.4%
September Expectation: 3.6%–3.7%
Indicator: Headline CPI (MoM)
August (Previous): 0.4%
September Expectation: 0.5%–0.6%
Indicator: Core CPI (YoY)
August (Previous): 2.4%
September Expectation: 2.4%
Indicator: Core CPI (MoM)
August (Previous): 0.3%
September Expectation: 0.2%
The market consensus points to annual headline inflation of 3.7%. The Cleveland Fed’s real-time nowcasting model, meanwhile, points to 3.60% for headline inflation and 2.39% for core inflation.
WHY WILL HEADLINE INFLATION RISE?
The reason is energy, in one word. The war with Iran and disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated. Brent crude traded at around $107 per barrel at the end of September. The average U.S. gasoline price rose to $4.33 per gallon in September, a historical record for the month and more than $1 above the level recorded a year earlier.
In the August data, gasoline alone rose 3.9% month over month, accounting for more than one-third of the total increase. Energy prices rose 16.3% year over year, while airline ticket prices increased 23.4%. Energy is expected to make an even larger contribution to headline inflation in September.
WHY IS CORE INFLATION CRITICAL?
The Fed looks at core inflation, which excludes food and energy, to answer the question: “Are price pressures spreading throughout the economy?” In August, annual core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since March 2021. However, the monthly rate accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. Part of the low annual figure reflects a high base effect from 2025. For this reason, the market will focus on the monthly core reading this time.
Another point to watch: the indicator targeted by the Fed is PCE. In August, annual core PCE stood at 3.0%. In other words, core CPI at 2.4% does not mean that inflation is close to the Fed’s target.
Key subcomponents to monitor include housing (rent and owners’ equivalent rent, or OER), airline tickets, transportation services, and “supercore” inflation (core services excluding housing). These categories will provide the earliest indication of whether higher fuel costs are spilling over into service prices.
THE FED’S POSITION
On September 16, the Fed delivered its first rate hike since July 2023, raising the policy rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was unanimous. The Dot Plot shows a median year-end rate of 4.1%, implying one additional 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026.
The September meeting minutes, released on October 7, revealed that most policymakers considered another rate hike by year-end appropriate. However, the timing remains uncertain:
Waller: Said further rate hikes may be necessary, but they do not have to occur at consecutive meetings.Williams: Another hike this year is “reasonable,” but there is no need to rush.Bowman and Jefferson: More cautious about additional rate hikes.
Weak September employment data also lowered expectations: nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, compared with expectations of approximately 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. Because wages are lagging behind inflation, real wages are eroding. Some analysts interpret this picture as a stagflation risk.
According to CME FedWatch data, the market is pricing in an approximately 20% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting and a probability above 80% of at least one hike by December. The fact that the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will take place just six days after the Fed meeting is another factor supporting a “wait-and-see” approach in October.
Treasury Yields and the Dollar: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% on October 1, its highest level since 2002, and climbed as high as 5.36% on October 7. The 2-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to the 102.3 area following the release of the minutes.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS: HOW COULD MARKETS REACT TO THE DATA?
HOT DATA
Headline inflation at 3.8% or higher, monthly core inflation at 0.4% or higher
This scenario would mean that the energy shock is spreading to core prices. An October rate hike, which the market has assigned a low probability to, would come back into consideration, and discussions could begin about a 50-basis-point move in December.
Dollar (DXY): Strong rally. Short-term interest rate expectations shift in favor of the dollar.EUR/USD: Downward pressure.USD/JPY: Moves higher. The 160 level will be monitored as a critical threshold because of the risk of Japanese intervention.U.S. Treasury yields: Sharp increases, particularly in the 2-year yield. The 10-year yield could retest its 5.36% peak.Gold: Remains under pressure. As a non-yielding asset, gold is negatively affected by rising real yields. The eight-week low area around $4,110, recorded on September 28, could come back into focus. However, a decline in the geopolitical risk premium could limit losses.Bitcoin and crypto: Selling pressure as risk appetite declines and liquidity expectations tighten. The risk of liquidations in leveraged positions is high, and altcoins could fall more sharply than Bitcoin.U.S. stock markets: Selling pressure. The technology-heavy Nasdaq would be more severely affected as the index most sensitive to higher discount rates.Emerging markets and the Turkish lira: A strong dollar and high U.S. interest rates could trigger outflows from emerging-market assets. Foreign selling on Borsa Istanbul and upward pressure on the exchange rate could follow.
IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS (NORMAL DATA)
Headline inflation at 3.6%–3.7%, monthly core inflation at 0.2%–0.3%, annual core inflation at 2.4%
The market’s current pricing remains intact: no hike in October, followed by a hike in December. The increase in headline inflation is interpreted as “energy-driven and temporary.”
Dollar: Limited movement; the initial reaction quickly stabilizes.Treasury yields: Move sideways.Gold: Geopolitical developments and the dollar remain the key drivers of direction; no significant data-driven impact is expected.Bitcoin: Data-driven volatility is short-lived, and the crypto market returns to its own drivers, including ETF flows and funding rates.Stock markets: Attention shifts to bank earnings released the same day, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, as well as details on supercore inflation.
One point to watch in this scenario is the rounding effect. The BLS reports figures to one decimal place; both 0.26% and 0.34% would appear as “0.3%.” Since algorithms calculate the unrounded figures within seconds, the initial reaction could move in either direction even if the published figure matches expectations.
GOOD (COOL) DATA
Headline inflation at 3.5% or lower, monthly core inflation at 0.1% or lower
Combined with weak employment data, this would strengthen the argument that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The possibility of a December hike would also come under scrutiny.
Dollar: Noticeable weakening.EUR/USD: Moves higher.USD/JPY: Downward correction.Treasury yields: Decline, particularly at the 2-year maturity.Gold: Becomes one of the biggest beneficiaries, supported by both falling real yields and a weaker dollar.Bitcoin and crypto: An upward reaction as liquidity expectations improve. Altcoins could also become more active in this scenario.U.S. stock markets: Rally, with technology stocks leading the way.Emerging markets and the Turkish lira: A weaker dollar supports risk appetite and could have a positive effect on Borsa Istanbul.
MIXED SCENARIO (SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED)
Headline inflation at 3.8% or higher, monthly core inflation at 0.2% or lower
This is one of the more plausible surprises this month. Elevated headline inflation driven by energy alongside subdued core inflation would send the message: “There is an energy shock, but it is not spreading.” Markets could initially react to the headline figure within seconds and then reverse direction based on the core reading. Gold and oil could maintain their upward momentum, while the dollar and Treasury yields could remain directionless. Bitcoin, meanwhile, could recover after an initial decline.
WHAT TO WATCH ON THE SAME DAY AND AFTERWARD (TRT)
Wednesday, October 14, 15:30: U.S. September CPIOctober 14: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings (before the market opens), ASML earningsOctober 14, 21:00: Fed Beige BookOctober 15, 15:30: U.S. September PPIOctober 28, 21:00: Fed interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Chair Kevin WarshOctober 29, 15:30: U.S. September PCE and advance estimate of third-quarter GDPNovember 3: U.S. midterm elections
INVESTOR CHECKLIST
Check the latest consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcast figures immediately before the release.Look at monthly core CPI first; this is where the market’s main reaction will come from.Monitor airline tickets, transportation, and supercore components to see whether the impact of fuel costs is spreading.Compare the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield before and after the release; this is the clearest indicator of changes in Fed expectations.Remember that the initial market move can reverse within minutes.Spreads widen around data releases, and stop orders may execute at worse-than-expected prices due to slippage. Reducing position sizes in leveraged trades is a fundamental risk management measure.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What time will the U.S. CPI data be released?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 15:30 TRT.
What is the expected September CPI reading?
Annual headline inflation is expected at 3.6%–3.7%, while annual core inflation is expected at 2.4% and monthly core inflation at 0.2%.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in October?
According to market pricing, the probability is low, at around 20%. However, a sharp increase in core inflation could quickly raise this probability.
How would hot inflation data affect Bitcoin?
It generally reduces risk appetite by pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher, creating selling pressure on Bitcoin.
How would inflation data affect gold?
Hot data puts pressure on gold by raising real yields, while cool data supports gold through falling yields and a weaker dollar. Geopolitical risks can sometimes weaken this relationship.
CONCLUSION
An increase in headline inflation in Wednesday’s data is almost certain; the real question is whether the energy shock is spilling over into core prices. If core inflation comes in line with expectations, the main scenario remains that the Fed will hold rates in October and signal a move in December. An upside surprise in core inflation could trigger sharp repricing across the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets. For a Fed caught between a weakening labor market and persistent energy inflation, this report is one of the most critical turning points in determining the interest rate path for the remainder of the year.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

米雇用統計（非農業部門雇用者数）データの後、ビットコインはどう動いたのか？市場の最初の反応は何を示しているのか？
米国で9月の雇用統計（非農業部門雇用者数、NFP）が発表され、労働市場の減速が続いていることが示されました。非農業部門雇用者数は9月に増加したものの、その増加幅はわずか2万9,000人でした。市場予想は約9万人でした。一方で、失業率は4.2%に上昇しました。さらに、7月と8月の雇用者数は合わせて6万人分下方修正されました。
データ発表後、ビットコインの初動は上方向でした。雇用関連の弱さは、FRBの金融政策がさらに引き締め方向に進む可能性が低下し得るという見方を後押ししました。実際、ロイターによると、市場はデータ後、10月の利上げ見通しを大幅に引き下げましたが、一方でリスク資産はプラスの値動きを見せました。

🔐 一日の取引終了時点のマーケットレポート — 2026年10月2日
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🌐 本日の主要ニュース

米国の9月の非農業部門雇用者数は2.9万人となり、予想の8.4万人を大きく下回った。一方、失業率は4.1%から4.2%へ上昇した。10月に利上げが行われる可能性はほぼ織り込まれなくなり、国債利回りは低下した。

ウォール街は堅調に取引を開始した。S&P 500は約0.9%上昇、ダウは0.6%上昇、ナスダックは1.35%上昇した。エヌビディアは新記録を更新し、市場時価総額が5.7兆ドルに到達。一方、ナイキは業績不振の売上と2027年の雇用削減計画を受けて7%下落した。

米国の労働市場、ブレーキが踏まれる：非農業部門雇用者数は予想を大幅に下回り2万9,000
9月の非農業部門雇用者数は、予想の9万人に対してわずか2万9,000となり、失業率は4.2%に上昇した。弱いデータにより、10月のFOMC（米連邦準備制度理事会）の追加利上げが行われる可能性は大きく低下した。
米国労働統計局（BLS）は、米国労働省のもとで、TRT15:30に9月の雇用統計を公表した。報告によると、米国経済は9月に2万9,000人の雇用を追加し、市場予想の9万人を大きく下回った。ダウ・ジョーンズの調査では、エコノミストが雇用者数の増加を8万4,000人、失業率は4.1%で据え置き、年収（賃金）成長率は3.1%と見込んでいた。