Is the Market Preparing for Another Major Rotation?
The Altseason Everyone Is Waiting For May Still Be Far Away.
I have been watching one particular market metric recently, and I think it deserves more attention than another random altcoin price prediction: Bitcoin Dominance.
As of November 9, 2026, Bitcoin dominance is hovering around 60.2%, representing approximately 60% of the entire $2.48 trillion crypto market capitalization. It has gained around 0.66 percentage points over the last 30 days.
But here is what makes this situation interesting.
The Altcoin Season Index is currently at just 37/100, compared with 63/100 thirty days ago. This tells me that broad based altcoin outperformance is still missing, even though some individual tokens are producing impressive rallies.
Another concerning signal: recent market reporting indicates that approximately 70% of altcoins are trading below their 200-day moving averages.
What Is Actually Happening?
Bitcoin is maintaining a larger share of the crypto market while many smaller projects struggle to recover.
This does not automatically mean that Bitcoin is attracting fresh capital. Dominance is a relative market capitalization metric. It can rise because Bitcoin falls less than altcoins, not necessarily because new money is entering BTC.
That distinction is extremely important.
The Technical Indicators I Am Watching
I would focus on four things before making any directional decision:
BTC.D RSI (14): A move above 60 would indicate strengthening dominance momentum; bearish divergence could warn of weakening momentum.
BTC.D MACD: A bullish crossover on the daily chart could support further dominance expansion.
EMA 50 and EMA 200: Their alignment can help identify whether the broader dominance trend remains bullish.
TOTAL3: A breakout above its recent resistance, accompanied by falling BTC dominance, could indicate improving altcoin strength.
What Could Happen Next?
I see two possible scenarios.
Scenario 1 👉 Bitcoin Continues to Dominate.
If BTC maintains its upward structure and Bitcoin remains relatively stronger than the broader market, altcoins could face further pressure. In this environment, chasing random pumps can become an expensive mistake.
Scenario 2 👉 Capital Rotation Begins.
If Bitcoin stabilizes, BTC starts making lower highs, and TOTAL3 breaks resistance with increasing volume, we could begin seeing capital rotate into Ethereum and selected altcoins.
However, a falling dominance chart alone is not enough. We need confirmation from ETH/BTC, TOTAL3 and the Altcoin Season Index.
My Personal Trading Perspective
I am not calling the beginning of altseason, and I am certainly not saying that every altcoin is ready to pump.
I would rather monitor capital rotation than follow social media hype.
For me, the next important opportunity will not necessarily come from buying the biggest declining altcoin. It will come from identifying which projects are attracting real demand, showing stronger relative performance and maintaining healthy volume.
One question I want traders to think about!
Are we actually waiting for altseason, or are we ignoring the fact that the market is becoming increasingly selective about which altcoins deserve capital?
Sometimes, the most important market signal is not the price of a token. It is where the market's strength is moving.
#altcoins #BTC走势分析 #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #Binance $BTC
