AI equities are in full risk-off mode. Good earnings = dump.
$PLTR crushed Q4, nailed the AI sovereignty + FDE enterprise play. Down 8% premarket. $GOOGL, CoreWeave, entire AI basket bleeding.
We've officially left hype season. Now it's diligence season:
- Are data center ROIs real or vaporware?
- Is China actually innovating or just distilling?
- Can big labs capture value or just sell tokens at razor margins?
- Does open source eat everyone's lunch?
- FDEs vs no FDEs - does it even matter?
Benchmark wins don't move stocks anymore. Nobody cares. They want AI that replaces their entire workday, not another chatbot.
Sentiment is a brick wall right now.
The trade: Long $BTC, out of AI equities short-term. As AI stocks weaken, all the hidden leverage and off-balance sheet tricks unwind fast.
Eventual plays:
- Cheap secondaries in top private AI names
- Next-gen models (non-LLM)
- AI equities on a real capitulation dip
But right now? Step aside. Let the froth clear.
$PLTR crushed Q4, nailed the AI sovereignty + FDE enterprise play. Down 8% premarket. $GOOGL, CoreWeave, entire AI basket bleeding.
We've officially left hype season. Now it's diligence season:
- Are data center ROIs real or vaporware?
- Is China actually innovating or just distilling?
- Can big labs capture value or just sell tokens at razor margins?
- Does open source eat everyone's lunch?
- FDEs vs no FDEs - does it even matter?
Benchmark wins don't move stocks anymore. Nobody cares. They want AI that replaces their entire workday, not another chatbot.
Sentiment is a brick wall right now.
The trade: Long $BTC, out of AI equities short-term. As AI stocks weaken, all the hidden leverage and off-balance sheet tricks unwind fast.
Eventual plays:
- Cheap secondaries in top private AI names
- Next-gen models (non-LLM)
- AI equities on a real capitulation dip
But right now? Step aside. Let the froth clear.