Something interesting happened yesterday that most people missed.
Oil dropped 8%. Nasdaq reversed hard and closed down 1.1%.
You'd expect the 10-year Treasury to rally, right? Flight to safety, falling inflation expectations, risk-off mood.
Instead? It barely budged. Closed at 4.91%.
That's weird. When risk assets sell off and oil tanks, bonds usually catch a bid. But they didn't.
Either the bond market doesn't believe the oil move matters, or it's worried about something else — supply, deficits, inflation stickiness, Fed credibility.
Or maybe it's just numb. After months of whipsaw, maybe bonds just don't react to daily noise anymore.
Either way, when the usual relationships stop working, pay attention. It's often a sign something structural is shifting underneath.
Oil dropped 8%. Nasdaq reversed hard and closed down 1.1%.
You'd expect the 10-year Treasury to rally, right? Flight to safety, falling inflation expectations, risk-off mood.
Instead? It barely budged. Closed at 4.91%.
That's weird. When risk assets sell off and oil tanks, bonds usually catch a bid. But they didn't.
Either the bond market doesn't believe the oil move matters, or it's worried about something else — supply, deficits, inflation stickiness, Fed credibility.
Or maybe it's just numb. After months of whipsaw, maybe bonds just don't react to daily noise anymore.
Either way, when the usual relationships stop working, pay attention. It's often a sign something structural is shifting underneath.
