Bitcoin made a modest recovery over the weekend, moving back toward $79,000 after the sharp sell-off that followed the $6.3B Binance security breach.
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But for me, this recovery still looks fragile.
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$BTC is entering a very important 48-hour window, with the U.S. midterm elections tomorrow, November 3, followed by NFP on November 6.
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At the same time, ETF flows, on-chain positioning, and several important technical levels are all telling us that volatility could remain elevated.
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So the real question is:
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Can Bitcoin defend the $77,140 area and build a stronger recovery, or is another major bearish move approaching?
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Macro & ETF Outlook
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Institutional demand weakened significantly at the end of October.
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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $643M in net outflows on October 30 alone, bringing October to roughly $515M in total net withdrawals.
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For me, this matters because Bitcoin is currently trying to stabilize while one of its most important sources of institutional demand has temporarily weakened.
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ETF outflows do not automatically mean Bitcoin must continue falling, but they reduce one of the forces that previously helped absorb selling pressure.
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At the same time, a weaker U.S. Dollar and declining oil prices could provide some support for risk assets.
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So the macro picture is not completely bearish — but it is still fragile.
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The $77,140 On-Chain Level
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One of the most important levels I am watching right now comes from on-chain data.
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The average cost basis of recent Bitcoin market participants is currently near $77,140.
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This means many newer buyers entered the market around this area.
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As long as Bitcoin remains above approximately ($76,300-$77,140), these traders are still relatively protected.
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But if BTC loses this zone decisively, more recent buyers could move into losses.
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That can increase fear, selling pressure, and the possibility of another liquidation-driven decline.
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For me, $77,140 is not just another technical level.
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It is an important psychological and on-chain battleground.
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U.S. Midterm Elections — Why Tomorrow Matters
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Tomorrow, November 3, Americans head to the polls for the U.S. midterm elections.
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Democrats currently lead national polling, with the House appearing more vulnerable to a change in control, while the Senate remains a much tighter contest.
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From a crypto perspective, a Republican hold could be interpreted as greater policy continuity for the industry, especially after recent efforts toward clearer digital-asset regulation.
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A stronger Democratic result could reshape parts of the regulatory agenda and potentially slow or modify some crypto-related legislation.
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But for traders, I believe something else may be even more important:
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The market reaction depends heavily on whether the result matches expectations.
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Markets often react more aggressively to surprises than to the expected political outcome itself.
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That means election night could create sudden moves, False Breakouts, liquidity hunts, and leveraged liquidations before Bitcoin establishes a clearer direction.
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And only a few days later, NFP on November 6 adds another major macro catalyst.
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Technical Analysis
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On the technical side, Bitcoin is currently trading close to several important Resistance Lines, the Resistance Zone ($79,150-$80,400), and the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage ($78,120-$80,200).
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From a classical technical analysis perspective, BTC also appears to be forming a Bearish Flag Pattern.
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For now, the important level I am watching is $78,120.
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As long as Bitcoin remains below this level, I believe the bearish scenario still deserves more attention.
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If buyers manage to reclaim $78,120 and then push through $80,200, the short-term structure could begin to improve.
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But until that happens, I remain cautious.
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Bearish Scenario
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My main scenario over the next 48 hours is for Bitcoin to remain highly volatile and potentially move lower again.
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The first important downside area is around the Support Zone, together with the 50_SMA(Weekly) and the 100_SMA(Daily).
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Below that, the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage ($75,930-$76,160) becomes especially important.
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This is an area where I would expect at least some reaction because of the concentration of leveraged Long positions.
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However, if selling pressure remains strong and this zone fails, the next major liquidity area sits around ($73,920-$75,000).
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That could become the next target for a deeper bearish move.
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Bullish Scenario
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I do not completely ignore the bullish side.
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Bitcoin has already shown that buyers are willing to react around the lower support areas.
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If BTC can defend the ($76,300-$77,140) region, reclaim $78,120, and then break above $80,200, the bearish structure would begin to weaken.
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In that case, Bitcoin could attempt another move toward the upper part of the Resistance Zone ($79,150-$80,400) and potentially beyond.
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But I want confirmation first.
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Trade Setup
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Take Profit: $76,670
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Stop Loss: $80,330
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Key Trading Levels:
$77,140
$78,120
$80,200
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Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage:
($75,930-$76,160)
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Deeper Long Liquidation Area:
($73,920-$75,000)
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My Bitcoin Outlook
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For me, this is not the moment to become emotionally bullish or bearish.
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Bitcoin is sitting between several important macro, political, on-chain, and technical catalysts at the same time.
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ETF demand has weakened.
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The $77,140 cost basis is under pressure.
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The U.S. election arrives tomorrow.
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NFP follows only a few days later.
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And Bitcoin is still trading below important resistance.
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That combination can create exactly the kind of environment where traders get trapped by the first move.
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So I will continue focusing on the levels rather than the headlines.
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For now, my main scenario remains bearish while Bitcoin stays below $78,120 and $80,200.
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A move toward $76,670 remains possible, while a break below the lower liquidity zones could open the door to a much deeper correction.
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But if buyers reclaim the key levels with strong momentum, I will be ready to change the scenario.
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That is the most important part of trading:
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Do not become attached to one direction. Let price confirm the next move.
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Which level do you think Bitcoin will reach first?
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🔴 $76,670
🟢 $80,330
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#bitcoin