Bitcoin topped near $86K in early October and slid to around $78K by month-end. Yet the Spot Volume Bubble Map never flipped to “Heating” or “Overheating” during this entire stretch. Across all of 2026, the only heating signals were a handful of dots during the February sell-off.

The year breaks into three phases. The April–May rebound and the July–August consolidation both printed green “Cooling” bubbles, meaning price moved while spot volume stayed cold. Then the late-August jump from $65K to $78K flipped the bubbles to gray “Neutral,” and that state has held through the September–October rally and the current pullback.

This shift is the key. Moving from cooling to neutral means spot demand has recovered to roughly average levels. But even at the $86K high, there was no overheating. Cycle tops usually come with a volume explosion as retail chases price. That footprint is missing here. The decline is also unfolding on neutral volume, which reads more like profit-taking than capitulation.

The bear case is real, though. October printed a series of slightly lower highs, and price lost the $80K support by month-end. Recall January: the decline from the yearly high also began under neutral bubbles, and volume only spiked after price fell to about $63K in February. Neutral volume is not a guarantee of safety.

A correction without overheating suggests the market has not yet formed a top, but direction remains unclear until the $75K area proves it can hold.

This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.

Written by Rich_dady