$BTC Is Down 4% This Month. $ETH Is Down 12%. The hawkish hold put December at 85%. Only one of the two coins is attracting buyers. The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday in a 10–2 vote, with two officials wanting a hike, and futures now price about 85% odds of one on December 9. The 10-year yield is back above 5%. $BTC ended near $81,000, up about 0.5%, and $ETH near $2,354, up about 0.4%. Both reactions were muted. Bitcoin is the calm one. Its 90-day volatility is about 38%, U.S. spot ETFs took in roughly $424 million over three sessions, and it has held above the $79,250 low from Monday, its weakest print since July. Support sits at $79,000–80,000, then $76,000–78,000. Resistance is $83,000–84,000, then $87,400. Strategy paused buying last week, but Strive added 6,182 BTC. Ethereum is the weak one. Its drop is three times Bitcoin’s, which pushed ETH/BTC to about 0.029 while Bitcoin’s dominance sits near 60%. Spot ETH ETFs have lost over $1 billion this month, their fourth straight weekly outflow, and the Coinbase Premium Index is at its lowest since February, a sign of U.S. selling. ETH bounced off its 200-day average and faces $2,355, then $2,400. Below $2,300, QCP flags $2,150. Four events decide which story wins: Strategy and Coinbase earnings tonight, about $11 billion in options expiring Friday with max pain between $76,000 and $79,000, the midterms on November 3 and the December 9 meeting. A hike that is 85% priced is mostly in the price, so the real question is whether ETH’s ETF outflows stop first. #Altcoin Season# #BTC Price Analysis# #ETHBlockchain