Radar #8 update: my $PREDICT Key is in, and the sale ran about 37.6x oversubscribed.
I put in 6 BNB. I got back 5.84031 BNB and 409.75712 PREDICT Key. Only about 0.16 BNB stayed in. That sits right next to the 40x row in my article (385 $PREDICT )
What that Key is worth:
- At the sale price of $0.29: about $119.
- At the futures price of $1.30 (12:33 UTC): about $533.
Next steps (UTC):
- Oct 30, 09:00: Alpha debut and trading. The real PREDICT arrives in the Alpha account.
- Oct 30, 10:00: Binance lists PREDICT on spot: PREDICT/USDT, PREDICT/USDC and PREDICT/TRY.
Want to lock the profit now? The PREDICT perp on Binance Futures trades near $1.30. Short the same size as your Key and your result no longer depends on the price.
My numbers: cost $119, value locked $533, profit locked about $414, whether PREDICT lists at $0.60 or $2.00.
The price of the hedge: margin. At 3x you tie up about $178, and the short liquidates near $1.70 if the price rises. Keep extra margin, or the hedge can fail right when PREDICT pumps.
I am not hedging. I keep the pure allocation. At $1.30 I think the token is at fair value, so a hedge is not worth the margin for me. I want to sell into a wick at the listing time, and I will sell anyway if no wick comes.
Without a hedge, the same Key makes $127 at $0.60, $291 at $1.00, $537 at $1.60 and $701 at $2.00. Hedged, it is $414 every time. Fees and funding not included.
How much of your 6 BNB came back? Will you hedge, sell at the open, or hold?
Experience, not financial advice.
I put in 6 BNB. I got back 5.84031 BNB and 409.75712 PREDICT Key. Only about 0.16 BNB stayed in. That sits right next to the 40x row in my article (385 $PREDICT )
What that Key is worth:
- At the sale price of $0.29: about $119.
- At the futures price of $1.30 (12:33 UTC): about $533.
Next steps (UTC):
- Oct 30, 09:00: Alpha debut and trading. The real PREDICT arrives in the Alpha account.
- Oct 30, 10:00: Binance lists PREDICT on spot: PREDICT/USDT, PREDICT/USDC and PREDICT/TRY.
Want to lock the profit now? The PREDICT perp on Binance Futures trades near $1.30. Short the same size as your Key and your result no longer depends on the price.
My numbers: cost $119, value locked $533, profit locked about $414, whether PREDICT lists at $0.60 or $2.00.
The price of the hedge: margin. At 3x you tie up about $178, and the short liquidates near $1.70 if the price rises. Keep extra margin, or the hedge can fail right when PREDICT pumps.
I am not hedging. I keep the pure allocation. At $1.30 I think the token is at fair value, so a hedge is not worth the margin for me. I want to sell into a wick at the listing time, and I will sell anyway if no wick comes.
Without a hedge, the same Key makes $127 at $0.60, $291 at $1.00, $537 at $1.60 and $701 at $2.00. Hedged, it is $414 every time. Fees and funding not included.
How much of your 6 BNB came back? Will you hedge, sell at the open, or hold?
Experience, not financial advice.
