Before I buy, I check one number: the win rate a trade needs just to break even. On $ZEC this morning it was 58%. Too high for me.
Yesterday I flagged ZEC resistance at 1,349 to 1,368 and support at 1,212. It didn't break. The high was 1,330.95, and price was 1,302 this morning.
The math for a long from 1,302:
- Stop under support at 1,212: risk 90
- Target at resistance 1,368: reward 66
- Breakeven win rate = risk / (risk + reward) = 90 / 156 = 58%
I'd need to be right almost 6 times out of 10 just to stay flat.
Same levels, better entry. If ZEC pulls back to 1,250:
- Risk to 1,212: 38
- Reward to 1,368: 118
- Breakeven win rate: 24%
Same chart. Only the entry changed, and the trade went from bad to good. The other option is to wait for a daily close above 1,368 and plan from there.
NFA. Would you take ZEC at 1,302, or wait for 1,250?
Yesterday I flagged ZEC resistance at 1,349 to 1,368 and support at 1,212. It didn't break. The high was 1,330.95, and price was 1,302 this morning.
The math for a long from 1,302:
- Stop under support at 1,212: risk 90
- Target at resistance 1,368: reward 66
- Breakeven win rate = risk / (risk + reward) = 90 / 156 = 58%
I'd need to be right almost 6 times out of 10 just to stay flat.
Same levels, better entry. If ZEC pulls back to 1,250:
- Risk to 1,212: 38
- Reward to 1,368: 118
- Breakeven win rate: 24%
Same chart. Only the entry changed, and the trade went from bad to good. The other option is to wait for a daily close above 1,368 and plan from there.
NFA. Would you take ZEC at 1,302, or wait for 1,250?
