Bought $QNT spot at 193.01 on Oct 28. It trades at 199.56 now, +3.4%. Here is why I took it and where I'm wrong.
The backdrop:
- Late September QNT ran from about 70 to a 373 wick in four days.
- Since then it has bled. The Oct 24 low at 173.56 sits about 53% under that wick.
- Oct 26 printed a 223.96 wick on 36M USDT volume, nearly 3x the prior week's daily average.
Why 193:
- After the Oct 24 flush, daily lows went 177.92, 187.79, 196.53, 192.52. Buyers keep stepping in above 173.
- 193 matches the Oct 18-20 closing area (192-195) and the 7-day average close (193.7).
- My fill came at 193.01, close to yesterday's 192.52 low.
- Perp funding is +0.008%, so longs are not crowded.
The plan:
- Position: spot, no leverage.
- Invalidation: daily close below 177.9, the Oct 25 low. Below that, 173.56 is likely next.
- Target 1: 213, the Oct 27 high.
- Target 2: 224, the Oct 26 wick.
- Risk to 177.9 is about 15 per coin, reward to 224 about 31. Roughly 1:2.
What I'm watching: a daily close above 213 would be the first higher high since the drop. If price rejects there again, I take part off.
NFA.
Your call: does $QNT reclaim 213 this week, or retest 193 first?
The backdrop:
- Late September QNT ran from about 70 to a 373 wick in four days.
- Since then it has bled. The Oct 24 low at 173.56 sits about 53% under that wick.
- Oct 26 printed a 223.96 wick on 36M USDT volume, nearly 3x the prior week's daily average.
Why 193:
- After the Oct 24 flush, daily lows went 177.92, 187.79, 196.53, 192.52. Buyers keep stepping in above 173.
- 193 matches the Oct 18-20 closing area (192-195) and the 7-day average close (193.7).
- My fill came at 193.01, close to yesterday's 192.52 low.
- Perp funding is +0.008%, so longs are not crowded.
The plan:
- Position: spot, no leverage.
- Invalidation: daily close below 177.9, the Oct 25 low. Below that, 173.56 is likely next.
- Target 1: 213, the Oct 27 high.
- Target 2: 224, the Oct 26 wick.
- Risk to 177.9 is about 15 per coin, reward to 224 about 31. Roughly 1:2.
What I'm watching: a daily close above 213 would be the first higher high since the drop. If price rejects there again, I take part off.
NFA.
Your call: does $QNT reclaim 213 this week, or retest 193 first?
