The Conference Board's labor differential just jumped 2.5 points to 5.3% in October.
That's the gap between people saying jobs are "plentiful" versus "hard to get."
Small move, but worth watching. When this number swings hard in either direction, it tends to precede shifts in consumer confidence and spending behavior.
Right now? Still positive, but nowhere near the frothy levels we saw in 2021-2022. People feel jobs exist, but the desperation to hire has cooled.
This is the kind of soft landing data the Fed dreams about. Not too hot, not collapsing. Just... normalizing.
Of course, the gap between perception and reality can be wide. People might *feel* jobs are available while quietly worrying about their own security.
The next few months will tell us if this uptick holds or if it's just noise in a longer cooling trend.
That's the gap between people saying jobs are "plentiful" versus "hard to get."
Small move, but worth watching. When this number swings hard in either direction, it tends to precede shifts in consumer confidence and spending behavior.
Right now? Still positive, but nowhere near the frothy levels we saw in 2021-2022. People feel jobs exist, but the desperation to hire has cooled.
This is the kind of soft landing data the Fed dreams about. Not too hot, not collapsing. Just... normalizing.
Of course, the gap between perception and reality can be wide. People might *feel* jobs are available while quietly worrying about their own security.
The next few months will tell us if this uptick holds or if it's just noise in a longer cooling trend.