📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 24/10/2026
Across 844 days of data, the correlation between FGI and daily Win Rate is approximately r = -0.293, compared with -0.304 in the previous update. The relationship remains negative but has weakened further, providing insufficient evidence to use FGI alone as a trade entry tool.
Trading performance in the sample tends to be lower during periods of greed, particularly extreme greed. FGI may provide context for assessing risk, but this correlation does not establish early-warning capability or causation.
Below are the average daily Win Rate (WR), theoretical breakeven R, and number of observed days (n) for each sentiment zone. R is expressed as risk, excluding fees and slippage:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R=1:1.47 • n=25
😌 Greed (60–<80): WR 44.5% • R=1:1.25 • n=267
😐 Neutral (40–<60): WR 45.5% • R=1:1.20 • n=166
😰 Fear (20–<40): WR 47.1% • R=1:1.12 • n=271
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.4% • R=1:0.91 • n=115
The percentage of days with a Win Rate above the full-sample daily average of 46.49% in each zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
😌 Greed: 34.1%
😐 Neutral: 39.8%
😰 Fear: 55.7%
😱 Extreme Fear: 67.8%
➤ These statistics illustrate the relationship between Win Rate and the R required to break even:
📈 At higher FGI levels, historical WR is lower, implying a higher breakeven reward relative to risk. However, setting more distant profit targets may change the Win Rate itself.
📉 At lower FGI levels, historical WR is higher, implying a lower breakeven reward relative to risk. This alone does not establish that reducing profit targets would accelerate capital turnover or improve performance.
#TradingPerformance $BNB $ETH $XRP
Across 844 days of data, the correlation between FGI and daily Win Rate is approximately r = -0.293, compared with -0.304 in the previous update. The relationship remains negative but has weakened further, providing insufficient evidence to use FGI alone as a trade entry tool.
Trading performance in the sample tends to be lower during periods of greed, particularly extreme greed. FGI may provide context for assessing risk, but this correlation does not establish early-warning capability or causation.
Below are the average daily Win Rate (WR), theoretical breakeven R, and number of observed days (n) for each sentiment zone. R is expressed as risk, excluding fees and slippage:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R=1:1.47 • n=25
😌 Greed (60–<80): WR 44.5% • R=1:1.25 • n=267
😐 Neutral (40–<60): WR 45.5% • R=1:1.20 • n=166
😰 Fear (20–<40): WR 47.1% • R=1:1.12 • n=271
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.4% • R=1:0.91 • n=115
The percentage of days with a Win Rate above the full-sample daily average of 46.49% in each zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
😌 Greed: 34.1%
😐 Neutral: 39.8%
😰 Fear: 55.7%
😱 Extreme Fear: 67.8%
➤ These statistics illustrate the relationship between Win Rate and the R required to break even:
📈 At higher FGI levels, historical WR is lower, implying a higher breakeven reward relative to risk. However, setting more distant profit targets may change the Win Rate itself.
📉 At lower FGI levels, historical WR is higher, implying a lower breakeven reward relative to risk. This alone does not establish that reducing profit targets would accelerate capital turnover or improve performance.
#TradingPerformance $BNB $ETH $XRP
