Bitcoin’s SOPR has climbed above 1.02, marking what appears to be its highest reading since November 2025, during the initial decline from the all-time high. The earlier spike was substantially larger, so the comparison concerns timing and rarity rather than equal intensity.

SOPR compares the USD value of spent coins with their value when their outputs were created. Above 1, those coins move at an aggregate profit. A reading near 1.02 implies roughly 2% profit relative to their recorded cost basis, not that 2% of holders are selling.

The notable feature is that profitability is expanding while Bitcoin remains well below its peak. This can reflect spending by holders with lower cost bases, including buyers of the earlier drawdown. It does not require the broader market to have recovered its losses. The spike therefore raises a question about potential profit-taking supply during the recovery.

However, SOPR measures profit intensity, not the volume of coins sold. Older profitable outputs can lift the ratio, and transfers do not necessarily represent sales. The chart alone cannot establish broad distribution or identify the responsible cohort.

Unlike the November episode, the latest spike follows months of readings around or below breakeven, making the recovery in spending profitability especially relevant.

The 30-period EMA has also moved modestly above 1, suggesting an improvement beyond a single observation. The next test is whether that profitability can persist without renewed price weakness. If SOPR cools toward 1 while price holds recent support, the pattern would be consistent with profit-taking being absorbed. Repeated spikes alongside stalled price, followed by a sustained move below 1, would instead strengthen the case for a fragile recovery.

The signal is a test of demand, not a standalone top call: the market is moving from loss realization toward renewed profitability, but the durability of that transition depends on how price responds.

Written by MorenoDV_