Finally, a forward looking indicator for the markets.
Taiwan and South Korea Chip Exports Lead US Earnings by 6 Months; No Downturn Signal Yet
The average of Taiwan and South Korea export growth, pushed forward six months, closely tracks MSCI US forward 12-month EPS growth.
Both countries are "significant producers of the chips that are the foundation of the AI investment boom" and are released monthly, with South Korea publishing a 10-day estimate around the 21st of each month.
Chip exports are "likely to detect the pullback with about a 3-6 month advance."
Crucially, as of the October 15, 2026 publication, "South Korea and Taiwan's exports currently give little sign that the investment cycle is imminently about to turn down."
When they do turn, that's also a cue for yields to decline since chip exports lead nominal GDP as well.
Taiwan and South Korea Chip Exports Lead US Earnings by 6 Months; No Downturn Signal Yet
The average of Taiwan and South Korea export growth, pushed forward six months, closely tracks MSCI US forward 12-month EPS growth.
Both countries are "significant producers of the chips that are the foundation of the AI investment boom" and are released monthly, with South Korea publishing a 10-day estimate around the 21st of each month.
Chip exports are "likely to detect the pullback with about a 3-6 month advance."
Crucially, as of the October 15, 2026 publication, "South Korea and Taiwan's exports currently give little sign that the investment cycle is imminently about to turn down."
When they do turn, that's also a cue for yields to decline since chip exports lead nominal GDP as well.